How important is MOTIVATION when betting on college football bowl games?
The college football bowl season is nearly upon us and since one of the goals of The Saturday Edge is to educate its audience, I have asked each of our cappers to write something about their thoughts on the subject of betting on college football bowl games.
I thought I’d start it off by reviewing some of the notes I have accumulated over the years and sharing a few of the more pertinent bowl handicapping tips that I like to use and/or not use when analyzing a bowl game.
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17 thoughts on “How important is MOTIVATION when betting on college football bowl games?”
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Pez, I agree 100%. I take many factors(rushing yards-passing yard percentages,power ratings-such as better team getting points. There are 3 teams, Ball St.,Rutgers, and Northwestern that fit the bill for me this year. Bowl experiance can be a factor,line moves and other stats, yards per point,yards per rush also is important.
The only way motivation plays a role in a bowl game if a team is an underdog and feel it has something to prove.
Tony, Northwestern (+2.5) was one of the first game I jumped on this bowl season. I also have Rutgers on my list but haven’t looked at Ball State in detail yet.
BOL this bowl season and thanks for the capping information.
Think this is pretty spot on Pez. I talk about it alot in my write-ups, but it’s 18-22 year old kids. There isn’t one kid out there that age, that walks onto the field and doesn’t want to win.
What does is influenced by motivation though, is what leads up to a game. If a team clearly doesn’t want to be there, they won’t focus for the month leading up to the game. They go out and drink on Thurs, Fri, Sat with their friends because they finally can. They don’t pay as much attention to the film. They treat the bowl game as a vacation, when sometimes they could be at home over the Holiday with their families. Granted, these situations are very hard to pinpoint, so I don’t try and do it too much.
There are certain situations, especially with Twitter now, where you can get an inside look at what the team is thinking. There is so much noise during bowl season, and so many games, that the lines become more penetrated, adding parity, somewhat like the NFL, so it makes it tougher. Motivation is just one step of the process, and you cannot change a play based on something that maybe impacts a game 5-10%.
Sabert, I definitely agree that game preparation is huge in these bowl games. Some teams will prepare better than others, but figuring out which team that may be is the difficult part.
One I was thinking about was USC v Georgia Tech. You gotta think that USC has ZERO desire to be in the freaking Sun Bowl (everything I have read so far is saying they are pretty disappointed) and they sure as hell don’t want to be getting chop blocked for 60 minutes.
But, on the other hand maybe the Trojans want to send Barkley and the remaining seniors out in style. How does a weak D like Georgia Tech stop Barkley, Lee, Woods, et al if they are clicking?
Twitter and more up to the minute news can be useful, but as I point out in the article, even negative (or positive) comments by coaches, players and fans are no guarantee that you’ll get the team psychology/motivation angle right.
Pez and I have gone around in circles on this subject for the past few years. I agree that motivation is not a perfect science, and in some cases almost impossible to detect. But after the season is over and I look over my numbers, I see a good one third of the bowls that just didn’t make any sense at all when you go by the stats and SOS of the winning ATS teams. To me, the only answer for it had to be motivation or lack of it from the other team.
Another thing that I’ve rarely seen addressed when it comes to motivation is the lack of motivation for “both” teams. Pez mentioned GT/USC. I’m not sure after the season USC experienced, they are going to be very motivated to play in a cold weather bowl. But I’m also not sure a 6-7 GT team who hasn’t had a memorable season themselves or had any significant wins, are going to be any more motivated than the Trojans..
Pez likes to play totals. Totals could be the way to go with some of these bowls where motivation comes into play. I think lack of motivation magnifies the weakness of a team. If a team isn’t very good on offense in the first place, they will probably be even worse in the bowls. So the under could be a possible play. If the team didn’t have a good defense during the regular season, it also could be magnified in the bowls. That’s when I look for a possible over play.
Here are a few notes that I’ve taken over the years when it comes to trying to find motivation in the bowls. Again, this isn’t bullet proof by any means. And I agree with Pez to a point about it not being a perfect science. But it’s something you need to take into consideration in relation to the spread:
First with playing totals, if BOTH teams have great offenses, and both are motivated (Texas A&M/OU?) I look for an absolute shootout of a game. On the other side of the coin, if a team has a great defense and is motivated, I look for a conservative field position type of game, and the under is a strong possibility.
As far as detecting the signs of motivation, I look for teams that were upset in their last regular season game. The bounceback factor is usually pretty strong with these kinds of teams. Sometimes these teams may be dealing with injuries, or they are going up against an extra tough opponent. Or an opponent who is equally motivated. If a team didn’t play well at the end of the regular season, tend not to play well in their bowl games. I saw a trend a few years ago that showed what a terrible bowl record teams have if they lost their last 3 games of the season.If they are made the favorites in their bowl game, are an even bigger play against.
I also look for teams that have something to proove. Whether they are good enough is another factor. But you can bet they’ll be ready to give their A game. On the other end, teams who ended their season winning a big rivalry game, could very well disappoint in their bowl game. I’ve seen this happen many times over the years. Their momentum simply doesn’t carry over to the bowl game, although more often than not the public thinks they will. This is where we can get some line value. Especially if it is a non-bcs bowl game.
