2015 March Madness: Thursday Picks

I will have another thread up for Friday, but I’ll keep it short and sweet and here are four plays for Thursday’s opening round games I like. Good luck!

Northeastern +11.5 vs Notre Dame

There are a few different reasons why I like Northeastern in this game, but from an intangible standpoint, I think it sets up quite well for the Huskies. We get Notre Dame coming into the the early tip against a Northeastern team that will have last played 10 days prior, while the Irish have just come off playing playing three games in less than 72 hours, two of which being huge wins in back-to-back days against Duke and UNC. Northeastern comes into the game winners of 9 of their last 12 and playing with some confidence. The Huskies obviously haven’t played any team close to as talented as the Irish in a few months, but looking back at their non-conference performance I see a lot to be encouraged with here. The Huskies won games over Florida State, Richmond, and Manhattan back earlier in the year, and played St. Mary’s close. Again, none of these teams are close to ND’s level, but it shows that Northeastern is capable in stepping up in class. Another reason I like the Huskies is that Notre Dame isn’t a team that is geared to blow you away with their athleticism the same way a team like Kentucky, Kansas, or North Carolina is. If the Huskies can prevent Notre Dame from being red hot from three, and execute their half-court offense efficiently enough to get good looks consistently (they rank 12th in the country in Offensive FG %) I like them to stay within the number against the Irish.

Kentucky -34 vs Hampton

It feels absolutely ridiculous to say there is line value on a team laying 34 points, but if Kentucky doesn’t win this game by 40 points I would be shocked. Hampton has been running on fumes the last few weeks, and they have been sizable dogs in three of their last four games, and nothing makes me think they will be able to keep Kentucky from putting up 80+ points and them being able to score 40. Even if Kentucky builds a big lead, I think Calipari will leave Ulis in to the run the point to get him some valuable minutes knowing he will be needed down the stretch run of the tournament. Kentucky should be able to live on the boards and if they don’t get complacent with jump shots the Cats will win this game by 40 with ease.

UAB +13.5 vs Iowa State

Stop me if this looks familiar, but I am going to back UAB again. UAB’s progress this season has been remarkable this season, and I think you’d be hard pressed to find a team that has made such great strides from start to finish. But that is to be expected a bit with the Blazers given their youth. I’ve tweeted and wrote about it before, but in my opinion UAB’s ceiling of their best basketball is very impressive. They have athletes all over the court and rebound pretty well for a mid-major team. Looking back when they played big programs, they would have covered the 13.5 against UCLA, Florida, and LSU. Iowa State just went on an incredible run winning the Big 12 tournament in drastic comeback fashion, but one has to wonder what kind of toll that took on them. One of the reasons I like UAB here is that I think from an athletic standpoint they aren’t at much of a disadvantage against the Cyclones. Now if Iowa State jumps out to a big lead, UAB could get frustrated and force themselves into bad shots, so you’ll likely know within 10 minutes if the Blazers will get the cover or not, but when I saw the matchup here I made the line a couple points shorter and I’m willing to back the Blazers here at the current price.

VCU +4 vs Ohio State

In the A-10 tournament I think we saw the best version of what VCU can be this season. I was very impressed with what VCU did this past weekend, and I expect this game to come down to the wire and I will gladly take the points in this scenario. I haven’t been high on Ohio State this season and I just don’t think I can consider laying a few possessions in a game like this against a team playing their best basketball of the season. VCU has shown that they are comfortable playing different teams with different styles of play and have had success winning. But I think the Buckeyes play exactly into a style of play that VCU is comfortable with. D’Angelo Russell is an unbelievable talent, but asking a true freshman point guard to orchestrate an offense going against the Havoc defense is a lot to ask for in my opinion. The one time this year that OSU faced a similar defensive pressure against Louisville, the Buckeyes looked hopeless, with Russell and Shannon Scott combining for 9 turnovers and the team with 14 as a whole. I like the Rams to get the win as the small dog, but nonetheless I will take points in a game that I expect to come down to the final possessions.

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