The first two rounds of the tournament saw a lot of surprises and wrecked a lot of brackets. However, I managed to get 12 of the 16 with my Final Four still in tact (Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, Michigan State), and we have a lot of intriguing match ups for this up and coming round. Now, with that said, there are a couple of teams that have impressed me and have increased their chances at a Final Four berth, and others who have had their weaknesses exposed and have fallen down the list. We’ll start with those teams that have impressed thus far:

#2 Gonzaga (South Region): You could tell from the way the played against the Hawkeyes that Mark Few let his team know that they hadn’t made a Sweet Sixteen since 2009. I initially wrote Gonzaga off as a team that would maybe make the Sweet Sixteen but would not be a serious title contender coming from a region with Duke and Iowa State. As we all know, Iowa State really dropped the ball in the first round, losing a nail-biter to UAB, and that really opened up the field for the Bulldogs, who now have a great chance to reach the Elite Eight as they face Bryce Alford and the UCLA Bruins. Kyle Wiltjer has been fun to watch, hitting shots from everywhere on the floor in the tournament, and with Kevin Pangos playing some solid point guard, their offense has not missed a beat. The one major question for Gonzaga has been their defense, but they showed some solid defensive ability against Iowa, limiting them to 67 points, most of which came in the second half. I believe this Gonzaga team will make it to the Elite Eight, further than I originally anticipated, and if they can continue knocking down shots they may even have a chance to knock out Duke and reach the Final Four.

#5 West Virginia (Midwest Region): Bob Huggins has his team playing some impressive basketball of late, even though both of the games they’ve won were closely contested. I thought their defensive intensity would fade a little at the end of their last game against Maryland, but they showed that they are in great shape and kept up the high pressure for the full 40 minutes, while also demonstrating the ability to score the basketball. Devin Williams has been playing very well for the Mountaineers, and even though Juwan Staten hasn’t been scoring as much as we usually expect, the rest of the team has picked up the slack, a tribute to Huggins’ coaching ability and the fact that all of these bench players have significant experience from the regular season. It is sometimes frustrating to watch them play due to the fouls and the lack of flow in their games, but there is no denying that they have the ability to rattle even the best ball handlers. I believe this team will make things very difficult for a Kentucky team that has not had to rely on it’s guards all that often this season, and may have a chance to pull the upset. Coming off of 4 days of rest, expect their pressure defense to be strong as ever, and while they don’t have the size to stop Karl Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein in the halfcourt, they might have the heart to pull this one out. If they do get past Kentucky, look out for this team.

Now for the teams that have not shown us their best:

#4 UNC (West Region): Although they have made it to yet another Sweet Sixteen, UNC has really not shown us anything that would lead us to believe that they can beat Wisconsin. Their defensive discipline has not been great, with both Brice Johnson and Isaiah Hicks fouling out of their last game, and that is a killer in the tournament because foul shooting can decide games. They don’t shoot the ball well from outside, with Marcus Paige being the only consistent threat from 3, but they do have a lot of size that usually gives them a rebounding advantage over most teams. However, the last 4 teams in the West all have size, and UNC cannot simply rely on second chance points to win games against teams like Wisconsin and Arizona. Roy Williams is a great coach, but this is not one of his typical UNC teams. They play hard enough, but they lack the skills and fundamentals to beat a team like Wisconsin who is so well coached. The Tarheels are an athletic bunch, but it takes a lot more than that to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament, and unless they figure out their defense in a hurry, I don’t see them advancing.

# Notre Dame (Midwest Region): I really like this Notre Dame team, and I fully expect them to advance. However, they have not been playing their brand of basketball recently, and that is scary. This is a team that only plays 7 or 8 guys, so they don’t have the kind of depth that is typical of the teams that can string a few wins in a row in a tournament. However, they do have Jerian Grant who is one of the most well-rounded players in the game today. Fueled by the loss of Coach Mike Brey’s mother, they were able to outlast a Butler team that did not quit, but in order to beat Wichita State they are going to need to play a lot better. Zach Auguste has been in foul trouble seemingly all tournament, and he needs to work on his discipline to avoid picking up silly over the back calls or hand checks on the defensive end. They need him in the game to run their offense effectively. Additionally, the play of Demetrius Jackson will be a huge determinant of how long the Fighting Irish can last, because he is one of the most dynamic players to watch when he is on his game. I expect Mike Brey to get his team ready for this one, but they will need to execute better if they are going to have any chance at the Final Four.