It is an absolutely gigantic day of college hoops as nearly every major conference offers up some great matchups today. There’s a little something for everyone. Like top ranked teams licking their wounds and trying to avoid an 0-2 conference start? Then the noon Butler at Xavier tip is right up your alley. Like two struggling teams that have work to do to make the Big Dance despite entering the season with Final Four dreams? Then tune in to tonight’s LSU at Vanderbilt tilt (and you at least get to see Ben Simmons and the Four Dudes in action – sounds like a really bad Broadway Play, right?).

Or maybe you want to see home teams host higher regarded foes with a legitimate chance to swing David’s slingshot? If so, then how about Indiana at Nebraska , Villanova at Creighton, or Texas at Texas Tech? Maybe West Virginia at Kansas State, Michigan State at Minnesota, or Maryland at Northwestern?

Or maybe you want to see some teams with nice early season records try to validate the record despite an, ehm, less than awesome schedule… If so, Memphis at South Carolina or Ole Miss at Kentucky (or the aforementioned K-State and N’Western games are perfect).

No matter what, it is going to be a dynamite day of college hoops. So let’s span the schedule and the clock and hone in on three hopefully winning wagers.

 

Today’s Wagering Picks:

Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers -9

I really like this Purdue team, and have stated it here on several occasions prior. They were one of my favorite future wagers back in November and I still think they could make a Final Four run. Their frontcourt is huge and athletic – yes, they still LOOK like an NBA team. Seven-footer AJ Hammonds scored 45 points and blocked 9 shots in their last two games, and he may not be the best seven-footer on his own team. But they do have some point guard question marks. So far, their point guard rotation has been just OK, and the clear weak link to an otherwise Final Four caliber team.

The tremendous size of Purdue (Hammond and Hayes) and the awesomeness of still-blossoming 6’9’’ freshman Caleb Swanigan make Purdue an obviously good defensive team in the paint. They are holding teams to just 34.3% shooting and hav one of the best rebounding differentials in the country at +12.0.

But Iowa is a little different team. First of all, they have size of their own. But more importantly, they have size that can roam comfortably away from the basket and shoot the ball. Jared Utoff is a tough cover. The 6’9’’ senior is averaging nearly 18 points a game and is shooting nearly 46% from distance. That’s lethal. And even if Caleb Swanigan (a good matchup) gets the assisgnment, it still leaves Purdue’s big guys chasing an even smaller and quicker opponent. And you can’t zone Iowa, because everyone on their team can shoot the rock. They have five players shooting over 43% from three point range and seven-footer Adam Woodbury has been capable inside – playing almost a four around one offense.

I think this is a difficult matchup for Purdue, and despite being at home, I am surprised they are laying quite this many points. A few computer simulations have this game around 73-69 for Purdue, and I agree that this will be a closer contest than Vegas expects. I really like this Iowa team – they may be my current favorite unranked team in the country. They can shoot, shoot, shoot – and in today’s college basketball, that is a huge advantage. I think Purdue gets a narrow win, but I am not opposed to a nice +375 flyer on Iowa – it’s a really good value for a team that could reasonably win the game.

Today’s Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +9

Maryland Terrapins -4 at Northwestern Wildcats

Let’s stay in the Big Ten for today’s second pick. Look, I like Northwestern. And like nearly every other sentimental college basketball fan, I am rooting for the only major conference team to NEVER make the NCAA Tournament to break that insane streak. And at 13-1, a lot of people think this could be the year for Chris Collins and crew to finally break through. But caution, caution, caution… LOOK at their dumpster of a schedule. It’s hard to be 13-1, in a major conference, and STILL barely crack the RPI Top 100. But that is exactly where Northwestern currently sits. To see them only getting four against a Final Four caliber team like Maryland is a little stunning.

Maryland is one of the best teams in the country, despite a few slugginsh performances, including the sleep-waling opener in which they flirted with a hilarious home loss to Penn State for about 37 minutes. While losing to a team that lost to Duquesne at home by 30 would be embarrassing, some good came from the struggle; namely the sincere discovery of inside beast Diamond Stone. The freshman sensation notched 39 points in the win and if his sterling play continues, this team truly has everything; an elite point guard in Melo Trimble, a big beast in the paint in Stone, a NBA-level stretch four in Jake Layman, sharp-shooting with Soulamain and defense and leadership with Carter. It’s a National Championship type roster.

So forget the struggles earlier this week and just look at these two teams. Maryland is SO MUCH better it is kind of ridiculous. Northwestern is at home, and strange things happen at home from time to time, but I fear that today is a thudding regression to the inevitable mean for the ‘Cats. They are very improved and could wind up sneaking into the Tourney (hope they do). But they aren’t good enough to get just a few points against Maryland, no matter where the game is played. Add in the fact that seven-footer Alex Olah, who averaged 18/7 over his last three games, is out with an injury, and things get even more unlikely tonight.

Look for Maryland to dominate the game and win by double digits.

Today’s Free Pick: Maryland Terrapins -4

 

Memphis Tigers at South Carolina Gamecocks -8

Chalk this one up to another simple example of “who have you beaten” analysis. South Carolina is unbeaten… and untested. The Gamecocks schedule has been so devoid of any real challenges, that it is hard to see them blowing out a reasonably competitive Memphis squad tonight. I’ll take my third underdog of the day today with Josh Pastner’s often-sloppy, but at least tested crew. Memphis enters at 9-3 with a pair of six-point losses to Oklahoma and Ole Miss and a tough loss to Texas Arlington (a better team than it might sound to the non-hoops junkie)

Meanwhile, South Carolina’s best wins are a pair of home wins over bottom-feeders DePaul and St. John’s and a trip to Clemson. Today’s visit from the tigers will be their sternest test of the season. I feel like we see this story every year (see: TCU last year or, ehm, South Carolina). A team wraps up an impressive non-conference perfect slate only to enter the gauntlet of conference play and quickly fade from NCAA Hopeful to NIT doubtful in the span of six weeks. I am not sure the floor is that low for Frank Martin’s club, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose outright today and definitely expect them to be challenged severely.

Today’s Free Pick: Memphis Tigers +8

                                            

TODAY’S ULTRA-VALUE UNDERDOG PARLAY:

Here’s a long shot value round-robin parlay I like with three big underdogs that could win their games outright: Memphis +320, Iowa +375, Iowa State +320

Good luck today and enjoy some wall-to-wall awesome hoops!