Bills -1.5

The Eagles come into this game off a shocking 35-28 win at New England and I believe it’ has created some great value here with the Bills only laying 1.5 instead of what likely would have been 3 or more had Philadelphia lost last week to the Patriots. What made the win so surprising is that the Eagles came into that game off back-to-back blowout losses to the Buccaneers (17-45) and Lions (14-45). 

While some might see that win as a sign of Philadelphia turning the corner for the stretch run, I’m not buying the Eagles having magically cured their problems. In fact, a closer look at the box score shows that the win was more of a fluke than anything. Philadelphia fell behind 14-0 and trailed 14-7 before an onslaught of special teams and defensive touchdowns.

The Eagles returned a blocked punt for a touchdown, then with the Patriots about to take the lead back, Malcolm Jenkins picked off Tom Brady and returned it 99 yards for a touchdown. Shortly after that, Darren Sproles had a 83-yard punt return for a touchdown. Even with all this good fortune, the Eagles barely held on to win by 7. 

Not only did Philadelphia benefit from 3 non-offensive touchdowns, they were completely outplayed on the field. The Patriots had a 427 to 248 advantage in total yards and a 27-14 edge in first downs. Keep in mind that New England’s offense has been decimated by injuries, so giving up 28 points and 427 yards is nothing to get excited about for a defense that had allowed 90 points and 951 total yards in their previous 2 games combined. 

Buffalo comes into this contest fresh off a 30-21 win over the Texans, which I don’t think they are getting near enough credit for. Houston came into that game having won 4 straight in which they allowed a combined 35 points. I know the Bills are just 6-6, but I  have been much more impressed with this team than the Eagles and I think we are going to see Buffalo go on a big run here to close out the season. 

With the Eagles defense a complete mess right now and the Bills seeming to find their stride offensively, I look for the Bills to put light up the stat sheet on Sunday. At the same time, I look for Buffalo’s dominant defensive front to have their way with a sub-par Philadelphia offensive line and in turn make life miserable for Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford. 

Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in the 2nd half of the season against strong passing teams that are averaging 235 or more yards/game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in the month of December. The Eagles on the other hand are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 in December, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 at home, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 after allowing more than 350 total yards. Take Buffalo!