Washington Football 2015 – Better, worse or about the same?

Will the UW offense be better, worse, or about the same as last year? Why?

On paper, it looks like things are going to be worse. The offensive line loses three three-year starters (although one of them missed virtually all of the 2014 season with injuries) as well as another senior who started every game in 2014. The one returning mainstay is guard Dexter Charles. He’s a pretty good Pac 12 lineman, but missed most of this spring due to class conflicts.

Recruiting on the line wasn’t real good the last few years of the Steve Sarkisian regime, so the guys stepping in are both inexperienced as well as needing a significant amount of development. It’s easy to see the line taking a step backward from the 2014 unit, which was already a big offensive weakness.

In addition to the losses on the line, the Huskies will also be breaking in a new starting quarterback. Would-be junior Cyler Miles, last season’s starter, voluntarily left the team shortly before spring practices. It’s not clear why, as it wasn’t due to any sort of disciplinary action or grade-related, and Coach Petersen has said that Miles has a path back to the team should he want to, but it seems unlikely that he’ll be back at all. Miles’ stat line from 2014 wasn’t terrible, but he wasn’t very good, either.

Of the three candidates to take over, only junior Jeff Lindquist has attempted a college pass. True freshman Jake Browning enrolled early and participated this spring, but for as much potential as he has shown thus far, he’s really not ready to be the starter. Yet. August might be a different story, as neither Lindquist or redshirt freshman K.J. Carta-Samuels really distinguished himself this spring. It’s a battle that’ll last well into fall camp. All three of these guys have a higher upside than Miles did, so it’s not unlikely that this position is actually better in 2015.

The three primary ball carriers from 2014 are back, but none really separated himself from the others last year, and it may very well be a “by committee” approach again in 2015.

Dwayne Washington has a great combination of size and speed, but he’s not very refined as a runner. Lavon Coleman lacks quickness and speed, but has a good feel for the position. Deontae Cooper is a great feel-good story – after suffering ACL tears in his first three seasons at Washington, he’s had two good years of health, and has already been granted a 6^th and 7^th season by the NCAA. He’s the best all-around back on the roster, but doesn’t have the top gear he had prior to his string of injuries. If he continues to progress as much as he has the last two years, he could be a real weapon again.

The receivers were a fairly average group in 2014. Senior Jaydon Mickens is the leader of this group and one of the more vocal leaders on this team. Junior John Ross is one of the fastest players in college football, but hasn’t yet become a complete receiver. His development last year was slowed by an injury as well as spending the second half of the season at cornerback. Sophomores Dante Pettis and Brayden Lenius showed flashes last year as true freshmen, and if this group takes a step forward in 2015, it’ll likely be due to one or both of them stepping up.

The tight ends are a quiet strength of the offense, with Josh Perkins and Darrell Daniels presenting match up issues due to their speed. David Ajamu is a more traditional tight end, and had a fantastic spring.

Will the UW defense be better, worse, or about the same as last year? Why?

The losses are huge in the front seven, with 47 sacks graduating between DE Andrew Hudson (12.5), DT Evan Hudson (6.5), NT Danny Shelton (9) and BUCK linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha (19). Kikaha and Shelton were All-Americans in 2014.

Additionally, linebackers Shaq Thompson and John Timu are also gone, leaving only Travis Feeney as a returning starter. Given that amount of turnover, it’s tough to predict that the defense will be anything but worse in 2015.

On the line, Sophomore Elijah Qualls most likely steps in for Shelton at the nose. He played well as the backup last season, particularly as the year wore on. He isn’t “huge” for a nose tackle, so if either freshmen Greg Gaines or Vita Vea show they can handle the position, it’ll allow the coaches to move Qualls around some and take advantage of his athleticism on the edges.

Senior Taniela Tupou and Sophomore Will Dissly look to man the other spots on the line. Dissly is a classic under-the-radar Chris Petersen recruit who forced himself into the rotation as a true freshman, and had an outstanding spring by all accounts. Junior Joe Mathis moves from end to the Buck position. He’s shown a lot of potential his first two seasons as one of the first men off the bench.

Senior linebacker Travis Feeney is back as a most-of-the-time starter the last three seasons. He’s a fantastic athlete and very aggressive, but has a tendency to freelance or run himself out of plays. He missed the spring recovering from an injury. Converted “rush end” Corey Littleton moves to an outside linebacker spot, where he ran with the first team all spring. Another fantastic athlete, he’s going to have to prove that he can take on the coverage responsibilities of linebacker after spending most of his career predominantly as a pass rusher.

Senior Scott Lawyer stepped forward last season, and ran with the starters all spring, but it’s likely that either he or Littleton cedes his spot to Feeney. Or, to Sophomore Keishawn Bierria, who also sat out this spring, but filled in for Shaq Thompson when Thompson spent time at running back in the middle part of the season. Sophomore Azeem Victor will most likely man the middle.

The secondary was a hot mess at the beginning of the season due to injuries (starting cornerback Jermaine Kelly suffered a gruesome broken leg prior to game three), suspensions (All American candidate Marcus Peters missed a game and a half prior to being kicked off the team mid-season), and youth (true freshman Buda Baker started every game at one safety spot, true freshman Sidney Jones started 12 games at one corner, and true freshman Naijile Hale made two starts at the other corner).

By the end of the year, true freshmen were backing up true freshmen, and John Ross had moved from receiver to start the final four games at cornerback opposite Jones. While they weren’t “good” last season, by the end of the year they had made huge strides – particularly Jones and Baker, and that trial by fire will likely make them the strength of the defense this year.

Buying or Selling in 2015?

On paper, it’s a sell, and that’s even coming off a relatively disappointing season in 2015. A lot of Husky fans have been pointing to this for a couple of years now, given the big losses on the horizon due to graduation on both lines and projected early entrants to the NFL (Thompson and Peters).

There just isn’t a ton of talent in the program in the upper classes on the offensive line in particular, although Chris Petersen has done a very good job in his first two recruiting classes.

The good thing is, games aren’t played on paper, and there’s hope that the “Chris Petersen Effect” comes into play starting in 2015. While no rational Husky fan expects him to replicate his record at Boise State here at Washington, it’s almost universally held that he’s a bona fide “good” coach.

Most coaches at a new job at least pay lip service to “changing the culture” at his new school, but it became clear pretty early in the season that what Petersen said all offseason about it was the real deal – most fans didn’t really appreciate how different his way was in comparison to Steve Sarkisian. He wasn’t just tinkering with things, he was blowing it up to rebuild it the way he wanted. That comes with some risk in the short term, but if you’ve got the right guy, it’ll pay dividends down the road.

It might not manifest itself in 2015, but the improvements in the strength and conditioning program, the improved development of young talent, and the overall feel around the team could keep it at the “treading water” level this year, with an eye for 2016. If Petersen is the right coach, the process of 2015 is more important than the results assuming a minimum level of competence.

This feels like a 7 win team, but how they get there is the key.

Brad Johnson of UW Dawg Pound provided the information for our Washington Football 2015 Spring recap. For more UW football information, commentary and analysis, you can follow UW Dawg Pound on Twitter @UWSBN.