How to Handicap College Basketball Q & A.

I recently sent out some emails asking various college basketball handicappers a few questions about some of the main aspects they like to look for when selecting games to wager on. As usual, I had to sift through a lot of garbage to find a few potential nuggets.

Here are two responses that I thought were pretty good and should at the very least give everyone something to think about as we approach March Madness.

This first set of responses is from Chris aka CCON The Sharp Contrarian @ccon8181 and from Collin @TN_Ticket.

What is the most valuable stat(s) you use when handicapping college hoops? 

CCON – I base my handicapping off of numbers, line movement, public perception, and value. When betting on college hoops my most valuable stat is a teams home-away consistency. Lots of teams have high FT,FG, and overall point discrepancies between playing at home and being on the road. Take a team like Maryland. They are solid at home but tend to struggle on the road. So after two solid home wins, gaining them national attention and a ranking they travel for an away game, public perception is they are a great team and in this spot I would take their opponent at home if the number is right. On that same wave of thinking some teams have very little difference in stats home vs away. These teams I like to bet with on the road in the right spots.

Collin – I’m relatively new at handicapping but I have found a few stats that are very valuable to me. I look at the last 5 games played to see any trend. I also look at home and away record. I do not use a system like many other handicappers do, I use my knowledge of the teams.

What is your favorite situational spot, angle or trend? 

CCON – My favorite situational angle is taking a unranked mid-level team with decent home stats getting points vs a ranked opponent in the month of February. These mid level teams know they need key wins to build their resume for the tournament. They bring their best effort to get a resume building win against a team that most likely cemented a spot in the
tournament and just trying to stay consistent. Usually good value in these spots.

Collin – I love to take road underdogs. It depends on the team and situation but i find there is a lot of value there. I tend to be very selective in my picks. I would rather get my picks right at a very high rate compared to putting picks out everyday. What works for me is I follow the Tennessee Volunteers very closely and I have a deep knowledge of the team. I know what their strengths/weaknesses are and how other teams strengths/weaknesses compare.

What is your best piece of CBB handicapping advice (example(s): beat the closing line, team/conference knowledge, modeling, coaching, player match-ups, etc.) ?

CCON – Don’t put to much emphasis on rankings. Especially early in the year. Opposite of college football, every game doesn’t have the same importance. You can lose multiple games throughout the season and still be in great shape. For instance Louisville lost 3 games in a row during conference play and had a three way tie in the conference and still ended up #2 seed for the tournament. So I recommend buying low and selling high. If a quality team goes through a rough patch I would start to back them at that point and look to take the opponents of teams ranked especially early in the season.

Also injury reports are key. In football if you have an injury to a WR or OL it is a dent but you have 10 others to pick up the slack plus a backup. In basketball, especially college, some programs only use 6-7 man rotations so losing a starter is huge. You also have to pay attention because if its a big man and he’s their shot blocker odds are your not going to have another one even half as capable to step in. The line might shift 1-3 points biased on the injury but its hard to estimate the effect this might have on the team.

Collin – My whole philosophy of handicapping is knowing a team and conference well and focusing on that. In my case I know the Tennessee Volunteers and the SEC very well. Watch as much of one conference as you can and then you will be able to find the great lines. Vegas makes mistakes and you gotta know when to take advantage!

I hope everyone finds this information useful. Please feel free to add any additional thoughts or college basketball betting nuggets in the comment section below.

I would like to thank Chris and Collin for taking the time to provide us with their thoughts and some college basketball handicapping ideas. Please give them a follow on Twitter.

Good luck!