Showcase Stat Preview – #4 Iowa vs. #5 Michigan State

The #4 Iowa Hawkeyes remain one of the biggest mysteries of the 2015 season, as they prepare for Saturday’s Big 10 Championship against the #5 Michigan State Spartans. That showdown looks to be a virtual play-in game for the Final Four…unless both teams look so terrible Saturday that the committee can’t justify putting the winner into the Dance!

Why so much mystery surrounding Iowa? They managed to dodge both Michigan State and Ohio State in the Big 10’s schedule rotation, while running the table in their much weaker division. Outside of the league…their toughest opponent was mediocre Pittsburgh, who they only beat 27-24. Their true quality is hard to gauge because they’re so untested…and the caliber of their test is even harder to gauge!

 

According to Jeff Sagarin of USA Today

Michigan State is #11 in the country, while playing the #53 ranked schedule

Iowa is #14 in the country, while playing the #62 ranked schedule

That assessment would have the teams fairly even…though with neither team good enough to play in an eight-team championship tournament, let alone a four-team tourney. Neither schedule ranks in the top 50 according to Sagarin.

 

According to FEI of Football Outsiders

Michigan State is #6 in the country, while playing the #27 ranked schedule

Iowa is #18 in the country, while playing the #72 ranked schedule

This analytic approach (created by Brian Fremeau of FO) smiles much more favorably on Michigan State and their schedule. Iowa wouldn’t even qualify for a Sweet 16! And, Iowa’s schedule even looks more pathetic. Funny how Sagarin sees the schedule as similar while Fremeau doesn’t. Perceptions are about to get even more extreme!

 

According to S+P of Football Outsiders

Michigan State is #11 in the country, while playing the #13 ranked schedule

Iowa is #29 in the country, while playing the #104 ranked schedule

Wait a second…now Michigan State has played a GREAT schedule while Iowa’s played one of the most pathetic schedules of any bowl bound team. Also, Iowa would barely qualify for a 32-team tournament from outside the Top 25 according to S+P (created by Bill Connelly of FO).

There’s a clear consensus that Iowa isn’t remotely a top four caliber team…though they might be anywhere from #14-29 amongst good faith analytical efforts to rate everybody. But, their schedule might be close to MSU’s at #62, or miles away from MSU at #104. Have they been “kinda tested,” or “barely tested?”

This is no small issue if you’re trying to use stats to handicap the game. If Iowa and Michigan State have played similar schedules…then Iowa +3.5 is the right side as an underdog. If Michigan State has played a significantly more demanding schedule…then they might deserve to be favored by as much as a touchdown rather than just over a field goal.

 

 

Average Score

Michigan State: 33.4 to 21.1 (+12.3 points per game)

Iowa: 33.7 to 18.7 (+15 points per game)

 

Average Yards-per-Play (offense to defense)

Michigan State: 5.7 to 5.4 (just +0.3, which is very poor amongst elites)

Iowa: 6.0 to 4.8 (+1.2, which is clear dominance)

 

Third Down Conversion Rates (offense to defense)

Michigan State: 51% to 36% (very good, trumping YPP in a way)

Iowa: 44% to 36% (nice, but might break even vs. real schedule)

 

Turnover Differential for the season

Michigan State: +14

Iowa: +14 (both are fundamentally sound, and exploit other’s mistakes)

If these teams have played roughly the same schedule in terms of caliber…then Iowa isn’t the inferior side. They’re better on the scoreboard…and that big edge on a per-play basis isn’t fully negated by MSU’s efficient approach to moving the chains. We have two conservative-minded teams who grind out victories in a conference that celebrates grinding.

But…if Michigan State has played the significantly tougher schedule (in line with results of the methodology at Football Outsiders)…then we’re looking at a favorite that’s going to move the chains and get points on the board against an underdog that will be punting all day. If Iowa really has played a schedule that ranks in the 70-100 range…the Hawkeyes would have negative per-play, third down, and probably turnover differentials vs. quality. Michigan State is quality.

Let’s look at a couple of quick grinder stats before wrapping it up…

• Michigan State runs 57% of the time, while Iowa allows 3.4 yards-per-carry

• Iowa runs 62% of the time, while Michigan State allows 3.6 yards-per-carry

Both have good run defense stats…but Iowa may have been doing that vs. a pathetic schedule. Michigan State has the slightly more versatile approach with the quarterback who knows how to move the chains. So…again…your perception of their schedules will rule your visualization of the game.

• The case for Michigan State -3.5: they’re the better team that is more battle tested…and they have the more balanced approach that will help them drive for points much more often against an overmatched opponent that’s likely to spend the day punting or settling for field goal attempts. Iowa gets exposed vs. its toughest opponent of the season.

• The case for Iowa +3.5: after spending the week hearing that they don’t belong in the Final Four from media (and betting market) pundits all over the country, the Hawkeyes bring an “us against the world” mentality with a roster that’s better than analytics is giving them credit for. What worked in a 40-10 blowout of the Northwestern team that stunned Stanford shocks overconfident Michigan State. The last thing Sparty can do here is come in thinking “Hey, we beat Ohio State in Columbus, how hard could beating Iowa in Indianapolis be?”

Back Sunday in the “premium” section for a look at misleading finals scores from the final weekend before the bowls. Our big game stat previews will resume for the Final Four. The national semifinals will be played Thursday December 31 in the Cotton and Orange Bowls, with the championship game sent for Monday January 11 in Arizona.

Note…for postseason previews…aiming for:

Semifinal #1 posted Thursday 12/24

Semifinal #2 posted by Monday 12/28 (games are 12/31)

Championship posted by Thursday January 7 (game is 1/11)

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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