@CWofCCH Week 2 Picks (2-1 YTD)

LSU at Mississippi State (+5 Full game, 1^st Half Side and ML)

I got a fever, and the only prescription… is more Cowbell.  When this game was released at BetOnline on Sunday, I was not surprised to see this game be a Pk.  I have LSU and Mississippi State even in my Power Ratings.  The only difference is the Home Field advantage in Starkville.  When the number steamed to LSU -3, I started to take notice of the line because this was now 6 points off where my number was including Home Field.  The number continues to rise, and I have yet to hit this game @CCHPicks.

Eventually there will be a Full Game, 1^st Half, and 1^st Half Moneyline side for this game on Cowbell.  LSU’s Week 1 game with McNeese State was cancelled, and this would have provided the opportunity for both Quarterbacks (Harris/Jennings) to get repetition.  I expect a slow start as the LSU offense tries to build an identity other than feeding Fournette.  MSU has no identity issues, going into Death Valley and winning this game last year.  I expect Dak Prescott to play his best for Dan Mullen who can’t let a home conference game end up in a loss.

Mississippi State has covered the 1^st Half spread the last two times in this series, even leading 17-3 in last years meeting.  I expect LSU to start slow by feeding Fournette and taking high percentage passes while rotating QB’s.  On with the Cowbell, but wait until Saturday morning to get the most out of this steamed line.

Notre Dame at Virginia +11.5

Wake up the echoes with that performance over the Longhorns.  The general public is always looking to back the Irish, and this year they have a team that can climb the ranks.  Virginia was in a full out Josh Rosen assault from kickoff in the Rose Bowl against UCLA.  UCLA opened up with the deep passes before eventually pounding the rock in the 2^nd half.  I actually look at this as a positive that Virginia lost the game by 18 with a 17.5 point spread and being a net -1 in the Turnover department.

When doing my Power Ratings adjustment Saturday night, it certainly raised an eyebrow that I had Notre Dame just south as a Touchdown favorite at Virginia.  When the line was released on a dead number, the only question was to whether this would steam to 13 or fall back to 10.  With Notre Dame pulling in an impressive 90% of the overall ticket count, this line continues to teeter on a dead number.

With my Power Ratings making this a 6 point game, Virginia 5-1 SU at home and 9-3 SU in Season Home openers, Notre Dame coming in a 2-5 ATS streak, and the massive amount of wagers on Notre Dame with no line movement I have to play Virginia.  I expect Mike London to cover the number while his squad takes Notre Dame to the wire.

Houston +13 at Louisville

Houston comes into a perfect situation to catch a team not looking.  Louisville did all of us a favor by covering the double digit spread on Auburn, but now they are looking at a short week with Clemson scheduled at home Thursday Night, Sept 17^th.  As an Arkansas Alum, I have seen Petrino throw out some vanilla playbook calls when he had a non-conference game with the likes of Nick Saban on deck. 

The personal Power Ratings make this a 10-point game and the opening line came at 12.5.  I fully expected this to come back to 10, but instead there has been 70% of tickets cut on Louisville while the spread has made its way as high as 14.  As of this writing, 13 is widely available and I don’t expect it to ever exceed 14.  It may even come back to 12.5.

This is Tom Herman’s (former Ohio State Offensive Coordinator) first year coaching, but these players have Houston on a 10-1-1 ATS record on the road, while Louisville sports a 1-4 ATS record over its last 5 at home.   I am positive Petrino has started putting in the Clemson playbook and plans to call a less dynamic offense in this showcase with Houston.  With only 5 days to for Louisville to prepare, take Houston to the Window.

Follow me on Twitter @CWofCCH and at CCHPicks.com.