The long, long week is almost over. If Thanksgiving is “Feast” week, then we are square in the middle of “Famine Week” right now. Each year college hoops goes dark for about a week for final exams, as well as a little pause before the tectonic shift to conference play. And while it may not be great television for us die-hards, it does provide a nice little pause to reassess the national landscape before things get fast and furious once again.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at a few teams that have surprised, a few that have disappointed, and a few that SHOULD be more on the collective radar from a wagering perspective.

Early Season FAILS:

Wisconsin – A disappointing 6-5 start that included losses at the Kohl Center to Milwaukee and Western Illinois got even more perplexing with the sudden and jarring retirement of Bo Ryan. I got a few playful Tweets about the “soon to be released scandal” but I think the reason for the abrupt departure was far less sinister; it’s a power play to make sure Wisky has to at least consider hiring his long-time assistant (reports were they were unwilling to guarantee it – as is WELL within their right). I’m not a fan of screwing the players in this fashion, and I think this could very well be a sign of the beginning of a lost season in Madison.

Perhaps the players respond well, but I’m not willing to put MY money on it. The Badgers are a miserable 4-8 ATS this season and Big Ten play and the deep middle pack of that conference is looming. I’ll obviously wait and see some lines, but am already anxious for opportunities to fade the Badgers against Northwestern and Iowa and a few other middle of the pack’ers.

Minnesota – Staying in the Big Ten, Minnesota is also 6-5 and a dreadful 2-9 ATS. Wager on Pitino’s kid at your own peril…

LSU – We’ve already picked on the Tigers before, but they are still WINLESS against the spread this season. WINLESS. So while people continue to slobber (appropriately) over Ben Simmons, be careful also doing so with your wagering dollars…

Kentucky – Okay, okay, so “Fail” is a little harsh. But it is time to put that early showing against Duke out of memory. It is hard for me too, because on opening night I saw a team with the highest ceiling of any team in the country. But the simple truth is, they haven’t been THAT team since. They are just 2-7 ATS in the games that have followed. This is still obviously a very good team and a Final Four possibility. But they aren’t dominating people, and they sure aren’t covering very often right now.

Harvard – This is another tricky one. They SOUND good because they have been for a while. But the truth is, this team is way back of Princeton, Yale and Columbia in the Ivy. They are just 1-7 ATS on the season and 3-6 straight up. Pick some different smart kids for your next wager.

Baylor – The Bears may be 8-1 and nationally ranked, but their 0-3 ATS mark tells me they haven’t played much of a schedule, and the few foes they HAVE played have kept it closer than expected. The Big 12 is loaded, and I am a little concerned Baylor might not be fully ready for what is coming. I like the idea of fading them in their first few conference road games before the lines catch up to the fact their ranking is pretty speculative at this point.  This team COULD be good, but it is hard to put them in the Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State class until they play a few more real games (yes, I know, 1-1 against Oregon and Vandy – but what else??)

 

EARLY SEASON MONEY –

UCF – Full disclosure, I did my undergrad at UCF – but let’s also be real in disclosing it ain’t like most UCF grads base their March travel plans on where the hoops team might end up. However, this season, UCF has been one of the best wagers in all of D1 hoops. They are 5-3 SU and a PERFECT 7-0 ATS.

Colorado – I don’t expect this to last into Pac 12 play, but the Buffs are 8-1 SU and a nice 6-2 ATS right now. They may be a nice sleeper play if they are catching a ton of points early in January.  The Pac-12 is pretty muddled with the mixed bag from UCLA, Arizona State, and Oregon and disappointing early play from Utah and Cal.   There could be as many as eight tourney teams here and as few as four.

George Washington – The Colonials are 9-1, and this team is legit. They are 5-2 ATS, but also have some really nice wins and covers on their schedule. This looks like an NCAA Tournament team to me.  But I have cooled considerably on the rest of the A-10 as VCU, Rhode Island and Richmond look less March-ready than I thought they might be…

Georgia Tech – This is a nice ACC middle of the pack sleeper. They are 7-2 SU and fresh off a pasting of VCU. They are a nice 6-3 ATS and seem poised to make a run a respectability for the first time in quite a few years. This is a proud program historically – maybe this is the kindling of something good.

