Heisman Trophy Prediction

Now that we are into November and already Week 11 of the 2017 college football season, we should have a pretty clear picture of who will win the Heisman Trophy – or at least whose it is to lose and which players will earn a trip to New York as a finalist. Here’s a look at the only four realistic candidates along with their Mybookie.ag odds. The Heisman will be given out on Saturday, Dec. 9 with the finalists being announced the Monday before, Dec. 4. ESPN will televise the event per usual.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (-160)

Penn State is one of the most storied programs in college football yet has had only one Heisman winner: running back John Cappelletti in 1973. Whether Barkley joins that club, he’s a lock to be the first running back taken in the 2018 NFL draft and go in the Top 5 – barring major injury before then. Barkley leads the FBS in all-purpose yards per game with a 206.3 average. He has scored at least one touchdown in 15 consecutive games, which is longest active streak in FBS and broke Curtis Enis’ school record of 14-straight games with a score over the 1996 and 1997 seasons. Barkley is 26th in FBS in rushing yards per game (100.1) and tied for fifth in scoring (10.5 ppg). He is one of nine players in FBS with two kickoff return touchdowns, which ties the school record held by three others. Barkley’s 34.4 kickoff return average is fourth in FBS.  Barkley is 141 yards shy of becoming the second Lion to total 5,000 career all-purpose yards and 16 points from 100 for the season, which would make him just the second Nittany Lion (Kevin Kelly) to have two or more 100-point seasons.

JT Barrett, QB, Ohio State (+400)

Ohio State is tied with Notre Dame with seven Heisman winners, although OSU is home to the only player to win it twice:  Archie Griffin. Barrett jumped back into the race with a mammoth game last week in leading a huge rally over Penn State. He helped Ohio State overcome two 18-point deficits against the Nittany Lions, including from 15 points down in the final 5:42. He completed 33 of 39 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns, plus rushed for 95 yards for an Ohio State school record 423 yards of total offense. Barrett completed his final 16 passes to set the school record for consecutive completions, including completing 13 of 13 passes in the fourth quarter alone for 170 yards and three touchdowns. Barrett is completing 69.5 percent of his 246 attempts this season with 25 touchdown passes and just one interception. He already is the Big Ten career leader in TDs responsible for.

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford (+450)

Stanford has just one Heisman winner in QB Jim Plunkett in 1970. The school has had a few runners-up, including two years ago running back Christian McCaffrey, now a rookie with the Carolina Panthers. Love leads the nation in rushing but what is going to hurt him is that he missed last week’s game vs. Oregon State and is a game-time call this week against Washington State with an ankle injury. You can miss one game and win a Heisman, but not two. Love, a junior, is averaging a nation-best 198.1 rush yards per game, and he’s accounted for 11 of the Cardinal’s 33 offensive touchdowns. Love (if he plays) could have a big game against a Washington State defense that last week in a loss to Arizona gave up a season-high 328 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to Wildcats quarterback Khalil Tate and running backs J.J. Taylor and Zach Green.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (+1000)

Mayfield, a senior, was a finalist for the Heisman each of the past two years. He’s going to set every record at a school that has had Heisman-winning QBs this century in Sam Bradford and Jason White. Mayfield has accounted for 27 TDs this season (23 passing) against only three turnovers (9-to-1 ratio). The former walk-on leads all Power 5 QBs in pass completion percentage (72.5), pass efficiency rating (195.6) and yards per pass attempt (11.1). He is 12-0 in true road games as a Sooner, throwing 40 TDs against six interceptions. Mayfield is 10-0 in Big 12 road games, with 34 TD passes and just four INTs (8.5-to-1 ratio). The road stats are important this week as OU visits No. 11 Oklahoma State in a huge game. Mayfield would have no shot at the Heisman with a loss.

Expert Prediction

It would be easy to go chalk here, but Barrett could get an extra game to impress voters: the Big Ten Championship Game. If OSU wins out, it will play in that and Penn State won’t. Thus, Barrett is the best value play right now over Barkley.