Below are some 2015 SEC Football betting nuggets I found while looking for against the spread and total trends to contribute to The Saturday Edge 2015 SEC Betting Prospectus.

 

 

TENNESSEE

Head coach Butch Jones/Tennessee team total is 8-2 UNDER on the road since ’13 (averaging 18.5 ppg on offense) 

When the Trend Applies: @ Florida, @ Alabama, @ Kentucky, @ Missouri]

Will it hold up? Good question. Tennessee remains a daunting SEC dark horse with the amount of skill returning on each side, especially QB Dobbs and RB Hurd on offense. If we’re siding with the trend, it’s certain the Volunteers could have their hands full with each club, aside from perhaps the Kentucky Wildcats. 

 

AUBURN

Head coach Gus Malzahn/Auburn Tigers is holding non-conference opponents to just 12.1 ppg in the regular season since ’13 (team total is 7-1 UNDER) 

When the Trend Applies: vs. Louisville, vs. SJSU, vs. Idaho

Will it hold up? I really enjoy this stat, primarily because Malzahn is a top-notch mentor that’s bullied on lower-tier competition. Louisville may lack a big time playmaker following the loss of WR Devante Parker, SJSU has slowly declined since the graduation of QB David Fales, and I don’t believe Idaho and QB Matt Linehan supply an ounce of danger for War Eagle’s defense.

 

LSU

Since taking over for the Tigers in 2005, head coach Les Miles/LSU is 7-0 OVER in openers vs. FBS opponents 

When the Trend Applies: @ Mississippi State (Week 2)

Will it hold up? Good question. Should be a fun game, especially with QB Dak Prescott at the helm for the Bulldogs, while LSU still hopes that QB Anthony Jennings can provide the capability under center as he was cleared to practice last week. 

 

GEORGIA

Dating back to ’13, head coach Mark Richt/UGA are 5-0 to the team total OVER on the road (avg 42.2 ppg) 

When the Trend Applies: @ Vanderbilt, @ Tennessee, @ Auburn, @ Georgia Tech

Will it hold up? The Dawgs possess perhaps the most dynamic back in the country with Nick Chubb, once he followed suit to Todd Gurley in the backfield. Tons of speed and athleticism for the Georgia offense, they won’t see many powerhouse defense that the SEC encompasses for this one.

 

MISSISSIPPI

Head coach Hugh Freeze/Ole Miss is 1-6 SU & ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2012 

When the Trend Applies: @ FLA, @ MEM, ARK, LSU

Will it hold up? Whether it’s the inability to win close games, Freeze has been unable to squeeze out those games as tight favorites. Although the games I’ve bookmarked may be due for a rain check, notice the blend of offensive firepower (ARK/MEM) with some stout defenses (LSU/ARK). Considering I’ve somewhat belittled the Rebels for 2015, this one could be on to save in the files for fall.

MISSISSIPPI STATE

Since 2009, head coach Dan Mullen/MSST opponents TT is 7-0 Under after Bulldogs give up 40+ the previous game (17.5 ppg).

When the Trend Applies: TBD

Will it hold up? Another super complex formula that may not apply at all, but if it does, you’ll know when Mullen and Co. step it up. They’ve done a great job at responding once gashed for hefty numbers, so another trend to highlight for the ‘Dogs is to nail the opponent team total under. 

 

MISSOURI

Head coach Gary Pinkel/Mizzou is 4-0 UNDER at home versus FBS non-conference opponents since moving to the SEC  

When the Trend Applies: vs. Uconn

Will it hold up? Missouri may be top-heavy on defense in 2015 which bodes well, and in case the Tigers plan on chalking up 50+ on their own, this once could fly well under the total, given UCONN’s offensive efficiency has seemingly gone for naught recently.

 

ALABAMA

Head coach Nick Saban/Alabama is a perfect 9-0 UNDER following a loss since taking over in 2007

When the trend applies: TBD

Perhaps not the most outstanding crew assembled by Saban, however, if the public believes they shouldn’t be contenders to snag the SEC, they’re lying to themselves. Sure, Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee and Georgia remain on the up and up, but don’t be surprised to see another 11-1, 10-2 clip in 2015.

 

SEC News and Notes

The SEC has bullied C-USA. The recent sample size has hummed volumes to the drastic beating as well.

A lone win with Western Kentucky shuffling over in-state foe UK in 2013–other than that, the mid-major conference has drawn a blank at 0-12 the previous two seasons.

That’s not the gaudy statistic however. It’s been nothing but shellackings throughout. 

Conference USA opponents are surrendering an average of 43.8 points while mustering a meager 13.3 since ’13. Not to mention that SEC team totals hit the ‘over’ 9 out of the 13 occurrences.

Week 1 will see its share of matchups with such intertwining as UTEP/ARK and USM/MSST but there’s an individual contest that’s jutting out to me, and that’s Vandy and Western Kentucky.

Night and day here as one of the nation’s most prolific offenses from 2014 in WKU, led by quarterback Brandon Doughty, steps toe-to-toe with a Commodore team that failed to produce an ounce of offense as the weeks progressed.

The Hilltoppers curently sit at +2. While the points itself appear as a treasure trove in Western Kentucky’s favor, the value seems to go for naught here with a measly 2.

I’m not solely basing my side here on the occurrences in the previous few years, but a Vandy team that fell victim to a Temple team on their home turf in 2014 opening as 17.5-point favorites over a team that attracted the likes of the public with their high-octane offense, the calculations seem to tell the tale.

As for the total, we’re seeing 65.5, which should fluctuate as the season nears. Surprising? About as much as you want it to be. WKU ranked 4th nationally in total offense while Vanderbilt resembled a peewee football team, with minimal athleticism at that.

After a thorough investigation to ultimately decide who they want to lead the offense onto the turf, QB Johnny McCrary settled in. He’s just okay in my opinion. Decent mobility, likes to roll out, and I’m wondering if the habitual matching with the SEC will ease up McCrary and the offense versus a C-USA defense, and one that struggled mightily in 2014.

Another team to keep an eye on will be Jim McElwain as he’s now the centerpiece for the Florida Gators. He handled the Colorado State Rams and nurtured the program to a top-notch team out west via the mid-majors.

A quarterback aficionado, he took former Rams quarterback Garrett Greyson and ultimately developed the NFLer into a confident, precise passer, which speaks volumes to the tenure he built wearing the green and gold. 

The stat? McElwain the previous two season at CSU notched a 11-2 team total OVER record when playing within friendly confines compared to just a 5-5-1 O/U clip when playing as visitors. Now, this doesn’t necessarily transition over to the Florida Gators, but perhaps he can spark his squad within The Swamp? We’ll get a look early and often.

This trend applies versus NMSU, ECU, Tennessee, Missouri, Vanderbilt, FAU, and Florida State.

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