Kansas State – 7-2 overall, but a perfect 5-0-1 ATS for the Wildcats. Again, the Big 12 is loaded, but perhaps some nice sneaky value is lurking with the Wildcats.  I think most people will assume they are behind Baylor, Kansas State and maybe even Okie State.  I’m not sure I would…

Louisville – This is an intriguing case. If it is possible for a team that is less than three years removed from a National Championship with a Hall of Fame Coach and an high-profile off-season sex scandal to be UNDER the radar, than that is certainly the case for this year’s Louisville Cardinals. They are 8-1 and seem to have reloaded far more quickly than anyone anticipated.

Look, like him or find his books on ethics and leadership to be pee-your-pants hilarity, Ricky Pitino can C-O-A-C-H. If NOT for all the off-season nonsense this team is probably ranked higher. In the meantime, they are a great value for us as wagerers. The Cards are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season.

TIGHTEN UP YOUR (SUN) BELT –

Two of the best wagers in the country are flying under the radar in the Sun Belt. The conference had been dominated by Georgia State the past few years, and all the coaches loved Louisiana; Monroe and Lafayette, in the preseason polls. But it has been Arkansas Little Rock and UT-Arlington that have stolen the show. Picked 6^th and 10^th respectively, they are 9-0 and 8-2 SU and 5-0 and 8-1 ATS.

I don’t pretend to be a Sun Belt hoops die-hard, but these are two quality ballclubs, and the league is setting itself up nicely for multiple-bids if Arkansas Little Rock can finish the pre-con unbeaten. Both have been incredible wagers, so keep them on your radar. Plus you can feel super smugly-smart come Bracket time by rattling off “Arlington hung right with Texas in Austin. That’s a solid ballclub.”

 

FUTURE WAGERS:

I am pretty sure I have yapped about my feeling on Future wagers before, but a quick recap: I’m not a fan of most of them, simply because you lay money out half a year in advance on a line you can probably get months and months later. The ONLY time I DO like them in college hoops is if I can get a team I feel good about earning a Top 4 seed well above 50:1. That line won’t be there in March, and with a break or two, could yield ridiculous hedging opportunities. So here are my few faves.

Xavier – Tired of me yapping about the Muskies? Well, did you see them route Cincinnati last weekend? Sadly, the world has finally joined me on this bandwagon (Jay Bilas proclaimed them a Final Four team last weekend) and the lines have FINALLY closed. I was in at +10000, now it is down all the way to +2200 – which makes it, sadly, a HOLD, as it is finally about appropriately valued…

Wichita State – The Van Vleet injury opened the door here. 75:1? Good value. Is this a Final Four team? Probably not. Could they run the table from here and get a #4 or #5 seed once the committee dismisses the early losses for being without their All-American floor leader? Sure.

Indiana – Hear me out, hear me out. Yes, I still have ALL the questions I raised two weeks ago. BUT, now that odds have ballooned to 50 or even 60 to 1, are you going to find a more talented team in the nation at this price? A team that COULD put it together and get to the final weekend? I’m not betting REAL money here, just sayin’ that some value has crept back in to the Hoosiers. Let’s see how they look this weekend against Notre Dame in Indy.

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Before we part, let’s just drop a quick schedule preview for the awesomeness that is this Saturday. I’ll be back Saturday morning with a full slate of round-the-clock picks and see if we can put another winning weekend together.

Here’s some action to look forward to: (all times Eastern)

NOON: Wichita State vs. Seton Hall, Georgia Tech vs. Georgia, Villanova vs. Virginia, Utah vs. Duke, Auburn vs. Xavier

1PM: North Carolina vs. UCLA

2PM: Notre Dame vs. Indiana (@Indianapolis), Creighton vs. Oklahoma

3:30PM: Ohio State vs. Kentucky

4PM: Cincinnati vs. VCU

5PM: Butler vs. Purdue (@Indianapolis)

7PM: Northern Iowa vs. Iowa State

8PM: Oklahoma State vs. Florida

9PM: Baylor vs. Oklahoma State, UNLV vs. Arizona

11PM: Tennessee vs. Gonzaga, Texas vs. Stanford

It’s going to be an awesome day of hoops, so be sure to check back for some picks against the spread on Saturday morning!