Today’s Favorite Free College Hoops Plays – February 25th
We are coming down the home stretch of the college basketball regular season, so expect roughly half the games on television today to have “bubble implications.” If it FEELS like there are more bubble games this year, you are probably right. Because of the relative weakness outside of the major conferences a few teams in each power league that would normally be NIT-bound are still alive and dreaming. Sixty eight teams have to get into the Field, so there are going to be a lot of Power Conference teams with .500 or worse conference records legitimately in the discussion.
The most obvious bubble games are the 8pm tilt between Northwestern, who is trying to avoid a heart-breaking collapse and Indiana, who is all but dead, but with this soft bubble, you never know, Texas Tech at Oklahoma State in an equally-vital math for both teams, and VCU at Rhode Island as the Rams get one last attempt to show the A-10 deserves a third team in the field.
By no means are these the ONLY big games today. Florida at Kentucky, Baylor at Iowa State, Duke at Miami, and the game of the day, UCLA at Arizona. And of course, Gonzaga can lock up a perfect regular season with a home win tonight over BYU.
It’s going to be another great day of college hoops. Here’s three of my favorite plays on the board today.
Today’s Favorite Plays:
UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats -1
I’ve been on record since the first week of the season touting UCLA as a National Championship contender. Back then, they were a young team a year removed from missing the Tournament and ranked in the high teens. Now, saying UCLA can cut down the nets is a far less bold assertion. But oddly enough, as great as the Bruins have been, it is Arizona that has emerged with the slightly better resume. Both only have three losses entering tonight, but two or Arizona’s loss were back before they had Trier in uniform and in the early emergence of Lauri Markkanen as legit All American candidate and Top Ten Lottery Pick.
Arizona’s most impressive effort of the season came at the Bruins expense in Pauley Pavilion earlier this season, so this game has some revenge factor to it, but it is still hard to pick against the Wildcats in a home game when you only have to lay a point or two.
This pick is not a “fade” of UCLA. It is an endorsement of Arizona as perhaps the best team in the country no one is quite on board with yet. They have good guard play, an NBA big man, and NBA wing and a ton of athleticism and depth. They are 15-1 in Pac-12 play and have, again, already won AT UCLA.
For those of you who follow me on Twitter (@TheMarchManiacs) you already know some of the negative ATS stats regarding Arizona in conference play at home. They are 1-6-1 ATS at home in conference play after the win and cover this week over USC – their FIRST. Yet MOST of that stat is simply a function of very high spreads being missed by a mere point or two. Six of their seven home conference wins have come by double digits, so don’t let that 1-6-1 ATS number fool you into thinking this team has underperformed in ANY way. They have NOT.
Meanwhile, UCLA HAS underperformed against the spread. They are just 4-11 ATS in conference play and 2-6 on the road. They haven’t been an underdog in a single conference game this season, so tonight is a first, but I will say they have lost on the road at USC (not pretty) and Oregon (thriller).
I just think Arizona is slightly better at home, and they should at least be getting the standard Vegas home three. At just -1, Arizona is such a good value.
Today’s Free Pick: Arizona Wildcats -1
Purdue Boilermakers -1 at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan has made a nice run to get back in the tourney picture and likely in the Field of 68. But I am still not sold on this being a particularly good basketball team. They are just 8-7 in conference play and 6-9 ATS. They are just 1-3 as an underdog this season in the Big Ten.
Meanwhile, Purdue is looking to lock up an outright conference title and appears to be hitting their stride as a team. They are 5-2 on the road SU in conference play with a nice win at Maryland. They enter tonight on a six game winning streak that includes road wins at Indiana, Maryland and Penn State and dominating home wins over Michigan State and Northwestern.
I just think Purdue is the vastly superior team and a great value at just -1. Michigan has a few wins lately and the win over Wisconsin changed the perception of this team, but keep in mind that win was without Bronson Koenig suiting up, and the wins over Michigan State and Indiana are two struggling teams with big names. I think Purdue is in a different class and expect them to show it today.
Today’s Free Pick: Purdue Boilermakers -1
BYU Cougars at Gonzaga Bulldogs -19
Gonzaga has had only one home game settled by less than 30 points this season and that was a 23-point home win over St. Mary’s – who could legitimately make the Sweet 16 this year. Laying 19 points seems insane, but in 2015-2016 Golden State Warriors fashion, it is getting hard to set a line wide enough to make the Zags a bad bet. And believe me, Vegas is trying.
Gonzaga is 13-3-1 ATS in conference play. Let that sink in… 13-3-1 despite having MASSIVE spreads that have widened every week. BYU is 6-10-1 ATS and 3-5 ATS on the road. Gonzaga has covered nine of eleven at home and covered five of their last six games overall.
Even more fun, not only can they seal the first perfect regular season in school history tonight, they can exact some revenge for the annoyance BYU has been to them in the past two years by avenging two straight years of upset home losses to the Cougars.
I think this one is going to be a mauling. It FEELS crazy to lay 19 points, especially seeing “BYU” and thir recent history against the Zags, but this year is THIS YEAR. I don’t care what happened in 2015. I care about today. And today, Gonzaga is the most dominant team in the country and I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas now.
Today’s Free Pick: Gonzaga Bulldogs -19
Good luck today everyone – enjoy the hoops!! And be sure to check in often over the next few weeks as we gear up for Conference Championship Week and the NCAA T
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