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December 21st – Top College Basketball Values

The start to the 2016-2017 college basketball season has been purely awesome.  Anyone whining about “pace of play” or “quality of play” or “the regular season doesn’t mean anything” either hasn’t watched a college game this season, or frankly, never really liked the sport to begin with.

This college basketball season, in my humble opinion, is off malik-monk-game-winnerto the best start of any season in the last ten years.  What more could you ask for??  We just got a 103-100 game between North Carolina and Kentucky on a neutral floor where veteran Justin Jackson led Carolina with 34 points, freshman Lottery Pick-to-be D’Aaron Fox dropped 24 and dished out 10 assists, and neither was even CLOSE to the best player on the floor while Malik Monk shattered the Kentucky freshman scoring record and set an NCAA season-high with FORTY SEVEN including a game-winning three while Coach Cal screamed “drive it, drive it!!”

We’ve seen UCLA go into Rupp and win in a thriller and the berth of Kidd 2.0, Lonzo Ball.  We’ve seen Kansas beat Duke on a buzzer beater, Indiana beat North Carolina and Villanova roar back to remain perfect against legendary giant-killer Notre Dame.  And we’ve seen Fort Wayne beat Indiana and FAU win at Ohio State.  We are watching the best crop of freshman in a long time all playing at a high level.  We have veterans leading fantastic teams with National Championship aspirations like Josh Hart an unbeaten defending champ Villanova and Frank Mason at Kansas.

The most tradition rich schools in the sport are nearly all REALLY good; Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Indiana and UCLA could all cut down the nets.  There are upstarts that are unbeaten like Creighton and Baylor and Gonzaga.  The best conferences in the country are really deep and competitive, and there are some really good less-than-household names like St. Mary’s and Dayton and Valpo to satisfy your Cinderella cravings.

In short -this season has EVERYTHING.

So to anyone still bemoaning the state of college hoops, frankly, you are just haven’t been watching the games this year.  College basketball is as good as it has been in a decade, so jump on and enjoy the ride.  Don’t just show up in March.  You’d really be missing out on something fantastic.

No – I am NOT just saying this because I am 18-5 ATS on the Saturday Edge with my featured picks and 19-7 ATS including leans and suggestions.  I am saying it because it is real-talk.  (But, 78.2% ATS does make the world look a bit sunnier, let’s just keep it real…)

Feel free to agree, disagree, conversate, or (politely) troll anytime on Twitter @TheMarchManiacs – it’s always cool to have some hoops debates with fellow junkies!

We have one last loaded slate of non-conference action taking place today, highlighted by the most acrimonious rivalry in the sport; Kentucky and Louisville.  You know a rivalry is good when a t-shirt reading “at least our Coach only cheated OFF the court” is worn with pride…

Let’s dive in to today’s best value lines on the board.

 

frank-martinClemson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks -2

It is easy to just look at this game and the still-suspended Sindarius Thornwell and simply lean towards the quality road team getting the points.  But despite the absence of their undisputed best player, Frank Martin’s squad continues to defend with ferocity and still be a very tough team to tackle.  PJ Dozier has stepped up on the scoring end, scoring 20-plus in every game since the absence of Thornwell and the ‘Cocks are still holding teams to a scant 57 points a night, making offensive explosions less important.  As long as they can score some points, they should still be fine.  Dozier appears to have that covered.

Clemson has high hopes this season after getting Jarron Blossomgame to withdraw his name from NBA consideration.  The first-team All-ACC’er leads the 8-2 Tigers into a fierce rivalry in enemy territory tonight.  Clemson lost a to Xavier on a neutral floor and the six-point loss to Oklahoma isn’t a great loss, despite OU still SOUNDING impressive.  Their best wins are Georgia, Davidson and Nebraska – all decent wins but none over Top 35 teams. The early season isn’t a disappointment, per se, but I see nothing to think this team can crack the Top Six in the ACC and be anything more than a bubble-hopeful.

South Carolina was narrowly edged out by Seton Hall in New York right after losing Thornwell.  Other than that, they are perfect this season with nice wins over Monmouth, Michigan and Syracuse.  Again, Michigan and Syracuse SOUND a little better than they might end up being, but still a decent slate -especially given how BAD their non-con schedule has been in year’s past.

These two teams are fairly even without Thornwell, though South Carolina will likely end up with a much better record as life in the SEC is fair simpler than that of the ACC gauntlet.  Tonight comes down to defense and emotion on the home floor.  USC is already a dynamic defensive unit, and I think the home court edge will be too much for Clemson to overcome tonight.

Free Pick:  South Carolina Gamecocks -2

 

cal-bearsVirginia Cavaliers -4 at Cal Bears

This is an interesting game.  Cal is unranked, and with their current season resume, they don’t deserve consideration.  They are 9-2 with a bad loss to San Diego State and a three-point loss to Seton Hall.  Their best wins are probably Princeton and Wyoming.  Yuck.

But they have two incredibly talented young players rounding into form after missing games to injury in Ivan Raab and Jabari Bird and the emergence of freshman Charlie Moore as one of the best scoring point guards in the country makes this team very dangerous and difficult to defend.  Cal’s schedule thus far is frankly shameful, but they can validate it with a win tonight.   They have the talent to do so, but picking them tonight requires a bit of a leap of faith, as they have only played one legit Top 50 team this season (Seton Hall) and lost.

However, the Hall game was in Pearl Harbor, tonight is at home sweet home.  That means a realllly log trip for Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers and a late game start for the body clocks of the Cavaliers.  They took a big hit losing big man Austin Nicholls and are still trying to fill in the scoring/leadership gap from the graduated Malcolm Brogdon.  Virginia still defends well, but there are some real offensive shortcomings on this year’s squad.  Their leading scorer is London Perantes at 9.6 points a game.  You can laud their balance, but at the end of the day, six dudes scoring eight points a night ain’t gonna get it done against good teams.  They were lucky to escape Ohio State at home and got popped by an athletic West Virginia team.  Cal can bring similar athleticism and even more NBA-level talent to the party.

I think tonight is an upset special.  I like Cal with the points and wouldn’t be opposed to getting a little greedy and grabbing some extra juice on the moneyline.

Free Pick:  Cal Bears +4

 

Those are my two favorite plays on the board.  I’ll be back next week with a nice broad overview of the entire country before conference play begins with some sleepers to watch and some overvalued teams to be wary.  In the meantime, Happy Holidays, and Happy Hoops!

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