2012-13 Potential Bowl Running Dogs
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16 thoughts on “2012-13 Potential Bowl Running Dogs”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Is a potential bowl running dog a true running team or are some of them running teams because their QB sucks or there is no threat at WR? Dig a little deeper into the skill positions and if the teams are running teams because they have hogs upfront pushing dudes around. I bet the bowl running dogs w massive olines and run because they can cover at an even higher clip than 2/3…
JB, a potential bowl running dog is not necessarily a true running team. I use a combination of a team’s run offense and their run defense.
For example, SDSU is clearly a better running team than BYU, However BYU’s run defense is a lot better than SDSU’s. So based on my numbers I do not consider SDSU a potential bowl running dog, though in reality they may in fact outrush BYU.
So it is a combination of a teams ability to run the football effectively (not necessarily a lot) and their ability to stop the run.
Good trend. Running the ball and stopping the run is always a great recipe for covering, regardless whether a team is favored or an underdog. A lot of these teams usually lack “flash and flair”, and the public undersells them as a result. A lot of value can be found in these matchups if you can identify them correctly.
As you pointed out, the spread offense does kind of throw a wrench into this theory. A lot of teams utilize short-passes and bubble screens to move the defense up and set up the vertical passing game. This doesn’t show up in the stat column as running plays, but they are used the same way for the most part.
Too many high powered spread offenses who can throw the ball around and put major points in the board. Running the ball just isn’t good enough anymore.
I totally disagree. I’ll take Alabama, LSU, Stanford or Notre Dame’s power run game and their ability to stop the run over any spread offense in the country.
If you can’t run the football you are a one dimensional team and against a good team you are then in a lot of trouble.
A great example from this year is Notre Dame at OU. The Irish took the run away from the Sooners “high powered” spread offense and it was game over. Landry Jones didn’t have the time to throw the football.
Also, as OpeningLine alluges to, some of these spread offenses us their short passing game as an alternative (or a supplement) to their running game.
One last point, some of the best spread offenses are run oriented offenses …. Oregon being the best of the best. Stanford outrushed Oregon because of their ability to not only run the ball themselves, but because of their stout run D.
If a good defense can make you one dimensional, you are most likely in trouble.
Another point that I didn’t include and I believe is one of the reasons why an underdog that can outrush their opponent covers the spread at such a high percentage, is their ability to shorten the game.
As Ed mentions, high powered spread offenses can throw the ball around and put major points on the board. But a team that can run the football is going to limit the number of plays and possessions that some of these no-huddle, spread offenses run.
I agree with Pez on the running dogs. I’ll admit I got very frustrated last year at some of my running dogs plays. But much of it had to do with very close (tossup) lines, and some very close games to go along with it. A better bounce of the ball here or there and the running dogs would have come out with a winning record. Both Pez and I were very frustrated from last year’s bowls. I’ve never had a losing bowl season, but I came close last year ending with a 12-9-1 record.
I have a feeling with a few less tossup games on the menu that we’ll do better this year with the running dogs. All I can tell you non-believers of this system is to open up your Sunday paper during the regular season and look at the box scores. Show me a dog that outrushes their favored opponent, and I’ll show you about 80% winners without even having to look at the final score. It’s an important stat. There is no getting around it.
Now I don’t always play the running dogs blindly. There are cases where I simply don’t think they will outrush their opponent. Maybe because of taking a jump in class or possible injuries or just the way the team was playing in general at the end of the season. But all things being equal, you have to give the running dogs serious consideration. Especially in these bowls. And especially if they have a sizeable advantage in the run game.
Don’t get me wrong I also believe in your running dogs theory. However, I also believe that running the spread offense has lessened the need for a dominant run game. You still need to run the ball, but with teams like Baylor and West Virginia who can put 50 + points up, might fall short against a run dominant opponent. Btw. Followed T.S.E all season. All of your capers are outstanding, and have taught me a lot about ” the game” of beating the man.
Oops I meant that teams against Baylor and West Virginia who have more a run dominant offense might fall short in the end because of that lack of point production. Take a look at the NFL this past Sunday night. The Patriots who are spread/passing team just flat out crushed the Texans.
I kinda agree with both Pez/GS and Ed here. The spread offense has definitely changed the way the game is being played today, and that could be one of the reasons for the falloff of the running dog theory.
When you think about the schematics behind football, and the past 2-3 years, there is a clear advantage to the offense. Lets take out the Alabama’s, Georgia’s and Florida’s defenses for a second, because honestly, the talent level on all of those defense is all NFL caliber. A majority of the time on most teams, you have 1 or maybe 2 successful NFL caliber players.
The spread offense was designed to take advantage of both zone and man offenses, by utilizing space, as well as creating it. Teams that couple the spread with the zone read, and have a QB that can throw successfully are even more dangerous. There has not yet been a defense (besides those that are uber talented) that has been created to shut down this type of offense. You cannot do it. The other thing that the spread does, is it literally spreads the defense out. This opens up lots of running lanes as well. As Ed alluded too, Brady and New England have revamped their offense from 5 years ago, although it wouldn’t seem like it. Don’t be fooled, they aren’t just passing the ball. The reason why they are running over great defenses like Houston is because they get a half a second jump on the defense, and they know where they are supposed to be. That half a second is enough for a good QB and coach like Brady and Bill to absolutely rip you apart. Not only did Brady pass all over them, but they also ran pretty wild too on Houston, which is very tough to do.
I just think you hear about/and see much more offensive masterminds, than you hear about defensive masterminds, and if the running dogs can’t hold the opposing offense down, then they will be forced to throw to stay in it, which alot of these run teams struggle to do.
would you please clarify the rutgers selection as i have vatech outrushing them on both per game avg and per attempt. ty
Va Tech has a slight edge offensively, but the Rutgers run D is a lot better than Va Tech’s.
It is early in the bowl season, but I guarantee you that the team that wins the rushing battle will win the game (and probably cover) more often than not. There of course will be exceptions, but don’t underestimate the importance of the running game.
Nevada turned out to be a monster running dog outrusing Arizona by more than 200 yards, though by my method of arriving at the PRD they were not on my list. But this was one of those game were you could have given a good Nevada rush game the benefit of the doubt and still given them Potential Running Dog status.
Utah State outrushed Toledo by more than 200 yards (353-142).
GoSooners summarized it well — open up your paper the day after the game and look at the box scores. Show me a dog that outrushes their favored opponent, and I’ll show you about 80% winners (ATS) without even having to look at the final score.
Hello – been a long-time follower.
Would you be as kind to post your running dogs from last years bowl season? I am interested to see if some of those ATS winners correlate to the 10 teams or so that busted up my season picks from last year. If any correlation at all, maybe i need to tread lightly with my calculated plays when a running dog is the foe.
Thanks, and good luck.
P.S. For instance, I am no longer going to play AGAINST bowling green.
The actual bowl running dogs last year were:
Stanford W
Va Tech P
Michigan St W
Nebraska L
Ohio St L
Penn St L
Rutgers W
Notre Dame L
Louisville L
Cincinnati W
SMU W
Air Force W
UL-Lafayette W
Nevada W
NIU W
BYU W
10-5-1
Overall the team that won the rushing battle went 21-14 SU & 20-15 ATS