GoSooners 2012 Bowl Picks
Regular Season Record: 54-52-1
Although this wasn’t the best of seasons for me, I’ve got to say I’ve really enjoyed this year, and the new website. I think with a few tweaks here or there, we have a chance to become the premier college football betting site on the net. We’ve got some great people here that to me are nothing but class. And just as important, very knowledgeable cappers. I’m really looking forward to see where this ride takes us.
10 thoughts on “GoSooners 2012 Bowl Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
On stats alone Bowling Green has a better defense, but when looking at strength of schedule I think San Jose has the better defense. I do rate Bowling Green to do better running the ball this game, but I still project both teams to gain less than 4 ypc, so BGSU can’t exactly run their way to a victory or even necessarily a cover. SJSU has one of the best passing games in the country, and they’ve done it against a just slightly weaker than average schedule of pass defenses. BGSU has a bottom 20 pass attack against a similar strength of schedule of pass defenses. BGSU has faced an extremely weak schedule of passing teams, 5th easiest out of all 125 schools, but my rescored stats. I think big picture BGSU will struggle for points, while SJSU has the potential to still have a good game passing the ball, as BGSU hasn’t been tested in months, and haven’t faced a passing attack like SJSU’s all season. I have SJSU winning by 10, so I personally am probably going to pass on the game. But when you site SJSU shutting out a team as a reason to bet against them, well, that might be a little suspect, lol. GL brother.
Paul, I agree with you on some of your points. Although I never said BG was going to shut out SJST. I said they could struggle. Which I think is very possible with the cross country trip and possible cold or bad weather. Another place we disagree is the defenses of both teams. I’ve seen both teams play several times this year, and BG has the better defense. Although SJST does play decent D against the run. But BG has been money for me all year because of their shutdown defense. Not because I think they have a great offense, which they don’t. We can both agree on this.. But BG IS the better running team.
I also agree that SJST has had the tougher SOS. But keep in mind that we’re talking about two schedules that rank in the range of 80-120. When you get that low, any way you look at it your schedule is weak. So neither team has anything to brag about with their schedules. Fortunately SJST hasn’t had to deal with a tough road schedule this year. In their only two tough road games, they split with Stanford & SDST. Just managing to get by SDST. This is the problem I have with SJST giving too many points on the road. They remind me quite a bit of Leach’s Texas Tech teams. They can’t run the ball very well, just good enough to take the pressure off of QB Fales. But they have a very good efficent passing game
Here’s the problem I have with giving too many points on the road to a good defense. Unlike the bad teams that SJST has played on the road like NMST, Idaho and UTSA, it is very hard to pull away from a good defensive team like Bowling Green if you don’t have a good running game. This was always Texas Tech’s problem. It was especially a problem for them when they were favored in bowl games by more than a touchdown. They almost never covered as big favorites because of their lack of running game. I guess everybody has different philosophies when it comes to capping bowls. I’ll admit I was very impressed with SJST’s offense this year. Coach Macintyre has really done a great job of building an offense with the Spartans. But for me, when it comes to an unstoppable force vs an immovable object, I usually tend to side with the defense. But that’s just me.
Thanks for responding, GoS, always glad to get a different angle on a game. One clarification, I wasn’t saying that BGSU would shut out SJST, I was mentioning that SJST shut out Navy in the game you were citing as a poor East coast game for SJST. SJST outgained Navy 388 to 144 yards in that game, I reckon SJST took a donut in the red zone and only kicked field goals with the 12-0 final score. To hold Navy to 70 rush yards though, that’s pretty solid.
In terms of offenses faced, I have SJST playing an above average strength of schedule, not the 80th or worse that you site. (I have them around 57th toughest schedule of offenses faced). I also have them facing a slightly better than average schedule of defenses.
While SJST has been a poor running team, they showed some signs of life down the stretch, having their best 2 run games of the season in their final 3 games. At the same time, their defense only allowed a team to go over 100 yards rushing once in the final 4 games, and they limited a very good Louisiana Tech run offense to 58 rush yards and a 2.6 ypc average.
Meanwhile, BGSU finished the season with 2 bad games of run offense against Kent and Buffalo. In BGSU’s favor, though, is that their passing game played well in those final 2 games, their best back to back games in the season by far. Also in BGSU’s favor is that their pass defense was very, very good once they got past the first 3 games of the season, where they actually played really poorly against the pass.
Revisiting the info., it looks to me like the game and cover will come down the passing offense of BGSU. I don’t see a reason to think that their run game will be enough, but their uptick in pass offense down the stretch may allow them to stay close, especially if their pass defense continues their excellent play.
So yeah, I think their are good arguments for both sides, which means getting more than 7 good prove to be very good value. I’m more keen to watch this game now, that’s for sure, lol. Right now I have some action on the Under 48.5, so I’ll be rooting for offensive frustration, as will you be, lol.
Paul, you got a great number on the under. I did not jump on it in time and it dropped below 48, which is a very strong number.
Yeah, if you’ve ever tracked me online you know I beat the “opening” opening #s to a pulp. I’m up over 300 points on line moves in college football this year. I plunked a little down on the BYU/SDSU Under 48.5 just now, because as you said, 48 is the most key # in the 40s.
Under 48.5 is definitely a great number for this game. The opening 47 total also tells you how the linesmakers feel about this game. It’s also the lowest total of the season for a SJST game. A lot of respect for both defenses here. Especially BG. Which there should be considering the circumstances of being a bowl game and BG having a full month to prepare for the SJST offense. And SJST being a little out of their element playing cross country. I wonder if this line or total will go back up if the two MAC teams in bowls before before BG get beat or make a bad showing?
Bowling Green/SJST total down to 45..How low will it go? I’m still mulling over the BYU/SDST game. The total is still hovering at 48. But I have seen a 47.5 creep up. So if I decide to play the under, I’ll do it very soon while it’s at 48. I’m still looking to take a side. There’s some intangibles here that make me like SDST. The home bowl game. Possibly a little more motivation on SDST’s part with BYU having their number for the last few years. Maybe extra incentive since BYU left the MWC. Plus the Aztecs going for their first 10 win season in 35 years..The teams have had three common opponents with similar results, except for SDST winning a close game at Boise (Dingwell’s first start) and BYU losing a close one to Boise. So if you go by common opponents there isn’t much difference between the two teams. I’ve also heard that BYU is trying some new schemes out on offense. Whether this backfires or not with a new QB is anybody’s guess. But at this point I’ll have to say the two best things SDST has going for them is the more experieced QB and the homefield. The negative here is that BYU is a very experienced team. Which is a big plus, and part of the reason BYU has won 4 out of their last 5 bowl games. The only negative with the under is this game is this bowl series has OVER written all over it. So it’s a tough call either way.
GoSooners, I wanted to thank you for all the hard work you put in on TSE. I love this site and all the great info. I already can’t wait for next season and hope TSE continues in the future.
Thanks again
Lonnie
Lonnie, thanks for the kind words. I’ve really learned a lot myself this first season. I’m really looking forward to next year. I think we are just getting started, and this place is only going to get bigger and better each year.