Georgia offense: better, worse or about the same? Why?

I think the easy money is on the offense being worse, right?  The Bulldogs were top 15 in the nation in scoring offense (9th), rushing offense (12th), 3rd down conversion (9th), and passer rating (9th), and was 30th in total offense. And this was with a one year starter at QB, as well as losing the top running back in the nation for over half the season due to one thing or another.  

Then there is the matter of losing offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, who had become one of the star OCs in the nation, both for his ability to coach up QBs and game planning against opponents.  Brian Schottenheimer brings a different approach to Georgia’s offense, but using the same base set. I’m not as bearish on him as some, but the jury is definitely out about his teaching ability, something Mike Bobo excelled at. Then there is his track record in the pros, which is….mixed.

However, Schottenheimer never had a running back that was a game changer like Nick Chubb during his time in the pros. The closest he came was Thomas Jones with the Jets in 2009, and even then, the Jets ran an Air Coryell offense. Jones carried the ball around 30% of the offensive plays the Jets ran that season. Last season, UGA ran the ball nearly 65% of the time, with Gurley/Chubb getting the vast majority of those carries. I don’t expect Chubb to touch the ball 65% of the time this season, but I do think Georgia will rush the ball more than 50% of the time. 

For my money, I think the Dawgs will be slightly worse statistically, but about the same with scoring efficiency. They have a very experienced offensive line, returning 4 of five starters. They have Nick Chubb, plus Keith Marshall and Sony Michel at running back. They have two tight ends that would be starting just about anywhere in the nation. They have three speedster receivers with sufficient playing experience in Mitchell, Scott-Wesley, and McKenzie. 

The wildcard is QB. The QB race is a fluid situation, with a player who has a precision cannon (Ramsey) and couple of guys that can throw it, but are better at improvising (Bauta, Park). If whichever QB ends up starting is marginally better at down field passing than Hutson Mason was last season, Georgia will be fine offensively.

 

Georgia defense: better worse or about the same? Why?

I think the defense improves in year 2 of the Pruitt era. Georgia showed flashes of defensive brilliance, holding SEC East Champ Missouri scoreless on the road and Auburn to one touchdown. The same defense also allowed the worst Florida offense in a generation to score 38 points and run for over 400 yards. 

The biggest question mark defensively is depth. Georgia has two of the most explosive players in the conference with Leonard Floyd and Reggie Carter in the front seven. The key to UGA’s run defense improving is how well freshman Jonathan Ledbetter and Trent Thompson fit into the line rotation. If they get plenty of snaps, that’s a good indication of how Georgia’s defense is progressing with up front depth. With that depth comes shutting down power running teams as games drag on.

The other concern I have is youth in the defensive backfield. Georgia will have to have some freshmen playing significant game minutes early. Fortunately, they had to have the same thing last year, which means they have some pretty experienced true sophomores to trot out.

It looks like Georgia’s defense has improved it’s depth situation. That combined with a full year of Pruitt’s coaching, is why I think the defense is going to be better.

 

You buying or selling this team in 2015? (How many games they winning this year? Playoffs?)

Let’s hold off on talking playoffs for now. Georgia needs to focus on the winnable games this season.  Using last season as an example, that means beating a mediocre South Carolina team and a terrible Florida team. Georgia was easily the most confounding team in the nation. The Dawgs were top ten in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency. Alabama, Oregon, and Ohio State were the only other teams to do that. None of those three had the kind of performances that Georgia had at South Carolina or in Jacksonville.

The other concern I have is the schedule. The upside is they have a tune up game and Vandy before they face South Carolina in Athens.  That starts a tough row against the Gamecocks, Alabama, Tennessee, and Missouri in four of the next five weeks. Thankfully, all but Tennessee are in Athens. They also face Auburn and Georgia Tech on the road. 

Overall, 9-3 feels about right. If things break right, Georgia could contend for a playoff spot. If things go horribly wrong injury or coaching wise, 7-5 or worse isn’t out of the question. 

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Tyler Dawgden, co-publisher of the Georgia Sports Blog provided the information for our Georgia Football 2015 Spring recap.  For more Georgia  football information, commentary and analysis, you can follow Tyler on Twitter @TylerDawgden. 

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