You’ll seldom find me opening up shop and laying chalk.

Whether my actions stem from my fear of laying points with collegiate athletes or my unwillingness to side with the public, I periodically opt to dig up those crafty underdogs. As for last week, a few of these ‘dogs (BYU, Northwestern) came through for us, and I’m prepared to throw a batch of favorites on Upset Alert once more for Week 2.

 

Rutgers Scarlet Knights -2

Rutgers doesn’t open up as a large favorite (-2/-2.5) but could perhaps be the biggest trap of the weekend when they welcome the Washington State Cougars to High Point Solutions Stadium.

For Mike Leach’s Cougars, most fancied a Connor Holliday-less club to return as a giant question mark prior to season’s beginning. Once the clock struck zeroes versus Portland State on Saturday, they were absolutely justified with that claim.

The Vikings stormed into Wazzou as 30-point underdogs and stole the opener, 24-17, sending Leach back to the drawing board before he and his unit travel to Piscataway on Saturday. Here’s why I love the Cougars when they clash with Rutgers this weekend:

The Portland State-Washington State statistics were seemingly even in a variety of aspects. The Cougars and the pass-happy offense collected 307 yards through the air, quarterback Luke Falk notching respectable numbers at the helm. The 6”4’ sophomore completed 27 passes on 41 attempts for two scores and zero interceptions. The Vikings completed only 12 passes, but gashed the Wazzou defense for 233 yards on the ground (48 carries).

The third-down conversion rate for Washington State was brutal (4-16), but Leach ultimately stalemated those numbers by converting seven of eight fourth downs; the Vikes were 7-13 on third and fourth down combined.

Perhaps Washington State will dial up work this week in practice by emphasizing ball security, the Cougars fumbling the ball on four occasions; they’d regain three of those mishaps. Portland State was blemish-free in the turnover category.

For Rutgers, it’s a tough task deciphering how good the program is just yet. The Scarlet Knights dismantled Norfolk State, 63-13, with help from a 42-0 blanking in the second half. It was strictly a ‘pad your stats’ type of contest: both quarterbacks in Hayden Rettig (starter) and Chris Laviano surpassed the 100-yard mark passing, a trio of backs secured 10 or more carries, and eight different receivers hauled in passes.

In an earlier segment for SB Nation’s Maize N Brew, I caught onto a nice little trend concerning teams that were making their way into the second season of a new conference. In the Big Ten, both Rutgers and Maryland fit into this specific criterion, and here’s a loose structure of how teams have fared in year two compared to the first year in a new conference.

In the recent half decade, West Virginia, Nebraska, TCU, Colorado, Utah, Missouri, Pitt, Texas A&M and Syracuse have endured multiple years in a new conference, and only one of these programs (Missouri) has had a better record in its second year. While it may not apply to the Rutgers-Washington State contest specifically, it’s something to think about.

For Wazzou, Mike Leach has been a rebounding machine after a home loss. Check out how the Cougars’ head coach has fared on the road following a defeat in his own stadium since grabbing the reins in 2012. He’s both 6-3 against the spread and to the under on nine occasions, covering by an average of 7.9 points per contest.

I’m no mastermind when it comes to making the lines — that’s primarily the oddsmakers’ job — and I in turn do my best to seek those that lie too low, and those that are inflated. This isn’t the case of a line being inflated due to previous results, but one that may have the public salivating. You have a Rutgers team that blew the doors off of Norfolk State while Washington State was stunned by Portland State AT HOME, yet the Knights are skimpy home favorites to open up.

If this was the case of me just digging weird lines, it’s one thing to dub Rutgers a trap, but Leach has typically bounced back nice. He’s also looking to avenge last year’s 41-38 loss to the Scarlet Knights circa Week 1.

Pick: Washington State +2

 

Colorado Buffaloes -13

This could be a prime spot for Mark Whipple’s Minutemen to travel out west and steal a game as nearly two-touchdown underdogs on Saturday afternoon.

UMass nearly ousted Colorado early last season, as the Buffaloes needed a late score to pull out a 41-38 victory. It was perhaps the dawning of a new era for the MAC club that loves to spread you out when it’s on offense, and given the Minutemen fell by a field goal last year, the current 13-point spread certainly raises a few red flags.

Not only can UMass score with the majority of ‘em across the nation, much to the capability of quarterback Blake Frohnapfel and wide receiver Tajae Sharp, Colorado also falls into a rather strange spot on Saturday. The Buffs are coming off a heartbreaking loss at Hawaii and will be looking forward to the ever so heavyweight clash between bitter rival, Colorado State, in two weeks.

While the points may be a gracious trinket alone, the Minutemen upsetting Colorado would not be a surprise.

 

Arizona Wildcats -11.5

I’m personally biting my tongue on this one, but here goes nothing.

While the Wildcats opened as 33-point favorites versus a lowly Texas-San Antonio team last week, things nearly turned hectic late in the game, especially with All-American linebacker Scooby Wright going down. Ultimately, Rich Rod’s ‘Cats would secure a 42-32 victory, which was light years from pretty.

For the Wolfpack, it’ll be a tough transition breaking in a new quarterback, as the program finally cut ties with Cody Fajardo. Week 1’s contest versus UC Davis was more of an opportunity to break in Tyler Stewart, who threw only 20 passes (completed 13 of them for 163 yards).

Nevada nearly stunned the Wildcats last year on the road (losing 35-28) as 20-point ‘dogs, and to further advance on that subject, head coach Brian Polian is on a 5-0 run against the spread as a double-digit underdog.

I believe the Wolfpack are a live home dog here and should be considered in this match-up.