Smithers513 Weekend Preview

With the first reduced slate of college football games this season, I thought I’d get a preview out for a trio of the weekend’s best games. I pulled KenPom numbers for spread projections.

Arizona @ Gonzaga (Projection: Gonzaga -7)

When these two teams met last season, it was one of the better games of the non-conference portion of the year, with Arizona squeezing out a win at home over a talented Gonzaga squad. These teams are replacing some major contributors from that game, but the Zags front court has remained in tact, and the trio of Wiltjer, Karnowski, and Sibonas keeps getting better as their tenure increases. Gonzaga had a fairly good showing in the Bahamas in their holiday tournament, but I think it exposed the Zags weakness, and that is replicating the backcourt production that Pangos and Bell were able to give them last year. This game will be a great watch. Gonzaga boasts the nation’s 10th most efficient offense, and Arizona as usual, is showing stout defensive statistics, ranking 10th in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga’s guards are going to be the different in whether this team makes a run in March, and they’ll get a test against the athletic Arizona backcourt. Arizona’s offense has issues of their own against premier competition, and I think Providence showed that the Wildcats are very beatable when they can’t overwhelm teams with their athleticism.

Syracuse @ Georgetown (Projection: Georgetown -4)

I’d just like to first and foremost thank Syracuse and Georgetown for getting this game on the schedule, as the old classic Big East rivalry is renewed. Syracuse showed in winning the Battle of Atlantis among a talented field that this team has a high ceiling. They spread the floor with shooters, and as always their 2-3 zone seemed to slow down some talented teams. What will prove to be Syracuse’s achilles heel this season is their ability to take care of the ball, as they currently are 309th in the country in turnover percentage. When the Orange take care of the ball and don’t squander offensive opportunities, they have enough scorers on the wing and backcourt to play with and beat anybody. I would be willing to bet a coach like future HOF’er Jim Boeheim will be able to correct that issue sooner rather than later. For Georgetown, I think a lot of people were willing to bury the Hoyas after losing to Radford in the season opener, but they have rebounded quite nicely playing Maryland tough in College Park and losing to Duke by 2, and handling Wisconsin. I would expect the line to open a bit shorter than the Hoyas -4, and in typical old school Big East fashion I think it will be decided in the final possessions.

Vandy @ Baylor (Projection: Baylor -4)

This may end up being the game of the weekend on Sunday night. Vanderbilt is a team that I was high on going into the season, and a strong performance in Maui from them I believe justified that. Their second half performance versus Kansas I think showed that this team has some notable flaws, most pressing in their ability to defend on the perimeter. The Commodores have enough talent to overwhelm inferior teams, but when matching uo with teams of Kansas’ pedigree, they really struggled guarding. Kansas seemingly got every look they wanted in that second half. Vanderbilt can also get extremely reliant on the long ball. When they’re falling, Vandy will put up points in a hurry, but with their inability to guard off the dribble, the game can swing out of control, and quickly. I think Vanderbilt may struggle in this game because they are going to face a really tough Baylor team that is going to throw a similar attack at them that they faced against Kansas. The Bears have four players averaging double figures, and you know they will attack the boards and defend. I think Vandy needs to shoot nearly 45% from beyond the arc to have a reasonable chance to win this game, as I’m not sure the ‘Dores may be ready for the level of physicality this game is going to have.