Heading to the Golden Nugget with these GOY lines in my pocket
I’m heading to the Golden Nugget for College Football openers on June 26th. With travel plans locked in, I wanted to make sure I had a stance on every single College Football game for the year.
When Game of the Year numbers are released, its important to realize what the psyche of a team is in the middle of October/November. Are they off a road stretch? Did they just face their rivalry? Are they off a Bye Week?
When compiling the schedules for all the teams, I found some key situational spots that have applicable trends heavily favoring one team. This article will prepare you for those games.
The Golden Nugget (and 5Dimes) may not release numbers on all these games, but you will be prepared when lines are available. You can get a list of my complete Game of the Year plays in my CFB Preview HERE.
2015 GOLDEN NUGGET GOY PLAYS
Week 5, October 2nd: Memphis @ South Florida Under
Although this game is on a Friday, Memphis goes to Tampa on 8 days rest. What’s important is their schedule. They host Cincinnati on September 24th, which could be an AAC Championship game preview. Following the USF matchup is a Bye Week, giving the Tigers 15 days to prepare for Ole Miss. Memphis players always have a chip on their shoulder for the Ole Miss game, and even though there are 15 days for prep, there could be a bit of look ahead.
God Bless South Florida and their Under trends for this game. USF applies to 8-1 Under after a Bye Week (since 2011), 12-2 Under as a Home Dog (since 2011), and 13-3 Under in Conference play (since 2013). All 3 of those trends apply to this specific game. This same spot in 2013 (USF off a bye hosting Memphis) produced 33 points.
CW Play: Take the Under
Week 5, October 3rd: Kansas State +7 @ Oklahoma State
I use two sets of Power Ratings (ESPN FPI and my own). ESPN FPI puts this game at Kansas State +7.5, while my Power Ratings make this Kansas State -1. No matter the spread, you should know Bill Snyder has some of the most bankable trends in all of College Football.
Kansas State applies to an 8-1 ATS Streak off a Bye Week (since 2012) for this conference opener. Meanwhile, the Pokes will be coming back home off their Conference opener at Texas. The following week will be a Road trip to Morgantown. Also, Snyder’s Wildcats have covered 4 straight against the Cowboys.
CW Play: Kansas State +7 (anything +4 or better)
Week 5, October 3rd: Colorado State @ Utah State -8
My two Power Ratings mentioned above place this game at USU -8 and USU -14. What is important to know is that this will be Colorado State’s 3rd Straight Road game. This will be a tired and beat-up Rams team once their trip to Logan comes.
Meanwhile, Utah State is riding a 6-0 ATS streak after a Bye Week (since 2012). Taking the rested Aggies against a team on their 3rd straight road game is an automatic play.
CW Play: Utah State -8 (all the way up to -17 for me)
Week 7, October 17th: Missouri +10 @ Georgia
Missouri finds themselves in all kinds of great scheduling advantages this year, and this is one of them. Georgia is the host of this game, but they host Alabama 10/3 and go to rival Tennessee 10/10. Those are two physical and emotional games on Georgia’s schedule. Not to mention Georgia gets rival Florida after this Mizzou game.
Missouri will host Florida on 10/10, and then come to Athens. Missouri currently rides a very impressive 10-0 ATS (since 2013) and 16-4 ATS (since 2011) as an Away Team. I will take double digits with Missouri on the Road against a team in this situational spot.
CW Play: Missouri +10
Week 8, October 24th: Army @ Rice -13
I doubt we get a GOY line released on this one, and it probably will not have an available line until the week of the game, but that doesn’t stop me from seeing two trends that make this a must play.
Army is on a 1-19 ATS streak (since 2011) as a Road Team. That is not a misprint. I mostly dispute the “1” because the cover came at Yankee Stadium against UConn and not actually at Storrs. Rice comes in off a bye week after having their first 4 of 6 games on the road. Rice off a bye week is 7-0 ATS since 2012 and 12-2 ATS since 2007. This may be the biggest collision of Trends on the board the entire year.
