College Basketball Value Betting Week of 3/2/15

Its hardly ever a good idea to blindly fade or bet for certain teams but there is opportunity to gain value betting against public perception. In last weeks article on who to buy and sell the teams suggested to buy went 2-2 while only one of the teams on the sell list underperformed. Iowa State was 0-2 last week ATS on the sell list but both Wichita State and Villanova were each a perfect 2-0. I would keep an eye out for inflated Villanova lines this upcoming week. Here are this weeks teams to buy low and sell high.

Sell

#2 Virginia– Even though they are ranked number two in the nation the Cavilers were only 3-6 ATS for the month of February.  You might expect that to make them buying material but I disagree. They are already a lock for the tournament and are gearing their focus to their conference championships. Their is little at state for their final two games besides their ranking. On top of that they play their final two games on the road at Syracuse and Louisville. I expect them to give points in both games and for a team that struggles to cover I would continue to bet against them if the number is right.

#19 Baylor – Coming off four straight wins going 3-1 ATS in that span is the perfect time to dump the Bears. This is a team that has put it together of late and built a strong resume for the tournament. I see a letdown looming at Texas before giving away a lot of points to a Texas Tech team that struggles on the road. They should have a battle on their hands at Texas in a game that means much more to Texas before their last game of the regular season with Texas Tech, one that they could easily overlook before conference play.

#23 Butler– Butler is back in the ranking after impressive wins vs Marquette and DePaul. Impressive in the since that Butler dominated both games but that was against subpar competition. This week they will be tested by two strong opponents in Georgetown and Providence. Their ranking is unwarranted and I look for this Butler team to be exposed in their final two games vs teams poised to make a statement for the tournament committee.

Buy

San Diego State– Coming off their first home loss in 27 tries I look for a big bounce back week from SDSU. They finally got back in the rankings before a huge loss to Boise State. Steve Fisher will have his team focused as they finish out their regular season at rival UNLV and at home vs Nevada. Both games are very winnable and I look for tighter odds at UNLV with the Aztecs coming off a loss vs a rival. Then their season finale at home with a Nevada team that struggles on the road.

VCU– Losers of their last 2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last three contests now is the time to buy VCU. They have been on the wrong end of some games where the refs called touchy fouls. Not good for a tam that lives pressuring the opposition. I expect them to fall out of the rankings this week but come out with the intensity to finish the season. Shaka Smart will have his team ready to go for their final two games at Davidson then at home vs George Mason. VCU is way more athletic then their next two opponents and I expect strong performances to enhance their resume and earn a top 25 ranking by the weeks end.

Louisville– Even though their ranked I still would buy the Cardinals right now. The loss of Chris Jones has hurt them but I look for Pitino to have a game plan ready to adjust to Jones’ absence. The public perception is this team is done but they have a solid guard rotation to replace Jones’ scoring and they finish with their final two games at home. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against some subpar competition. Now they get two stronger teams in Notre Dame and Virginia at their place. Look for the Cardinals to get points in both of those games in which they could easily win outright.

Those are my teams to buy and sell for this week. As always its never a good idea to blindly bet for or against teams so feel free to hit me up on twitter @ccon8181 to see if there is value going with or against these teams when the lines are released. Lets have a great week!

CCon the Sharp Contrarian

@ccon8181