Big Ten Football Pick of the Week

 

Penn State (-6.5) at Maryland – 3:30 on ESPN

The Penn State Nittany Lions fell to 5-2 after a poor performance at Ohio State last Saturday night. PSU could take some positives from the defeat as they battled the Buckeyes for three quarters and only trailed by 11 after 45 minutes of play. Christian Hackenberg was pretty banged up and was even more immobile than normal so the Nittany Lions had to rely very heavily on the running game. Saquon Barkley answered the bell as he returned from injury to run for 194 yards on 26 carries. I’ve been incredibly impressed with the speed and vision of Barkley and I think he can have an absolute field day in Baltimore. That’s right, this game is listed as a home game for the Terps but it’s being played in Baltimore and there should be plenty of blue and white in the crowd.

It’s difficult to analyze the Maryland Terrapins because they are coming off of a bye week and they will be playing their first game without Randy Edsall at the helm. Edsall was fired after the Terps were blitzed by the Ohio State Buckeyes on October 10. While a bump in performance is certainly possible, it shouldn’t be assumed that replacing Randy Edsall with Mike Locksley is going to magically turn this season around. So while it can be scary to bet against a team that has had a bye week and is playing under an interim head coach, I like the matchups enough to take the Nittany Lions at -6.5.

Which matchups you ask? Excellent question, loyal reader. The best part of both offenses would be the rushing attack. Maryland has the 4^th ranked running game (according to S&P+) while Penn State has the 42^nd ranked running game. That number would be significantly better if Saquon Barkley would have been healthy and getting the majority of the carries. Barkley is a true difference maker and he’s currently averaging 8.3 yards on 68 carries. While Penn State has a pretty stout rush defense (along with an elite pass defense), the Maryland Terrapins are only 55^th in rushing defense and I expect Penn State to lean heavily on Barkley and Akeel Lynch to churn out this victory. Maryland relies on Brandon Ross, a big back that I don’t expect to be able to break through the sturdy duo of Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson, and quarterback Perry Hills to carry the rock. In short, both teams want to run the ball. I feel much better about the more explosive Saquon Barkley than I do about Ross and Hills and I feel better about the Penn State run defense than I do Maryland’s.

Another matchup that I like quite a bit is the Penn State pass rush, mainly Carl Nassib, going against a mediocre Maryland offensive line. Nassib is having a ridiculous season as he already has 11.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. According to Football Outsiders, the Penn State defensive line creates more “Havoc” than any line in the country. The secondary is elite and the defensive line has done a nice job of stopping the run and harassing passers when they attempt to pass. Maryland has a couple of decent defensive linemen in Yannick Ngakoue and Quinton Jefferson but I don’t think they can create near the problems that Ohio State did for Hackenberg last week and I like the ability of Chris Godwin to make a play when it’s necessary.

Penn State isn’t likely to blow many teams out and it’s a bit scary to bet against a team that has gone through so much change and that we haven’t seen in two weeks. However, I like the Penn State running game and their ability to stop the run and I like Penn State’s ferocious pass rush and think it’s likely they will cause major issues for Maryland’s offensive line. Maryland will probably get off to a decent start but I expect Penn State to grind them down and pull away for a comfortable cover of the -6.5 spread.

 

 

ATS Upset Pick

Indiana (+16.5) at Michigan State – 3:30 on ABC/ESPN2 

Full disclosure: I write for an IU football site called hoosierhuddle.com and I am a lifelong IU fan. That being said, I believe this pick is as close to without bias as I can get. That’s certainly no guarantee it will be correct but I believe this is the right call. It may seem like an odd pick but I’m taking the Hoosiers to cover (not to win but definitely to cover) this 16.5 point spread. I actually think taking the over at 63.5 is also a very strong bet for this game because I sense a shootout coming.

The Hoosiers are fresh off of an embarrassing 55-52 defeat at home against Rutgers. It was embarrassing because IU led by 25 points late in the 3^rd quarter and surrendered 28 unanswered points to throw away the game. Michigan State has a strong offense led by Connor Cook and the emergence of Aaron Burbridge and their defense is coming off of a strong performance against Michigan but Nate Sudfeld’s return to the starting quarterback position has the IU offense clicking once again. Sudfeld threw for the second most yards in school history last week against Rutgers and three different receivers went over 100 yards. Michigan State has been dinged by teams that can move the ball through the air so far this season (365 passing yards for Western Michigan, 309 yards for Oregon, 285 for Central Michigan) and the Hoosiers have a number of weapons and a quarterback that is continuing to get healthy and looked good last Saturday. In addition, star running back Jordan Howard might be back after an ankle injury has held him out for the past two and a half weeks. If he’s back, IU’s struggles on third down may be a thing of the past. His absence allowed for the emergence of freshman Mike Majette who looks like a potential playmaker. IU is coming off a heartbreaking loss and the Spartans are coming off of a historically thrilling win over in-state rival Michigan. Everything points to a bit of a hangover performance for Sparty. Michigan State should have plenty of success moving the ball on IU’s weak defense but I think the Hoosiers can stay within 17 points and cover this 16.5 point spread.

 

Trending Up – Ohio State Offense

While the Buckeyes offense hasn’t quite caught fire yet, I see some smoke and I want to be slightly ahead of the curve as opposed to behind it. The Buckeyes scored 49 against Maryland and then put up 38 against a very stout Penn State defense. They now head to Rutgers to take on a woeful Scarlet Knights D and then head home for a matchup against Minnesota, a team that just gave up more than 40 to Nebraska. More importantly, it appears that Urban Meyer is finally ready to give extended playing time to J.T. Barrett. Barrett has seen his role expand in the past couple of weeks and he has responded by producing every time he’s on the field. Barrett is a bonafide playmaker that is really making things happen with his legs. The offense appears to be at a faster tempo with him and the running game with him and Ezekiel Elliott has been impossible for opponents to stop thus far. Barrett now has 29 carries for an average of 7.9 yards per carries and Elliott is just 12 yards shy of 1000 yards and is averaging 6.7 yards per rush.

The Buckeyes are banged up at wide receiver but they appear to be adapting their attack to compensate for that. If they stick with a run-heavy dose of Barrett and Elliott, I really think Ohio State could be in for a couple of 50-point games in the next two weeks.

 

Trending Down – Northwestern’s Defense

Through five weeks, the Northwestern Wildcats were 5-0 and had just shutout Minnesota, 27-0. They were headed into a showdown against the Michigan Wolverines and appeared poised to challenge for the B1G West title. Things have changed a whole lot in two weeks. Michigan hammered the Cats, 38-0 and they returned home and got obliterated by West rival Iowa, 40-10. The Hawkeyes played most of the game without starting tailback Jordan Canzeri but Northwestern’s defense still surrendered 492 yards of total offense. The Wildcats offense is hurting this defense because they are unable to consistently stay on the field, causing the D to wear out. In addition, while the secondary is still very strong, the run defense has been gouged in two straight weeks for more than 200 yards.

The Cats now travel to Lincoln to take on Nebraska and then return home to play Saquon Barkley and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Just two weeks ago, people were thinking of Northwestern as a potential College Football Playoff contender. They are now considered to be fighting to make a respectable bowl game. As we know, things change very quickly in this sport.