I also look for a team who has a high number of seniors. This isn’t a super strong motivational angle, but nevertheless the last game of their college careers has a way of bringing out the best in senior players. Especially the senior players who won’t be playing at the next level. Plus you’ve got the experience factor on your side. So take a quick glance up and down the roster when your capping a bowl game.
The most talked about factor of all in these forums seems to be the underdog factor. In “most” cases there’s nothing like being an underdog to bring out the motivation in a team. But what can get a team extra motivated is when they are the dogs, but don’t feel they should be, and are getting disrespected by the oddsmakers and public. If that team is well coached, it just makes them that much stronger of a play. Of course you’ve still got to look at the other side. Is the other team as motivated or as well coached?
These are most of the basic things I look for. Personally i think motivation is the biggest factor in bowl games. But I agree that it’s not always a perfect science. You have to use the basic rules of capping along with your intuition. Just keep in mind that the ONLY factor the oddsmakers can’t account for is motivation.
GS, great, great info. I really like your bowl totals theory and I was going to make a similar point concerning that USC/GT game. That one looks like it could be a good game to consider the over in. I can’t imagine USC’s mediocre defense has any desire to go up against the GT triple-option for 60 minutes and I can’t see GT being able to stop Barkley and his NFL receivers. Shoot out?
One thing I want to reiterate to everyone is that I definitely believe in the motivation concept. The big debate that GS and I have every year is more about who is or isn’t more likely to be motivated. Sometimes we agree and we are right, sometimes we agree and we are wrong, etc.
As GS says, it is not a perfect science. In fact as I suggest, it is very, very difficult to pinpoint. Just make sure you follow your basic capping rules/procedures and don’t overemphasize the motivation factor.
Pez, I agree about the GT/USC over. If a Big 12 team was in it, USC might have a bit more motivation. But with GT and their weak ass defense, I think USC will just play loose and fling the ball all over the field on them. On the other side, the USC defensive players will just be thinking about not getting chopped blocked and injured. Especially the ones who are looking to play at the next level. If the weather is decent, the over is a real possibility.
I don’t even consider it…it’s a circular conversation…i can make reasons for everyone team to be motivated or unmotivated outside of the title game…you will probably go 50/50, thus ending up paying the vig
This was the best:
2010 capital one bowl
Mich st comes in 11-1 and won their last 3…they had lost their last 3 bowl games…the seniors who had never won a bowl were sure to finally get a victory on a team that played great all year
Alabama were defending nat’l champs and had been to 2 straight bcs bowls…they finished a disappointing 9-3 and even worse had just squandered a 24-0 lead to arch rival auburn in their last game to lose 28-27, watching as auburn moved on to seccg and then nat’l title game…how could the tide possibly get up for this game..?? and even more, how in the world could they cover a 10pt spread vs a solid 11-1 mich st team..??
49 unanswered points later and all the “unmotivated/motivated” handicappers were wondering how they could fall for such a silly angle…
UNLESS YOU KNOW SOMEONE IN THAT LOCKER ROOM…
you’re just guessing
good luck
What’s hysterical is seeing how every media member and everyone on the handicapping websites will somehow determine that every winning team was “more motivated” than the loser…that usc/gtech game is gonna be ridiculous…
if usc wins, everyone will say “how Motivated” the trojans were after a 2 year bowl ban to finally win a bowl game in the lane kiffin era…nothing, of course, about the talent discrepancy between the two teams
if gtech wins, it will be all about how usc, the pre-season #1 team in the ncaa, was “so unmotivated” to play in a meaningless bowl game, and instead had their minds on their draft stock and their post-season workouts…nothing, of course, about their defense being swiss cheese all year and having to face an offense that they rarely, if ever, see
and that feeds the machine, and then every one next season will try to explain how important it is to try and cap “motivation” during bowl season…
a vicious cycle
a circular conversation
it will get you nowhere
the most important advice is this:
“just because it’s the end of the season
doesn’t mean you have to bet every game”
good luck
One factor I didn’t mention in my previous post was strength of schedule. Very important but still have to figure in other factors as well. There have been many games where the team that has played a much weaker schedule does get up for the game but one thing I always look for is a team that has played much stiffer competition.
Trent….I think we’ll just have to agree to disagree on this subject. I don’t think there is any sport on any level where motivation comes into play more than college football. I think the biggest motivational game last season was the BCS title game in which a Bama team of otherwise equal talent to LSU lost by 3 on their homefield to LSU and came back and shut them out in the title game. I could see that one coming a mile away. I think in a case with two teams of more or less equal talent, it’s much easier to get motivated for and avenge a loss than it is a win. This is the pure definition of motivation in my book.
any way you guys can post your ATS spread picks by thursday night?
Mark, everyone’s bowl thread should be up by Thursday, but I don’t know how many games each will have yet. The initial threads will probably contain all early selections, but I would imagine the majority of the picks will be made the closer we get to each game.