Record YTD: 10-11

We had a few great games yesterday, none better than the wild Iowa State cover as part of another amazing second half comeback. I have a couple of games on tap today to keep it rolling:

Purdue (-6) vs. Penn State

I listed Purdue as my other team to trust in the postseason, mostly due to their consistently dominant inside play from AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas. It will be very difficult for teams to match up with the two 7-footers, a fact proven during Big Ten play where Purdue went 12-6, good enough for 5th in the conference. They’ve won 6 of their last 8 (9 of their last 12), in conference play, though they were taken to overtime by this Penn State team on the back of an incredible performance by star scorer DJ Newbill. They have a couple of guys who can shoot the 3 around 40%, a strong inside presence, and a strong senior leader in Jon Octeus, and their consistency throughout conference play is why I labeled them as a team to trust this postseason. Although Penn State can certainly score the ball through Newbill, Purdue’s solid defense will limit him to well below the 37 points he dropped the last time these teams met and will allow Purdue to easily cover the spread as they move into the conference semifinals.

Baylor (+1) @ Kansas

Although leading scorer and rebounder Perry Ellis is slated to make his return to the Jayhawks today, I just have yet to be sold on Bill Self’s team. They manage to find ways to win games, but we have not seen the dominance of a typical Kansas team throughout the course of the regular season. They barely squeaked by against TCU, and will still be without big man Cliff Alexander, and that will play a big role in what I believe to be an upset tonight in the Big 12 tournament. Baylor comes in off an impressive win vs. West Virginia where they got to the free throw line 34 times, the main reason that they were able to secure a late victory. Rico Gathers causes nightmares for opposing post players due to his relentless energy and strength, Kenny Chery can be trusted to handle the ball against pressure and can knock them down at the line at the end of the game, and Taurean Prince is the best bench player in the conference and possibly in the NCAA. Kansas lost a lot of their inside presence with the suspension of Alexander for potential NCAA violations, and I think Baylor’s front line will get Landen Lucas and Jamari Traylor in foul trouble and make it very difficult for Perry Ellis to get going in his return. I expect a close game but I think that Baylor will be able to pull it out at the end as they did against West Virginia.

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