CW Play: Rice -13 (up to -17)
Week 11, November 14th: Oklahoma @ Baylor -7
Here is a game you can guarantee will be on the board when Game of the Year lines are released. My two sets of ratings make this Baylor -8 and -6.5. My only concern about this line is that Oklahoma may come into this game undefeated if they survive trips to Tennessee and Kansas State. I would still not hesitate to take Baylor at a touchdown or less at home.
Oklahoma comes in off Iowa State and Kansas before coming to Waco. With TCU still remaining on the schedule, I don’t expect the Sooners to see this kind of Baylor speed until kickoff. Not only has Baylor covered 5 of the last 6 in this series, they are on a ridiculous 22-4 ATS run as a Home Favorite since 2011.
CW Play: Baylor -7
Week 12, November 21st: LSU @ Ole Miss +3
LSU plays at Alabama 11/7 and host Arkansas 11/14, needless to say they may have a few bumps and bruises traveling to Oxford. Anyone remember who ended the huge Ole Miss 2014 surge? That would be LSU in a heart breaking 10-7 loss.
Hugh Freeze and the Rebels will play up that angle, as Ole Miss off a bye week hosts LSU. Taking the Rebels off rest with points against LSU off Bama and Arkansas is a sound decision.
CW Play: Ole Miss +3
Week 12, November 21st: Michigan @ Penn State -2.5
No supporting trends or series streaks apply to this matchup, but this is an ideal spot to grab Penn State at home under a field goal. It is very possible that Penn State comes into this game with just one loss (at Ohio State 10/17).
After conference road travel to Rutgers on 11/14, Michigan gets another road trip to State College. While the Wolverines game will certainly be a White Out for Penn State, Michigan will already be thinking about the following weeks game with Ohio State on 11/28.
This is a classic back-to-back road travel with Overlook for Michigan, while Penn State plays their last home game of the year.
CW Play: Penn State -2.5
Week 12, November 28th: Missouri +11 @ Arkansas
As a Razorback alum this is a tough one to write, but Brandon Allen’s back will need to be in top notch shape in 2015 to cover this number. I have a bold prediction that Arkansas will have 7 wins at this point in the season. I also believe that a trip to the Cotton Bowl may already be sealed before this game kicks off. I don’t think Arkansas will be in the running for the SEC West, which means there will be little motivation.
Missouri, already mentioned above, carries on the 16-4 ATS (since 2011) as a Road team. I fully expect Missouri to be in the running for the SEC East with 1 or 2 division losses. This is the same script Missouri has followed the past couple of years. The motivation factor, road ATS trend, and chance at double digits make this a play.
CW Play: Missouri +11
Follow me on Twitter @CWofCCH and at CCHPicks.com.
- Previous Arizona & NC State Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same?
- Next Nebraska Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same?
2 thoughts on “Heading to the Golden Nugget with these GOY lines in my pocket”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Baylor -7 vs OU is probably going to be a good play. I don’t see OU being undefeated going into that game. I have a feeling with OU breaking in a new offense they lose to Tennessee early in the season, which “might” give the Vols less line value after that game and OU more line value going forward. It just depends on how bad of a loss we’re talking about. Although it didn’t happen last season, as a rule the Sooners usually get better as the season goes. Especially as the season starts to wind down. The key here is if Baylor is undefeated coming into the game. Two years ago Baylor was undefeated and OU was ranked #12 in the country going into Waco, yet the Sooners were still 16 point dogs. So it’s not out of the question we could get a similar line again if things fall right. But no matter the situation going in, Mike Stoops still hasn’t figured out Baylor’s offense. And I don’t have a lot of confidence this year will be any different. Not with the Sooners having less overall talent in the secondary than in previous years..
Nice, informative write up. Wish you huge success this season.