Arizona & NC State Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same?

ARIZONA OFFENSE

There is plenty of skill position talent & experience, an area Rich Rod teams are rarely short on. QB Anu Solomon returns along with RB Nick Wilson (who rushed for nearly 1,400 yards as a true last year) and 2 starting WR’s led by one of the best in the country Jr. Cayleb Jones (73/1,019 last year).

They do have some issues along the offensive line, as both starting tackles need to be replaced along with the key C position.

Last year the Wildcats were 25^th in the nation in yardage & 28^th in scoring, which is very efficient and numbers that should be achievable or possibly increase in 2015.

They scored 31 or more points in eight games last season posting an 8-0 mark in those games; when they scored 30 or less they only went 2-4 & the pair of wins was by 3 points on the road over UTSA & by 1 point at home over Washington – two subpar teams. Scoring is key for any Rich Rod team, and it’s no different in Tucson these days.

ARIZONA DEFENSE

They were an efficient unit last year checking in at 103^rd in nation as measured by yardage allowed but 78^th in points allowed.

Despite returning just 6 starters they should improve – but we all know Rich Rod rarely has a solid defense, and his style of offense certainly doesn’t help their performance.

LB Scooby Wright had a monster season in 2014 in which he earned the Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year award – and should lead this unit to at least marginal improvement in 2015 as there is some experience & plenty of athletes ready; how well those athletes translate into solid defenders is the unknown.

BUY OR SELL

5 Dimes sets the Arizona win total at 7 (-210 over).

The Pac 12 plays 9 conference games so naturally that makes for a tougher overall schedule in most situations. In OOC action they host UTSA & Northern Arizona (should be a pair of wins) and travel to Nevada, which is never an easy team or place to play (Arizona won at home last year by just a TD over the Wolfpack).

They do avoid Pac 12 favorite Oregon & have conference road games vs. Stanford, Colorado, Washington, USC & Arizona State.

The juice on the OVER is crazy at -210 but I feel at worst the Cats go 7-5 this year; upside could be as much as 10-2 so I am leaning firmly on the OVER.

Arizona LB Scooby Wright

NC STATE OFFENSE

QB Jacoby Brissett returns for his 2^nd & final year in Raleigh looking to build off a strong Jr. season where he accumulated over 3,000 total yards with a 26/5 passing ratio. This season the Pack will look for Brissett to play better against the better teams in the ACC, especially on the road.

The running game will be a strength with lots of experience returning on the OL & in the backfield, but special teams could be an issue as they are replacing all their key starters who had played four consecutive seasons.

NC STATE DEFENSE

Seven starters return including all 5 DB’s in their 4-2-5 scheme. That should lead to another strong season against the pass, but they struggled against the rush last year, which could be a recurring theme this season as they figure to start at least 5 underclassmen amongst their front 6.

BUY OR SELL

Their current season win total is set at 7.5 (-135 under).

A very light OCC schedule should see the Wolfpack 4-0 when they host Louisville on October 3^rd to open ACC play. They do get 2 of the 3 bottom Atlantic division teams on the road (WF & BC), but get no favors in cross-over play as I have four teams with a shot to win the Coastal & they face two of them – not getting any of the bottom 3 (MIA, DUKE, UVA).

All that being said they went 7-5/3-5 during the regular season last year & I cannot see them going under .500 again in conference play so will lean towards the over 7.5 wins with plus juice as they have an outside shot at winning their division if they can get a split at FSU/at VT and take care of business against lesser competition – something that often eludes State.

Patrick Donovan is a professional sports handicapper and was a panelist at the 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. You can follow him on Twitter @SportsBoss and on his site THESPORTSBOSS.COM.