Jimmyshivers Week 1 ACC Football Picks
Welcome back, college football! After an eventful offseason in the both the world of college football and for me personally I’m happy to back for another exciting season of ACC action. For those of you who are new, this will be a weekly column where I will focus on the upcoming slate of games in the ACC and will share my wagering suggestions. My handicapping style is based on both a feel for the teams involved and a mathematical approach where I use key stats to develop my own power ratings. My wagering scale will range from 0.5 to 2 units and I will focus on spreads, totals, team totals and moneylines. I am a major proponent of line shopping and will use several different online sportsbooks to shop for the best available price (though I promise to use widely available lines for all posted plays here). If you are interested I share all my plays (including many non-ACC plays as well as investments in other sports) when I make them on my twitter handle, @Jimmy_Shivers.
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3 thoughts on “Jimmyshivers Week 1 ACC Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
This is a risky pick, Tulane got handled in last year game. Sirk played in last years game plus I see improvement on defense for Duke. Tulane lost some defense which is the teams strength.
I like Duke here, Tulane has to hard of a time scoring. Dukes defense is not great but there secondary is. And they will force Tulane to throw , and when they do they will not be successful. I have paid very close to Tulane for a couple years now and they just can’t score anything close to consistently, with that said I will be taking Duke.
Duke was a bettors favorite last year. Well, Duke isn’t “Duke” anymore. They won’t be a dominant offensive team. Senior QB Anthony Boone is gone. Enter inexperienced junior Thomas Sirk (who at 6’4 – worries me why he wasn’t able to beat out Anthony Boone to begin with). 4th round pick #1 WR Jamison Crowder is also gone (main punt returner last year … 12/clip + 2 ret tds) and won’t be replaced with current WR roster. #2 WR Isaac Blakeney was their red zone target last year (7 TDs) – he is gone. 1st round draft pick at guard Laken Tomlinson leaves a massive hole on the OL…as they switch from a passing attack to a ground game. Also Takoby Cofield is gone at left tackle (95 career starts total). That’s a lot of beef and game experience gone up front.
So that means – as they transition to a running offense (that won’t be as effective with less production at QB, RB, WR, and OL positions) they will need to be much more efficient in the running game than 2014. With the personnel losses this is impossible.
The defense should be similar to 2014 – good vs. pass, bad vs. run.
I think Tulane is going to be a much improved team this year. Tanner Lee was given baptism by fire as starting frosh in 2014 – he returns. Most skill position talent last season was freshmen and sophs. Return 4/5 starting OL…OL is fairly big 300+ across board.
Tulane doesn’t suffer massive personnel losses on defense.
Currently spread is 9.5. I am going to wait for this to jump to key # of 10.5 before taking Tulane. Just see a much improved offense for them a much worse offense for Duke this year. On the road in first game, I don’t thinking covering a 10 point spread is out of the question.