Why Notre Dame is #1 to the Public, but not to Sharps
After yesterday’s debacle, Notre Dame will be the unanimously number 1 team in the nation. Is it deserved? Absolutely. That doesn’t change the fact that Notre Dame wouldn’t be favored over the Top 8 teams in the country.
This leads us to a question, which we all have been asking for years. Should the current system favor the team that makes the least missteps, or favor the BEST teams in the country? To many, this is one in the same. To Vegas bookmakers, the only true efficient sports market we have, these are vastly different.
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11 thoughts on “Why Notre Dame is #1 to the Public, but not to Sharps”
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I’ll take ND as a dog to any of these teams. The out of conference schedule for all the SEC is a joke and helps their overall statistics substantially. Florida, Bama and LSU who played who exactly this weekend? In week TEN no less! What’s the matter, ITT Tech not available? Notre Dame has yet to play a team the past ten years that I need to Google to even find out where their school is or even how long they’ve had a football program. Yes, Wake is dreadful this year, however they at least have a program with history and some recruits! Should ND be favoured in the NCG, no I think on a neutral field they probably would not be. However they shut down Oklahoma on the road, their front seven makes teams one dimensional and Bama has trouble with anyone outside the SEC. If ND wins this weekend, which I am not certain they will due to Barkley being out (back up is in my opinion a much stronger QB) I will gladly take the points in the NCG.
Interesting article on the SEC’s dominance: https://www.thepostgame.com/commentary/201208/better-without-em-northern-manifesto-southern-secession-chuck-thompson-sec-bcs
I don’t know if it’s totally fair to blanket the SEC together in this one. LSU has played the hardest schedule in the nation regardless of who you talk too. If ND plays that schedule, they probably have 2 losses, making them most likely ineligible for the national championship. Yes, they played some terrible games, but there are 6 games on there and I’d bet ND would easily lose two of them.
Shutting down Oklahoma this year, as I’m sure GoSooners will agree, is nothing special.
I think this weekend will be interesting for ND. If Kiffin is smart (which he isn’t, I have him has one of the 20 worst coaches in NCAA), He’d use Marquis Lee the exact same way WVU used Austin against Oklahoma this weekend. They’d use him as RB, WR, and even QB at times getting him 20+ touches in the game. USC’s backup QB was no slouch in HS, but this is a big game. We’ll see.
Good article Sabert. I do agree w/ Navycross though, I think I’d take the Irish as a dog against any of these teams. Bama was exposed the first time they had to play a good team (LSU). They are a good, solid team, but nothing special.
Heck ND and Alabama are almost mirror images of each other. Good D’s, average offenses led by game manager type QBs (McCarron has more experience).
One question/comment I do have for you. You say:
The teams they snuck by: Purdue, Stanford, BYU, and Pitt. I have those teams ranked 12th, 16th, 49th and 56th.
Are you ranking Purdue 12th and Stanford 16th? Stanford would take Purdue out behind the woodshed. I doubt the game would even be close. As the Cardinal showed this past Saturday, they are a BCS quality team, especially now w/ Hogan at QB.
I would probably take ND as a dog against Bama although I think that game plays out very similarly to the NCG last year. Both teams had GOOD defense last year, and one team had a more balanced offense, and the other team really relied on the run. I think McCarron would just be able to do enough to get Bama the win, and ND would be close to covering.
I actually would be more hesitant to take ND as a dog against UGA than I would any of the others. The line would be lower first of all, and I think UGA could give ND the biggest struggle. I am not scared of ND offense. A good SEC defense, which all of these teams have would be one of, if not the best defense ND has seen. On top of that, I think Murray, Gurley, Marshall and UGAs offense is the most prolific that ND could face. Murray is an accurate QB that has tons of experience.
And no, I am absolutely not ranking Purdue up there. I have Stanford at 12, BYU at 16, Pitt at 49th and Pudue at 56th. Sorry for the confusion.
Just the way Notre Dame is built, they have value as an underdog. They have a strong defense, and pretty conservative/methodical offense. They are built to play close games. That is why it is hard to take the Irish as substantial favorites, unless they have a significant line of scrimmage advantage (like against Wake and Miami).
I’m with Pezgordo on this one. Notre Dame is simply not the best matchup for Bama. ND’s lines are as good as any SEC team. And this is where teams like Bama and LSU have had the biggest advantage over their opponents the last few years. If ND can hold off Bama’s rushing game by playing just 4 or 5 up front and keeping 6-7 back like they did against OU, I think Bama is in trouble on offense. Plus every BCS title team has always had that one standout defensive name player that has been the difference maker. With ND they have Manti Te’O, who has been a primetime difference maker in games against Michigan State and OU. It will be interesting if ND makes it that far. But if you give Brian Kelly 5 weeks to prepare for one game, I think he can be every bit as good as Saban…By the way, I wouldn’t assume Bama is just going to roll over Georgia. I think the Dawgs are playing better football right now. That could be a very good game.
Agreed with alot of this. Bama is a better matchup for ND than UGA is I think. I also think UGA will give Bama tons of trouble, and possibly win. Their defense has the talent to be the best in the nation, they just haven’t totally played like it. I’m rooting for UGA obviously because I’m sitting on a future on them!
I think the biggest difference, which OpeningLine alluded too, and why I still think Bama matches up well and probably wins, is the trenches. ND will not have seen a team with the OL and DL like Bama. Bama’s OL is legitimately an NFL OL and they ND front 7 will not have as easy of a time against Bama as they have all season. On the contrary, Bama’s D is rated the best in the country. I think the trenches are hard to ignore in this one, and ND will finally be matched, if not overmatched here.
The only area I would be concerned about with GA is they play down to the level of their competition. They were extremely lucky in some games this year when they came out flat and it took a very long time to get rolling (which never happened at SC and they got blown out). Its an awful matchup for ND if they have to play GA, simply because of the ability for GA to get the deep ball when they need it. ND would be efficient in stopping the run, but all it would take is one or two big plays and ND would have to be a less conservative on offence and with a freshman QB in the biggest game ND has played in 17 years, god only knows what could happen.
I think the wild card here is Golson in these games. His ability to get outside the pocket and his having a very live arm could be trouble for most of these teams. He makes the occasional rookie mistake, however in big games this year he has been very focused and stuck to Kelly’s game plan. Kelly is a great coach, he does not put his players in the position to fail and I can’t see him taking too many risks, especially with ND’s running game being solid.
If Golson has a good game against USC his confidence and belief in himself will be that much stronger heading into the NCG. With five weeks to prepare, I expect this to be a tight game and not a blowout as most SEC fans believe. Either way, its better then another all SEC NCG that is for sure!!
As usual, love the write up. Only one I don’t completely agree with is Florida. There offense is so bad I can’t help but think that would be a PK or ND favored. Some seasons it’s just good to be lucky. GO IRISH. Thanks again to all of you on this site. Great picks and insight all season.
For fun I matched up Notre Dame against these teams in my spreadsheet to see what my lines for the games would be, neutral field:
Notre Dame/Alabama: Alabama -4.5
Notre Dame/Georgia: Notre Dame -4.5
Notre Dame/Florida: Notre Dame -4.5
Notre Dame/Florida State: Florida State -3.1
Notre Dame/Oregon: Notre Dame -11.1
Notre Dame/Kansas State: Notre Dame -9.4
Notre Dame/Texas A&M: Pick ’em.
Notre Dame/LSU: -8.1
That’s Notre Dame favored -8.1 against LSU.