I like the value here with the Chiefs as a 1-point dog against the Texans. These two teams are built very similar to one another. Both have strong defenses and an offense that is built around their running game and not turning the football over. In my opinion, the only real edge Houston has here, is that they are playing at home. I give Kansas City the advantage on both offense and defense. 

When it comes to quarterback play, I would take Alex Smith over Brian Hoyer. A lot of the problems for Smith last year, was the fact that he was working behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. He simply didn’t have the time to throw the ball down field. While it’s not going to be an elite offensive line by any means, I do think the Chiefs have upgraded that unit. 

Kansas City also went out and brought in a big time weapon at wide receiver in Jeremy Maclin, who knows Andy Reid’s offense and it looked like he and Smith were on the same page in preseason. The Chiefs also have one of the top tight ends in the league in Travis Kelce. Houston lost a big time threat in Andre Johnson, leaving them with only DeAndre Hopkins.

The most important thing here is the running game, Kansas City has one of the elite backs in the game in Jamaal Charles. Houston has a pretty good running back of their own in Arian Foster, but he’s out indefinitely with a groin injury. That means Alfred Blue will be the starter and that’s a problem. Blue averaged a mere 3.1 yards/carry last year on 169 attempts and caught just 15 passes. Foster not only is a better runner, but without him they lose a big part of their receiving game as well. 

Defensively the Chiefs finished last year 7th in total defense (330.5 ypg) and 2nd in scoring defense (17.6 ppg). Their biggest weakness was their ability to stop the run, but that was a direct result of Pro Bowl inside linebacker Derrick Johnson going down with a season-ending injury in Week 1 and no depth behind him. He’s back and so is the rest of the core on this side of the ball. The Chiefs also look like they hit big on 1st round rookie corner Marcus Peters and got a huge emotional boost with the return of All-Pro safety Eric Berry from cancer. 

Houston is considered to be a strong defensive team and they are, but their not as dominant as people think. They are a bit overrated in my opinion, due to the fact that they have the best defensive player in the game in J.J. Watt. As good as Watt was last year, near MVP level, the Texans finished a mere 16th in total defense (348.2 ypg). This is also a team that thrived on turnovers, as they finished +12 on the year. They aren’t going to get those turnovers against the Chiefs and I actually think Kansas City could win here big. 

The Chiefs finished the preseason 4-0. I know preseason doesn’t mean a ton, but the last two times they have done that, they went to the Super Bowl. I don’t think it’s out of the question. They went 9-7 last year with one of the worst receiving corps and offensive lines in the league and are 20-12 in their first two years under Reid. This is a more talented team than the one that went 11-5 in 2013. Take Kansas City +1!

If you want to win in the NFL then Jimmy Boyd of BoydsBets.com is your man.  He enters the 2015 season on a 92-57 (62%) run with his NFL sides dating back to the middle of the 2013 season.  Sign up for his free NFL picks and get winners delivered to your inbox each week.