Jimmyshivers Week 13 ACC Football Picks
54-54 -5.41 units
After a slow start to the week that saw me lose both my weekday plays, I was able to bounce back with an 8-5 Saturday that saw the week turn a slight profit. It was a frustrating week though as 2 of my 4-unit plays came up way short (Virginia +6, USF +7) in just really poor efforts by teams that acted like they had nothing to play for.
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5 thoughts on “Jimmyshivers Week 13 ACC Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Hey Jimmy, thecruncher here. I’m seeing you’re liking Duke across the board here, where I’ve made Miami a play this week. I can tell you why action has come in on Miami early in the week: if you look at season stats as a whole than these two teams do come out very even, I even agree that Miami has a slightly worse defense. But if you look at recent results Duke has really struggled both offensively and defensively while Miami has shown improvement. Now a little bit of that has to do with Renfree’s injury, and Miami facing a Daniels-less USF last week, but I can tell you, when looking at the direction that teams are heading currently there is no bigger disparity in any other game on the board than this one. Others in this category are the Ohio/Kent game, the Wash/WashSt. game, the MD/UNC game, and the VAN/WAKE game. I’m pretty sure that in each of those games you can quickly tell me which is the team circling the drain and which is the team playing good ball. So you might be surprised to know that the Duke/Miami game has an even bigger disparity in combined team directions than any of those previously mentioned games. So I guess it will come down to how Miami handles the loss of the Bowl game. It is troubling to learn that they sucked in a similar situation last year, I didn’t remember that. However, considering how the team has been playing of late, now that I’ve made my play I guess I’ll stick with it and hope that they put in a good effort here.
Paul,
Thank you for coming by and dropping a line, you make some really great points concerning Duke’s regression over the last month and Miami’s concurrent improvements.
It’s not a big surprise to see Miami getting better, their such a young team that they have a lot of improvement showing just by gaining more experience every week. I like Al Golden, he’s finally instilling a bit of the worker bee mentality to this Miami program that I felt it had severely lacked over the last decade.
That being said, I can tell you that everyone around this program is royally pissed off at how the university has handled the situation. There have even been some rumors this week about impending player transfers and discontent among the coaching staff. Maybe they are just rumors, but I just don’t feel that Miami is in a really good spot this weekend to go play well in Durham against a team with a solid passing attack that can grind out possessions and keep that talented Miami offense off the field. This is a large senior class for Duke, and they’ve gone through a ton here in Durham and have finally reached their goal of postseason play, I just feel theirs a big emotional edge for Duke this week, even if their defensive numbers have gotten really porous. It’s important to consider the decline in their defensive numbers has directly coincided with them playing 4 of the most prolific offenses in the league (GT, Clemson, FSU and UNC) the last 4 times out.
I could easily be wrong,as Miami has definitely been a bogey side for me all season long. But Miami isn’t head and shoulders better than Duke in my opinion to overcome what I feel is a massive emotional and situational disadvantage.
The TTU/Baylor game is at Cowboy Stadium? Zoinks, I did not know that, lol. As you know, I got Baylor at -2.5 (which is good considering the line move as of today) — but both teams play much better at home, so there goes a decent chunk of the line value I was showing for this game. Still playable, IMO, but just barely, and I certainly wouldn’t want to be on the wrong side of 3 now. I project Baylor to be somewhat better in both the run and pass matchups in this game, so I am curious at how your ‘sheet arrived at TTU being a 12 point favorite (and so continues our recent dance of “how do you arrive at your lines?” lol).