We’ve decided to do a season-long statistical “case study” of the 2016 Texas Longhorns. Heading into the new campaign, they were arguably facing the most “volatile” outlook of any team in the country. The downside was obvious. If the team didn’t produce, head coach Charlie Strong would have been shown the door and considered a failure after three years at the helm (The Horns were 11-14 under Strong after two seasons).

But a summer full of very positive buzz was suggesting that a breakthrough season might be in the offing. Many TV pundits were picking Texas as their surprise team of 2016. Some thought they might shock the world at the top of the Big 12.

Feast or famine!

The season began this past Sunday on a very humid night in Austin. Electricity was in the air…LITERALY! You may have seen the shots of distant lightning at halftime of ABC’s telecast. But, the crowd was as boisterous and enthusiastic as any locals have seen for years. This was a LOUD 102,000…from opening kickoff through the singing of “The Eyes of Texas” a few hours later.

Let’s run the numbers then talk about what the Longhorns 50-47 overtime victory might mean for the 2016 campaign and beyond.

Texas 50, Notre Dame 47 (in overtime, off 37-all tie)

Total Yardage: Notre Dame 444, Texas 517

Yards-Per-Play: Notre Dame 5.8, Texas 6.0

Rushing Yards: Notre Dame 206, Texas 237

Passing Stats: Notre Dame 17-30-0-238, Texas 16-27-1-280

Turnovers: Notre Dame 0, Texas 1

First of all, that’s a clean win. This wasn’t a “lucky” victory in terms of fluky special teams’ points or cheap scores off of turnovers. Sure, it could have gone either way in the closing minutes and overtime. But, Texas outgained Notre Dame on the ground, in the air, and per-play. A very good sign for Texas moving forward, even if the Irish are destined to be a 2016 disappointment not deserving of their #10 ranking entering the season.

Most important developments for Texas fans:

• True freshman quarterback Shane Buechele already looks like a veteran college passer.
• The adjustment to a very fast up-tempo approach showed virtually no transition issues.
• There are ATHLETES all over the field.
• Lethal running quarterback Tyrone Swoopes has embraced his new role…one which hides his weaknesses and celebrates his clear strengths.

You knew all the players would be wearing hardhats because this is a Charlie Strong team. But FAST became the key word from the very outset. Not only did the new fast-break offense hit on all cylinders (or most, anyway) from the get-go…but there’s speed on the receiving corps that’s going to give opponents nightmares all season.

• John Burt scored on a 72-yard bomb…and dropped what would have been another long TD
• Jerrod Heard (converted QB) earned a 68-yard gain on a reception

Yes, it’s only one game. But, we can at least say that a sky high upside might be in play. Texas is now running Baylor’s offense. They skipped the awkward transition phase that should happen with new players and a new system. Texas basically matched the stats that annual powerhouse Ohio State put up against Notre Dame in last season’s Fiesta Bowl (that was a yards-per-play tie at 5.8, with regulation-time yardage this past Sunday very similar to OSU’s 496-405 bowl advantage). The upside down the road is…Texas could have Baylor’s potent offense but with even better athletes!

Some cold water…

• Not every game will be at home.
• Notre Dame lost a lot of starters in the offseason, and may have been overrated
• It’s more difficult to maintain peak intensity than it is to build all summer for one “biggest game of your life” performance.
• Texas flips from being the hunter to the hunted in most matchups moving forward.
• The defense still has a lot of work to do (particularly in forcing turnovers).
• Even if 2016 is a huge success, new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert will get hired away to run his own program next season!

 

If Notre Dame turns out to be more like the #40 team in the nation than #10, then this past Sunday might have been a school of red herrings in terms of a really big Longhorns breakthrough. We’ll know more about that in a couple of weeks when both teams will face decent challenges. Notre Dame will host Michigan State on September 17 (after what should be a safe home opener against a Nevada team that had to go OT with Cal Poly). Texas visits California that day (after trying to avoid a letdown against physically outmatched UTEP).

Choosing to do a case study on Texas may have led us into an evolutionary development in college football. If you watched Clemson/Auburn Saturday night, you know that offensive guru Gus Malzahn was aggressively rotating Auburn’s quarterbacks to try to keep the opposing defense off track. Just as speeding up play was a tactic to disrupt defenses, “situational quarterbacking” may be the next wave to hit the sport. Auburn almost stole a win against the defending national runners-up. Texas clearly showed you can dominate the point of attack (or downfield) if you have elite skill sets split between different signal callers. (Auburn may not have elite talent at the position…so we’ll have to see if that implodes there or not)

For years, there’s been valid skepticism against using two quarterbacks. It wasn’t working! But that was often because you had a pair of “B” to “B-minus” quarterbacks splitting time who weren’t qualified to run the whole show. Or, the run-based package was too simplified and easy to contain. (Not to mention that some head coaches run mediocre offenses no matter who’s playing.) Swoopes isn’t easy to contain! Splitting time between an “A” passer and an “A” runner within a fast-paced offense that over-tasks defenses will light up scoreboards.

Plus, high schools are more likely to crank out “A” passers or “A” runners rather than fully ready complete packages anyway. Major League baseball evolved away from 4-man rotations of starting pitchers who were expected to aim for complete games. Skepticism against 5-man rotations soon faded away, as did skepticism against using relief specialists in the final third of the game. We’ll at least monitor this issue as long as it stays on the radar.

Back with you next week to review the numbers from Texas-UTEP. That will be the last Texas home game until mid-October, with at California, at Oklahoma State, and the annual clash with Oklahoma in Dallas on deck.

---

Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

---