Who’s on upset alert in week 8?

From letdown spots to substantial matchups for some, Week 8 is offering some hefty underdogs poised to capitalize as dark horses.

Our job is to locate those lower-tier looks and profit off of them. Here are a few programs that need to be careful on Saturday.

 

Indiana at Michigan State (-16.5, 63.5)

We’ve endured every echoing narrative.

Michigan State pulls off one of the biggest miracles perhaps of all time, and it couldn’t have come in a bigger platform. Not only do the Spartans intrinsically cache the title of “big brother” over the Wolverines of Michigan but the streak of 24 points or more continues for Michigan State.

Undefeated and gripping their first win against the spread the Spartans will travel back to East Lansing for yet another Big Ten foe in the Hoosiers of Indiana University. It’s a team that ceased its foot off the gas pedal as it watched Rutgers storm back from 25 points down to stun the crowd in Bloomington.

This sets up a rather interesting scheme for IU head coach Kevin Wilson.

Calculating a blueprint via the offseason in how coaches respond to losses was a forte of mine during the offseason.

Now, monitoring this outline, Kevin Wilson may be hauled into a minor sample size, yet ranks highest of all FBS coaches. The model appears something like this:

I dub it ‘fight or flight.’ Taking teams that were five point favorites or more—which to me titles them as clear favorites in a matchup—and counseling their results the following week. Head coaches and their clubs could either rally around the loss or come to order (fight), or crumble under the lack of interest (flight).

Since Wilson was brought in to govern the Hoosiers in 2011, he’s lost four times as a favorite of five or more points. Here are the results the following week within that sample size:

W 31-27 vs Missouri (IU +14)

W 42-10 vs Bowling Green (IU -2.5)

W 52-35 vs Illinois (IU -9.5)

L 10-16 vs Penn State (IU +14)

Indiana has scraped up a +20.2 against the spread margin in this slot and is catching 16.5 on the road versus Michigan State.

I’m not necessarily fazed by the Hoosiers embarrassment last weekend. The offense received a big-time jolt from quarterback Nate Sudfeld and may also get running back Jordan Howard back this weekend.

While the Spartans flexed their muscles and boasted a capital win in Ann Arbor it’s still a team that’s had trouble shutting the door as massive favorites. 0-5 this season against the spread when listed a double-digit favorite and a road visit to Lincoln, Nebraska awaits Michigan State.

Indiana’s posed minimal stability on the defensive side of the ball but 16.5 is a ton of points for an offense that can hit paydirt when fully healthy. Michigan State retains some holes in the secondary; we just didn’t witness it last weekend. The Wolverines want to run first and use their tight ends, so we didn’t really catch a glimpse of how the back seven could be exploited versus the pass. I expect Indiana and Nate Sudfeld to do just that in what I’m hoping transitions into a tight-knit game.

Pick: Indiana +16.5/+630

 

Colorado at Oregon State (-2, 60)

The runt of the PAC 12 litter will square off on Saturday night to culminate the Week 8 docket.

In my opinion, it’s difficult not to side with the points here.

Colorado may be 3-4 and has been routed by a handful of conference opponents. It’s merely been luck of the draw in my opinion.

The Buffaloes met with an Oregon Ducks team that had been embarrassed at home versus Utah the week prior. They then mingled with the Arizona State club that had finally found an identity and stood no chance on the road. Last week’s showdown with Arizona, I felt like Colorado showed some signs of improvement.

Quarterback Sefo Liufau has gotten gradually better as the season has progressed in terms of passing yards and has been the prime benefactor of not turning the ball over.

Oregon State on the other hand is in disarray on both sides of the ball. I’ll take the better offense versus a Beavers team that hasn’t covered a conference spread the recent five tries.

Pick: Colorado +2.5/+125

 

Penn State at Maryland (+6.5, 48)

I half-heartedly feel bad for Christian Hackenberg. As much as I rag on the Penn State quarterback, he’s merely to blame for the lack of production. Every analyst across the map peg him as a potential first-round NFL talent, yet he doesn’t have much to work with.

The offensive line is brutal, receivers periodically drop passes, and it’s all starting to emanate.

Hackenberg was gingerly limping towards the end of last week’s contest versus Ohio State so the question points to health when the Nittany Lions travel to Maryland Saturday.

The Terps are wallowing in the thick of a gauntlet right now: prior meetings with West Virginia, Michigan and Ohio State, the program got a much-needed bye last weekend. With Wisconsin and Iowa waiting in the wing, it could be one of the last hopes to seize a win for the Terrapins.

Penn State has scored 14 points or fewer on the road in eight of ten occurrences since Hackenberg was named the signal-caller. It may not be a flashy game, but the points look appetizing here.

Pick: Maryland +6.5/+200