Each year I come up with a list of “Quick Hitters” for the Pac-12 conference. Below are my initial thoughts on each team and a season win total recommendation for each division.

 

 

Pac-12 South

USC:

• Obvious national title contender, however no off-weeks the entire year.  This could come into play.
• Haven’t opened at home in 2 years, the last three home openers (’12, ’14, ’15), average margin 42ppg.
• Week 2/3 – Stanford and Texas and Week 7/8/9 – Utah/@Notre Dame/@ASU could be the trouble spots in an otherwise promising campaign.

UCLA:

• Mora on the hot seat, and can’t really trust him other than to recruit.
• New OC and 3rd in 3 years – former OC from Michigan to keep Rosen in pro-style attack.
• Look to fade this team later in the season – @ Memphis and Stanford week 3/4 seems problematic.

Utah:

• New high-flying offense with former Eastern Washington HC Taylor as OC (530+ypg).  Will be looking at overs early on this team.
• Low experience returning this year (9 returning starters) and a tough schedule, they could wear down in the back half.
• Look for defense (which is typically a strength) to wear down with the new “fast-break” offense.

Colorado:

• This team was legit on defense last year and had a bit of a “glass slipper” in 2016.  The clock will strike midnight in 2017 for the Buffs.
• Underrated loss in DC Leavitt who went to Oregon and the loss of three all conference DB’s will be massive.
• Three returning starters on defense and this team will now be on Pac-12 foes’ radar in 2017.

Arizona State:

• Two new coordinators on both sides of the ball in 2017, will take a wait and see approach on the Devils early.
• In 2016, the Devils were injury riddled, will all of that experience be a factor in 2017, or not?
• Middle of the season, Week 4-9 (with a bye in the middle) of Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Utah, and USC will determine this teams’ fate in 2017.

Arizona:

• Rich Rod on the hot seat, as his offense is beginning to show signs of not evolving and being able to get over the hump in the Pac-12.
• RB Wilson and Taylor are back on offense and legit, but can they stay healthy – Also, not a huge fan of QB Dawkins when asked to cover numbers.
• Schedule looks promising for the Cats to rebound, but will wait and see if the defense and Rich Rod can be trusted.

Season Win Play Pac-12 South – Colorado UNDER 7.5 Wins

 

 

Pac-12 North

Washington:

• Almost entire offense is back, including the O-line.  Defense has some losses, but Peterson will reload here.
• These guys might not give up a TD until October and should roll through the schedule as Week 1-7 is as follows: Rutgers, Montana, Fresno St., Colorado, Oregon State, Cal, and ASU.
• Oregon and @ Stanford in Week 10 and 11 is the big test for the Dawgs.  With a total win mark at 10, can they even lose three games?

Stanford:

• Seems like they fed McCaffrey too much last season and will look to be more balanced on offense – QB Chryst seemed to come on at the end of 2016, before being hurt in the Sun Bowl.
• They have a solid LB and DB core and have 8 starters back on defense, this team could be back to an UNDER squad in 2017.
• Schedule is manageable, but can you really trust Shaw laying points all season – where will the slip-up be?

Oregon:

• New HC Taggart is an upgrade over former HC, and new DC Leavitt will bring a toughness to the Ducks that they didn’t have with Helfrich.
• 17 returning starters total and new defense and overall scheme with 9 returning starters on defense – With Leavitt heading the defense, UNDERS could have value for the Ducks.
• As long as the QB play is consistent, this team will bounce back in 2017 and there could be value on the Ducks early in the year.

Washington State:

• QB Falk coming back is huge, this offense will again put up some numbers and the O-Line could be one of the best the Cougs have had under Leach.
• 9 returning starters on defense, even with the potent offense, will their totals be lined “too high” and value on the UNDER – need to see the defense and this situation play out.
• This team will be solid, but not sure if there are any angles to lean on or line value on them heading into 2017.

Oregon State:

• Year three of HC Anderson’s tenure, usually this equals improvement, but do they have a QB?
• With RB Nall and 11 of top 15 tacklers back on defense, can this team hang within numbers – I think they can, but need to see how they do the first few weeks.  Do they have value @ Colorado State and v. Minnesota?
• No real read on the Beavers, could see them being a spread team early and then fading late – 2017 will look to be a year they make a jump in the Pac-12 North.

Cal:

• I kike HC Wilcox and his defensive mindset, but after Goff and Webb at QB the last two years – this seems like a total philosophy and talent rebuild.
• This team could realistically open 1-6, will they mail it in or keep grinding?  Will be a fade team most of the season.
• Good set or WR’s coming back for Cal, will a QB emerge and how much slower will they play?  Do they even have the talent to slow things down to be an UNDER team?

Season Win Play Pac-12 North – Washington OVER 10 Wins