DUKE OFFENSE

The Blue Devils lose a ton of offensive firepower heading into the 2015 campaign which is of concern considering they were just 1-3 last season when scoring 20 points or less.

QB Anthony Boone has moved on & Head Coach David Cutcliffe will likely turn to Jr. Thomas Sirk to take over – although he lacks experience which could be an issue in this QB critical offense. 

He does have some nice playmakers on the outside and the backfield but the offensive line is a big question mark, like it seemingly is annually in Durham. 

Duke hopes strong special teams can supplement the offense with favorable field position & with successful field goals.

 

DUKE DEFENSE

The Blue Devils were surprisingly ranked 24^th last season in points allowed and will be asked to lead once again with all the questions on offense.

Rushing defense was an issue last year as they allowed a robust 193 yards per game & that will once again be a major concern as they replace 5 of the starting front 6.  One aspect that could be a positive for this new group is 5 Sr’s are likely to step into starting roles, so experience won’t be a huge issue; on the flip side all 5 of those guys were around last season and couldn’t manage to break into the starting lineup for a run defense that was well below average. 

The back 5 in the 4-2-5 scheme all return & is once again likely the strongest unit on the entire team (pass defense ranked 33^rd last year), and should climb higher in the rankings this year.

 

BUY OR SELL

5 Dimes has set the Duke season win total at 7 (-150 over).

Little surprised to see this # at 7 with juice on the over as Duke won three games last season by 7 or less, which slotted them at 9-3 on year – which included solid QB play. 

Their OOC schedule is not brutal & thus 3-1 is attainable & likely a MUST if they are to get over this 7 win total.  In cross-over action they do face two of the bottom three Atlantic division teams & get a favorable split against my four Coastal contenders getting two at home (GT & PITT) with two on the road (VT & rival UNC). 

All that being said, even with the favorable slate, I feel the BEST they will do is 7-5, with it being likely they post a .500 or worse record so I would certainly back the UNDER here with plus juice.

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MARYLAND OFFENSE

Oft-injured QB CJ Brown, the dynamic playmaker when he could stay on the field, departs and pure pocket passer Jr. Caleb Rowe takes over – which could be an upgrade for what Head Coach Randy Edsall likes to do offensively. Unfortunately, like his predecessor, Rowe has missed significant time with injuries & needs to find a way to stay on the field for the Terps to reach their potential in 2015. 

A big concern is a running game that ranked 108^th in yards (which included Brown’s rushing yardage that will be missed this year with Rowe under center) and will be replacing a lot up front, although most of the RB yardage & experience returns. 

The special teams will be without a full time coach: the field goal kicking game & return game is strong, but the punting game is questionable.

 

MARYLAND DEFENSE

This is an area the Terps struggled in their move up to the Big Ten as they ranked in the 90s nationally in most critical statistics. Because of those struggles there is a new Defensive Coordinator in Keith Dudzinski, who will shift the base defense from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  

Only 4 starters return which leads to concern at just about every spot besides a secondary that should be better than average.  The two variables Terps fans can hang their hats on & hope favorably impact the unit is the new scheme & experienced upper classmen stepping into the open starter roles.

 

BUY OR SELL?

Maryland’s season win total is set at 4.5 (-140 over).

Last year was a great season for Maryland, posting a 7-5/4-4 regular season mark in their first season in the Big Ten, including road wins at Penn State & Michigan.  That record included a pair of 3 points losses, but on the flip side they also had 4 wins by 7 points or less; so net the 7-5 mark was “reasonable.” 

This year’s schedule is tougher for certain: road games at West Virginia, Ohio State & Michigan State will be tough & almost certain losses; the combination of at Iowa, hosting Michigan & Wisconsin and facing Penn State in Baltimore will also be extremely challenging where going 2-2 would be considered a success (and 2-2 is probably unlikely). 

In addition to at WVU their OOC slate consists of three home games vs. Richmond, USF & Bowling Green – none of which are lock W’s although its reasonable to believe they can go 2-1 in that trio. 

This total is likely to come down to their final two games of the season: hosting Indiana then at Rutgers – win both & they almost certainly go over; lose both & they almost certainly go under; split & it’s a close call. 

I will lean UNDER 4.5 wins, especially with plus juice on that side.

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Patrick Donovan is a professional sports handicapper and was a panelist at the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsBoss and on his site THESPORTSBOSS.COM.

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