A rough week and some close losses last Saturday leaves me at 8-13 after six weeks of play.

Every Big Ten team is in action this week and I definitely need a solid week. Here’s the slate we’re choosing from:

Purdue (-10) at Illinois – total of 59, Rutgers at Maryland (-23) – total of 54.5, Iowa (-6) at Indiana – total of 51.5, Minnesota at Ohio State (-29) – total of 59.5, Nebraska at Northwestern (-7.5) – total of 58.5, Michigan State at Penn State (-13.5) – total of 56.5, Wisconsin at Michigan (-6.5) – total of 50

Purdue at Illinois – OVER 59 – 3:30 on BTN

The Boilermakers offense has taken off over the past three games. They put up 37 on a good Missouri team, 30 in a dominant win over Boston College and then 42 in a comfortable victory at Nebraska. David Blough is playing at a very high level and after a dismal effort against Eastern Michigan, the Purdue offense is up to 23^rd in the S&P+ rankings. Their defense is still struggling though and flounders at 81^st. They are playing at Illinois, a team that has actually been better on offense than I thought they would be. The Fighting Illini scored 24 against Penn State and moved the ball decently and then put up 38 on Rutgers last week. M.J. Rivers is improving and the duo of Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein are both well over 6.5 yards per carry. The defense is another story. They have been abysmal and I fully expect the Boilermakers to reach the 40s. That means Illinois only has to get the high teens. Playing against a bad defense at home, I’m betting on it. Take the OVER.

Minnesota at Ohio State – OVER 59.5 – Noon on BTN

The Ohio State Buckeyes have the nation’s third best offense and they have scored at least 40 points in every game except for their clash at Penn State (27 points). Dwayne Haskins is a terrific quarterback and the coaching staff are letting him air it out. His receivers are benefitting from the deep shots as players Terry McLaurin and Parris Campbell are having career years. I see no reason that won’t continue against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, a team that surrendered nearly 50 to Iowa a week ago. That came a week after they gave up 42 to Maryland. The Gophers are without top defensive player Antoine Winfield Jr. and it is definitely showing. If Ohio State wants to, I think they easily get into the upper 40s and possibly reach 50. That means Minnesota only needs to reach double-digits to have a comfortable over. I imagine the Buckeyes will be focused on improving their defense after a shaky performance against Indiana last week but I still think Minnesota should be able find the end zone a couple of times in a blowout.

Nebraska at Northwestern (-7.5) – Noon on ABC

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are off to a historically poor start. There is a belief that Scott Frost will have them competing at the top of the Big Ten West in a short period of time and I have no reason to doubt he was the “right hire” for the Huskers but I wrote before the season that Nebraska was a very long way from where they wanted to be and that this season would be a difficult one for them. Now, an 0-5 start surprises me but Nebraska being bad is not a shock. Their defense and special teams are really poor (56 to Michigan, 42 to Purdue, 41 to Wisconsin) and the offense is not much better than average. Meanwhile, Northwestern appears to be doing what they do best. Pat Fitzgerald has the Wildcats perhaps rounding into form after back-to-back impressive performances. They should have beaten Michigan two weeks ago and they thoroughly outplayed Michigan State in East Lansing a week ago. Clayton Thorson looked like himself last Saturday and I think the Wildcats are going to score easily against Nebraska’s shaky defense. I hate having the number at 7.5 but I feel confident Northwestern is the superior team and I like them to win by double-digits.

Michigan State at Penn State (-13.5) – 3:30 on BTN

Through last week, I continued to believe the Michigan State Spartans would click. After watching all of last week’s contest against Northwestern, one in which they were badly outplayed, I have given up that thought. Their offensive line is badly beat up and they have been unable to establish any kind of running game. Brian Lewerke, while very talented, is mistake-prone and he makes some truly baffling throws. The defense is strong but Clayton Thorson threw for more than 300 yards against the Spartans and it could have been more if the Wildcats weren’t nursing a lead throughout the fourth quarter. They now travel to Happy Valley to play a rested Penn State Nittany Lions squad that still has their eyes on a New Year’s Six bowl (the Rose Bowl is still very much in play for PSU). Penn State has a dynamic offense and they seem to unveil new options each week. The defense is not dominant but I think their front seven will have its way with the Spartans offensive line and make Lewerke’s life difficult. I like the Nittany Lions to win big.

Wisconsin at Michigan (-6.5) – 7:30 on ABC

This is a scary game because it is difficult for me to trust the Wolverines in a big spot. I think it is time though. They are playing at home and on primetime television. The Big House should be absolutely rocking and hungry for a statement win. Wisconsin has a very strong ground game but the Wolverines have one of the more dominant defenses in the country. I don’t trust Scott Hornibrook to be able to consistently make plays on third down against the Michigan blitz packages and the Badgers definitely miss big-play receiver Quintez Cephus. The major reason for this pick is that I no longer trust Wisconsin’s defense as an elite group. They surrendered 24 to Nebraska and were not impressive in doing so. The Huskers had 26 first downs and 518 yards of offense, throwing for 407. Michigan’s offense is actually coming around and if the coaching staff does not try to button things up too tightly, I am confident the Wolverines come away with a convincing victory.