Showcase State Preview: #15 Mississippi at #2 Alabama

For the third straight week, the showcase game of the college football weekend is a rematch that loomed large over the prior season’s championship chase. We started with Ohio State/Virginia Tech, which was a replay of OSU’s only 2014 loss. Next up was Oregon/Michigan State…a return engagement for Michigan State’s only 2014 loss that wasn’t to Ohio State. Now, it’s Ole Miss/Alabama…a huge SEC showdown that reminds us of the only game Alabama lost in 2014 that wasn’t to Ohio State.

Can Alabama get revenge and stay on track for a return engagement with the Buckeyes in this season’s Final Four? First, let’s quickly review what happened last season…

Ole Miss 23, Alabama 17

Total Yards: Alabama 397, Mississippi 327

Yards-Per-Play: Alabama 5.3, Mississippi 5.2

Rushing Yards: Alabama 168, Mississippi 76

Rush Percentage: Alabama 59%, Mississippi 51%

Passing Stats: Alabama 19-31-1-228, Mississippi 18-31-0-251

Third Downs: Alabama 38%, Mississippi 43%

Turnovers: Alabama 2, Mississippi 1

An odd game in many ways. Alabama’s offense gained almost 400 yards, yet only scored 10 points thanks to two turnovers and two missed field goals. One of the Tide’s touchdowns came on a fumble return. Alabama won the first half 14-3, looking very much like a National Championship team that wasn’t afraid of any challenge. Ole Miss won the second half 20-3. Alabama ran the lower risk attack with 59% rushes, yet lost the turnover battle.

Mississippi was very much in the championship discussion after this home upset. They would surge to an undefeated 7-0 record before key injuries and the general wear and tear of a brutal SEC West schedule took its toll. The slide culminated in an embarrassing 42-3 loss to TCU in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.

Here in mid-September of 2015, Ole Miss is once again fresh as a daisy…and thinking upset against a team that doesn’t scare them. Hugh Freeze’s aggressive offense has topped 70 points in a pair of virtual scrimmages against Tennessee Martin (76-3) and Fresno State (73-21). Certainly no rust or sluggishness there. Concerns about the SEC West being overrated that have arisen from shaky early outings by Auburn and Arkansas aren’t in play (yet) with this program. Another fast start for the Rebels.

 

 

How Will New QB’s Play?

What’s tricky for handicappers trying to predict the outcome of this rematch is that we have new starting quarterbacks for each team…and those new quarterbacks are facing GREAT defenses in a high pressure atmosphere.

• Chad Kelly of Ole Miss was the top junior college quarterback in the nation last season before transferring. He obviously wasn’t ruffled vs. Tennessee-Martin or Fresno State. This is a much more dangerous challenge. Is he ready to thrive in Tuscaloosa against a revenge-minded national power?

• Jake Coker of Alabama is a relatively inexperienced senior who’s going to be in a “game manager” role unless times get desperate. He certainly held his own in a potentially challenging season opener vs. Wisconsin with a passing line showing 15-21-0-213. Nice, safe, and productive. He was less accurate when opening things up last week against unheralded Middle Tennessee. His 15-26-1-214 passing line featured 11 incomplete passes and a pick against a relative non-entity.

Any pundit saying they definitely know what’s going to happen Saturday is bluffing. There’s just no way to be sure how either quarterback, let alone both, will perform against these defensive challenges.

Both teams have plenty of defensive starters back, and…

• Ole Miss ranked #1 in the nation in scoring defense last season, #13 in total defense

• Alabama ranked #6 in the nation in scoring defense last season, #12 in total defense

Early betting has shown respect for the Ole Miss offense. An opening line of Alabama -8 is down to -6.5. That crossed the key number of seven…which is a telling sign of respect from the sharpest market influences. The Over/Under has been bet up from around 50 to around 53.5. Interestingly, this is happening in a context where the public usually prefers TV home favorites (particularly with revenge)…and these two teams are aggressively marketed as defensive powers.

In other words, early informed betting has gone against the flow of “Alabama is seeking revenge in what’s expected to be a defensive slobberknocker.” Instead, it’s saying, “Ole Miss is going to score some points.” The Rebels’ projected point total has essentially risen from 21 to 23.5.

The case for Ole Miss (+6.5): Chad Kelly is the real deal, and he’s leading a team that is at its best early in a season before schedule attrition does its damage. He should be able to handle facing an Alabama defense that’s faded noticeably in recent seasons in terms of forcing turnovers (down to about 1.5 takeaways per game in ’13 and ’14 after around 2.0 from ’09 to ’12). The “September” versions of these programs are fairly close together in terms of true talent and productivity. Plus, Kelly is much more likely to make high impact plays than his “game manager” opposing quarterback. It could be a toss-up, and Ole Miss is capable of stealing a straight up win if they avoid turnovers.  

The case for Alabama (-6.5): Chad Kelly is about to be exposed as “not ready for prime time” because he just hasn’t seen the kind of defense Alabama brings to the table. Even if ‘Bama’s not forcing turnovers like they used to…they still have playmaker athletes who are capable of exploiting Kelly’s mistakes. Jake Coker will safely avoid miscues as the revenge-minded Tide exploit home field in a field position battle. This time, the full game will look like last year’s first half.

Enjoy the game! Back with you Sunday to run the final numbers and evaluate both team’s positioning in the SEC West and national races. Note that our weekly reviews of misleading final scores is now a “Premium” feature. Contact the site for details on how to upgrade if you’re not yet a Premium member.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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