Showcase Stat Preview: #7 Oregon at #5 Michigan State

For the second straight week, our showcase preview involves a rematch from a high profile game played last September. Once again, a highly regarded Big Ten team will be seeking revenge as a favorite. The big difference between Ohio State/Virginia Tech last week and Oregon/Michigan State this week is that one team has a gaping hole they’ll be trying to fill.

2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcos Mariota won’t be on the field for Oregon (having matriculated to the Tennessee Titans of the NFL). And the 360 yards he accounted for (318 passing, 42 rushing) will have to be made up somehow, some way by an inexperienced starting quarterback making his road debut at a very intimidating site.

A quick look at last year’s boxscore shows what kind of impact Mariota had in Oregon’s 46-27 come-from-behind victory.

Oregon 46, Michigan State 27

Total Yards: Michigan State 466, Oregon 491

Yards-Per-Play: Michigan State 5.6, Oregon 7.2

Rushing Yards: Michigan State 123, Oregon 173

Rush Percentage: Michigan State 43%, Oregon 59%

Passing Stats: Michigan State 29-47-2-343, Oregon 17-28-0-318

Third Downs: Michigan State 41%, Oregon 38%

Turnovers: Michigan State 2, Oregon 0

Oregon only won total yardage by 25…so 360 is a big deal! And, it has to be mentioned that Mariota’s maturity and sharpness allowed the Ducks to play mistake-free football. Oregon gained 491 yards…and 7.2 yards-per-play…without committing a single turnover. Vernon Adams may be a stud in waiting at quarterback. But, it’s very unlikely he’ll have anything resembling that level of production and sharpness.

 

2014 Boxscore Highlights

A few things jump out from that boxscore:

• Both teams made a lot of big plays…but struggled on third downs compared to what you’d expect from the raw stats. Michigan State was 7 of 17, while Oregon was 6 of 16. That’s TWENTY failed third down tries between them despite all the yardage volume. The game was a mix of big gainers and stalled drives (13 combined punts, 3 combined field goal attempts).

• Michigan State lost the turnover battle 2-0, but I should mention they also had a failed fourth down try. That’s basically a third turnover because possession changed hands. You can see how turnovers were the tie-breaker that explained how relatively even total yardage morphed into a one-sided final score.

• The question has to be asked…why the heck did Michigan State rush the ball only 43% of the time?! That’s not Michigan State football. All that passing did gain yardage. It also led to those two interceptions thrown by Connor Cook. As “wide-open” as Oregon is supposed to be…the Ducks ran the ball 59% of the time. Michigan State tried to catch the Ducks unprepared with this surprise approach, but shot themselves in the foot in the process.

Michigan State returns Cook and more experience than Oregon from last season. It would seem likely that Sparty can have another big stat day. Can they avoid turnovers this time? The big mystery is Vernon Adams of Oregon. There’s so little to go on in terms of his real big-game potential…that picking the straight up and poinstpread winner is basically a guess at how he’s going to perform.

The case for Oregon (+3.5): The Ducks run a system that allows any decent quarterback to move the ball effectively. Adams wouldn’t be the starter if he weren’t a decent quarterback. So, “the system” deserves respect plus the points regardless of who the quarterback is. This program has played enough “big event” football in recent seasons that no site is going to intimidate them. They deserve respect as the “superior” team from last season until proven otherwise.

The case for Michigan State (-3.5): In terms of intangibles…you have revenge for the Spartans…you have the “something to prove” angle for a team that’s tired of hearing how great Ohio State is…and you have what’s likely to be a rabid home crowd in a prime time spectacle. This isn’t going to be a “flat” spot for Sparty! With the tangibles…you have a quarterback who has a chance to throw for big numbers, while avoiding mistakes this time around because he’s more mature. And, you likely have a smash mouth running offense capable of running clock with a lead in the fourth quarter. If Adams of Oregon holds his own, MSU could still win and cover the spread given everything in play. If Adams makes too many mistakes, or gets knocked out of the game again because he hasn’t learned to protect himself from contact (an issue with a dirty hit from Eastern Washington last week), this could actually be a comfortable victory for the host.

Early betting is in line with these themes. Michigan State opened below a field goal, but has been bet all the way through the key number of three up to -3.5 at publication time. If you assume home field is worth three points…MSU with Cook is now seen as superior to Oregon with Adams. If you believe home field is worth four in this particular spot (prime time home game vs. inexperienced road quarterback), then it’s at least clear that the Ducks are no longer seen as the superior neutral field side by the marketplace.

Important keys to watch out of the gate:

• Is Adams making smart decisions?

• Is Michigan State seeking better rush/pass balance?

To the degree that the “unknown quantity” status of Adams looms so large over the decision-making process, it might behoove bettors to study his performance in the first half as a prelude to “read and react” choices in the second half. If you’re already convinced he’s going to struggle, considering MSU minus a field goal or better in the first half might be a smart way to add to positions you’ve already taken on Sparty. Heck, MSU led Mariota 24-18 at the half last year in Eugene!

Back with you after the final gun to review the key numbers. Next week’s preview will showcase #17 Ole Miss at #2 Alabama.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college football analytics for The Saturday Edge. He also writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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