Ole Miss & South Carolina Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same

OLE MISS OFFENSE

The Rebels offense slowed what could have been a very special 2014 season in Oxford – besides the 35-31 loss to Auburn where they did their part – they scored just 10 COMBINED points in their other 3 losses!

This could be a classic case of “addition by subtraction” by losing starting QB Bo Wallace, while 9 starters return to the offense. How well Jr. QB Chad Kelly, the likely starter, equates to SEC play will be absolutely critical to what could be a huge season for Ole Miss.

Kelly was kicked out of Clemson last season but played a year in Junior College & hits Oxford as the #1 JC QB this season.

All five OL return including a budding star in LT Laremy Tunsil, but injuries were a storyline of spring practice for the group, although they should be healthy once their September 5^th opener rolls around.

Laquon Treadwell comes back to lead a solid WR corps, while there is some talent in the backfield.

OLE MISS DEFENSE

The “Land Sharks” return 7 starters including star DT Robert Nkemdiche. They do lose a pair of All American’s from their secondary which could be key in their 4-2-5 scheme, but the coaching staff is confident in their replacements as the overall defense could have all upper classmen in the starting lineup.

A small step back from the high marks of last year is a reasonable expectation, but it will still be an imposing unit good enough to support a Rebels run to a possible SEC West championship.

BUY OR SELL

5 Dimes has set the Ole Miss season win total at 8.5 (-130 under). A 4-0 mark in OOC play is certainly expected meaning the Rebels would need to be at least 5-3 in SEC play, like last year’s team was, to go over 8.5 wins.

Their four road games in conference are Alabama, Florida, Auburn & Mississippi State – besides Miss State I expect the other three to challenge in their division, so nothing easy there.

Home games with LSU & Arkansas will also pose a challenge, in addition to not “sneaking” up on anyone this season.

I think the number is right on target and I am leaning under because of the uncertainty at QB and tough schedule; many would say they had a “great” season in 2014 & it only wound up being 9 wins, or a half win over this target.

Mississippi DE Robert Nkemdiche (Spruce Derden-USA TODAY Sports)

SOUTH CAROLINA OFFENSE

It all starts at QB & this year they are looking to replace Dylan Thompson, who did set multiple single season records for SC last year despite leaving a lot to be desired in the mind of myself & many Gamecock fans.

Mike Davis departed early leaving a hole at RB although the combination of Brandon Wilds & David Williams should do fine in replacing Davis’ production.

The OL is young as is the WR corps outside of 1^st team All SEC Pharoah Cooper, who will greatly assist the development of the next signal caller for Spurrier.

Overall this unit is young on the 2 deep despite approximately 4 Sr. starters – using 2015 as a season to show progress & gain experience they should be formidable come 2016.

SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE

This was a huge sore spot last season as the unit ranked 90+ nationally in every key area. Because the unit struggled so much last season Spurrier went back to his old successful days in Gainesville by hiring his former DC Jon Hoke, who has spent the last decade in the NFL as a DB coach.

Hoke has changed the base from a 4-2-5 to a 4-3 along with shifting multiple players between positions – he believes many defenders were used in the wrong scheme and at the wrong positions last year & this year’s unit should be markedly better.

Time will tell if that is the case but with a new scheme & lots of fresh young faces joining the 2-deep it’s likely to take at least a season before any significant improvement is visible on the field.

BUY OR SELL

The Gamecock season wn total is set at 7 (-120). For all the “doom & gloom” scenarios that were presented by the media on the Gamecocks 2014 season – I would no question argue things were not that bad.

Yes, they went 7-6, and irreparable damage was done to the perception of them following that opening night beat down at home vs. A&M – but a closer look at last season’s results shows things in a much different light besides their bookend losses: they lost by 1 point to eventual East champ Missouri, lost by 7 on the road to upstart Kentucky when the Wildcats were playing their best football in early October, lost by 7 points at Auburn, who was coming off their first loss of season, and lost by 3 points against Tennessee in OT.

Seven of their thirteen games were decided by one possession – a fine line between success & failure.

Expectation also plays a role in perception as many look at Tennessee last year & say they had a solid season – they had the same record as South Carolina and beat them by just 3 points in OT.

All that being said it’s hard to see the Cocks securing 8 wins this year with 3 Power 5 OOC games on slate along with road games at Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M & Tennessee.

The 2016 Gamecocks will be a solid club challenging for the East title, but this year I would lean under 7 wins feeling like the worst you could do is breakeven.

Patrick Donovan is a professional sports handicapper and was a panelist at the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsBoss and on his site THESPORTSBOSS.COM.