Conference tournaments have delivered buzzer beaters, drama, excitement and some major bubble solidifying (in the case of Providence and Alabama).  It has also made a muddled mess of the fourth number one seed.  Xavier was the presumptive occupant, but a loss in the semis to Providence should  hurt them, right?  But who can pass them?  Purdue and Michigan State were both beaten soundly in the Big Ten tournament. Duke, the most likely candidate to surge, lost in the semis to Carolina.  Carolina seems too far back even if they were to beat Virginia tonight. Ditto for a Texas Tech upset over Kansas (who is now solidly locked in as the #3 overall seed), and there’s NO WAY the committee will show any love for Arizona even if they win the Pac-12 Championship by 100 points.

The only other candidate would be Cincinnati if they can handle their business in the AAC, but I just don’t think the computers respect the league enough for them to climb any higher than their current projected #2.

So, by default, Xavier likely stays.

After the one-line, there is still a ton of movement that can occur today.  Kentucky and Arizona are aiming to climb back closer to their preseason expectations, while Alabama and Providence can go from “bubble” to wearing home jerseys on Thursday/Friday (and certainly avoiding Tuesday/Wednesday).

Storylines aside, there’s some nice wagering opportunities on the board today as well, so let’s dive in.

 

TODAY’S FREE PICKS – CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP EDITION

ACC Championship – North Carolina vs. Virginia -4.5

Virginia has now won 19 ACC games this season. NINE TEEN. No one else has notched more than 14. The Cavaliers aren’t household names, and frankly, are often cited as Exhibit A when someone wants to label the college game as unexciting. Occasionally, their games can be a difficult watch.  The stifle and strangle good teams into 50-point outings.

But here’s the truth.  They are the undisputed #1 team in the country.  They get and take good shots and rarely allow opponents to do the same. And they are an absolute nightmare to face less than 21 hours after holding on for dear life against your most intense rival – which is exactly the challenge the Tarheels are facing tonight.

This year’s Carolina squad isn’t as offensively creative and talented in the half court as last year’s Champs. And Virginia isn’t going to let them run.  The Cavs held them to 49 points in the first meeting.  UNC might score a few more on tonight’s neutral court, but not enough to win.

I think Virginia will be fresher tonight and, frankly, is a significantly better team to begin with.  I’ll swallow the points.

MY PICK:  VIRGINIA CAVALIERS -4.5

 

Big Twelve Championship – West Virginia vs. Kansas -1

I love this line. I was expecting KU minus three or even three and a half. To get the eternal Big XII Champs, Kansas, as a near pick ‘em feels like a nice value wager. The Jayhawks have won seven of their last eight games, including a 77-69 win over West Virginia.  The Mountaineers also lost 71-66 in their home crack at Kansas.

West Virginia closed the regular season by going just 7-8 over their final 15 games and their offensive performance has ranged from ‘unimpressive’ to ‘abysmal’

This one feels like a no-brainer. I’ll rock and chalk with the Jayhawks.

MY PICK:  KANSAS JAYHAWKS -1

 

Big East Championship – Providence vs. Villanova -12.5

Every major conference game has a reasonably competitive line today. Except this one. Villanova is an overwhelming favorite for a reason. They own the Big East and have since its reconfigured inception. Xavier became the first team to unseat them in the regular season, due largely to Villanova’s odd loss of focus in some conference losses to lesser opponents like St John’s and… yup, Providence.  The Friars got them 76-71 in Providence, which doesn’t guarantee a similar result today, but does at least make that dozen-plus laydown feel pretty steep.

Villanova has been impressive lately.  They’ve won their last three games by an average of nearly 22 points per game. But playing a good team on a neutral floor makes laying 12.5 pretty ridiculous.  I’ll take the Friars and the points.  Villanova will cut down the nets, but I think it will at least be a competitive game.

MY PICK:  PROVIDENCE FRIARS +12.5