821 Davidson +2.5 vs Rhode Island

Davidson +120 vs Rhode Island

I think this line is actually insane because the wrong team is favored. While Rhode Island may be ranked 25th in the country, (this is actually very generous), Davidson is the better team. Davidson has two losses in their last 9 games. One away at St. Bonnies in a triple overtime game which could have went either way, and a road loss to Rhode Island who they revenged a few weeks after at home. Talking just ATS the spread numbers alone Davidson has covered its last 3, 5 of 6 and 9 of its last 12 games. This team has been playing far better than the market’s expectation and is proving it in the conference tournament thus far. Rhode Island after cruising through the conference for most of the year, came back to earth in it’s last 5 regular season games dropping three of five and almost a fourth by just squeaking out an overtime win against La Salle. Rhode Island is 2-5 ATS in last 7, so clearly this team is playing below market expectation. Normally, I’d like to target a team like Rhode Island in this spot to play a reverse trend colliding here, but the market has not adjusted one bit. Actually, it’s even more in favor of Rhode Island, since it’s the conference tournament and people love betting favorites. Rhode Island was talked about all year as the best team in the Atlantic 10, but certainly dropped off down the stretch. On the opposite side, Davidson has been so efficient on offense down the stretch, and I like them to continue their hot play en route to the A10 championship.

UT Arlington +2 vs Georgia State

UT Arlington +108 vs Georgia State

Here we have a similar scenario to the above, just not as drastic. This line should be a pickem, but we are getting 2 freebies, and a generous money line bet. Georgia State finished the regular season losing 4 of 6 games despite being favored in three of those losses. They had a comfortable run to this point in the torunament, but I think are running into the wrong team here. UT Arlington is the most experienced team in the country as per KenPom, and in a conference final, isn’t this what you’re looking for? UT just beat the class of this conference yesterday wiping out Lafayette, and now draws a much easier opponent in Georgia State. UT is winners of 5 straight and 4-1 ATS during this time. Again, typically I like to fade these trends, but the market has not adjusted to their better play. In fact, we have another situation where it’s gone in reverse. UT’s defense has looked much improved thus far in the conference tournament and couple this with their fast play and efficient scoring, I like them to come out as the Sun Belt Champs against Georgia State in this one.