“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 56% on a 400+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 24-12 (66.66%) ATS so Far!** 

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 13-6-1 (68.42%) ATS so Far!**

Buffalo @ Houston -10:  The line in this game probably looks high, but don’t be fooled; the Bills have been historically bad on offense.  Despite their 2 wins, their passer rating differential is comparable with probably the worst team in NFL history in the 2017 Cleveland Browns.  The public will likely use their 2 wins to justify them as a mediocre team even though their offense and quarterback play resembles a high school team.  Here’s what Josh Allen has produced so far and look how it compared overall to what the Browns did in 2017:

Do your eyes hurt after reading all those 32’s?  They should…..

It’s hard to imagine that they could continue playing this poorly, but another thing that Buffalo doesn’t have going this year is its typically reliable running game.  I think defenses have rightfully stacked the box to stuff the running game because they have no faith in Allen’s ability to beat them through the air.  The Bills are averaging just 3.5 yards / carry which ranks them at 28^th overall and nowhere near where they would like to be.

For the Texans, I was encouraged to see Clowney & Watt play together healthily for what seems like forever.  They harassed Prescott all night in their OT victory against the Cowboys.  The Texans have underachieved so far, but their key players on both sides of the ball appear to have shaken their rust.  Watson took some huge hits last week, but his balls looked like they had some zip and the offense was moving the ball all night.  They struggled in the red zone because of Bill O’Brien’s pathetic decision making.  I’m hopeful that they can clean that up this week and put up 30+ points against a mediocre defense inside the dome.  Expect them to have favorable field position from some forced turnovers by the Texans D.

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• Since week 9 of 2017, the Money Zone is 60-33 (64.51%). No additional comments there….
• I’m proud that For 2018, my Picks of the Week have outperformed the Money Zone on a percentage basis.
• The Browns have been a tough team to beat at home, as I found out the hard way. With that defense creating turnovers, and the rejuvenation of the offense under Mayfield, I think Wildcard might be reasonable.
• I was hoping the Panthers were listed as the favorite this week. I think Washington wins, and that is probably the biggest public trap bet of the week.
• Baltimore is probably a smart play too in the Money Zone. Expect a bounce back game from Flacco.
• Minnesota seems to have gotten back on track. They should steamroll Arizona.
• Denver as a TD+ home dog, seems like a can’t miss play, but the Rams in the Money Zone is a definite No-no to go against.
• Is anyone else embarrassed at how over the top the Drew Brees’ yardage celebration was? I was watching in disbelief. I couldn’t think of a more useless record, and it will be broken again in under 5 years.

Good Luck!