College Hoops – January 24, 2015

YTD Record: 0-0

Texas (-4) vs. Kansas 

As we mentioned on our Game Filters- Part II piece, we really love to bet on Texas. Coming off of two very impressive conference wins (WVU by 27, @ TCU by 18), Texas is going to be excited to take home court against a Kansas team that has yet to show the ability to consistently win the “Big Game.” Featuring losses by 32 at home against Kentucky, and a startling blowout on the road at Temple, we simply don’t think this Kansas team represents Bill Self’s teams of the past. Texas’s tough interior defense will make life difficult for forwards Perry Ellis and Cliff Alexander, and expect Texas’s stellar front court to get the Kansas big men in foul trouble early in this game. Although we have to give Kansas a slight edge in terms of guard play, the three-headed monster of Myles Turner, Cam Ridley, and Johnathan Holmes will simply be too much in this one. Easy cover for Texas.

Georgetown (-1.5) @ Marquette 

Last time out, the Hoyas simply DOMINATED 4-seeded Villanova in what ended up as a signature, 20-point win for John Thompson III’s team. Marquette has played well, and home court advantage is important in the Big East, but they simply have no answer for Josh Smith on the backboards and in the low post. For Marquette, Matt Carlino has been on fire in the last 3 outings, including a game winning 3-pointer to beat Creighton, but the guards for Georgetown are simply too deep and too consistent for Marquette to handle. Look for Paul White to be the X-Factor in this one, a very talented forward coming off the bench for Georgetown who can really spread the floor and give Josh Smith the space he needs to dominate the front court. As most Big East games are, this will be a close one, but Georgetown should have no problem pulling it one out by 5 or 6 points.

Michigan State (-2.5) @ Nebraska 

Michigan State has been very inconsistent this season, a characteristic that is very uncommon in Tom Izzo’s teams. Wooden candidate Branden Dawson hasn’t performed up to his full potential, but this game is one in which he can really break out and dominate. Although Nebraska has one of the best scoring duos in the country in Terran Petteway and Shavon Shields, that is about as deep as they go in terms of scoring. Against a defensive team like Michigan State, that will simply not be enough to win, especially with Petteway’s tendency to get in foul trouble. Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine have played well this season for the Spartans, both shooting around 40% from 3 point range, and with Branden Dawson attracting so much attention inside, the 3 point shot should be a big advantage for Michigan State. The spread is only so low due to Michigan State’s inconsistency this year, but this should be a very easy win for them against a Nebraska team that lacks depth and rebounding (207^th in the country), two of the attributes we believe a team needs to be successful.

Oklahoma (+2) @ Baylor 

Oklahoma is a very interesting team this year. Buddy Hield is one of the best overall shooters in the country, hovering in the vicinity of the 50-40-90 percentages that NBA shooters strive for. With 4 players hanging around 10 PPG, they certainly have the depth that we look for in college teams, and they are also one of the better rebounding teams in the country. Baylor recently struggled against Huston-Tillotson, a small, NAIA school that managed to hold Baylor’s lead to 1 point at the half. Although Baylor does provide matchup problems in the post due to the unbelievable rebounding of Rico Gathers, they simply don’t score enough to hang with a team like Oklahoma who can consistently score 70-80 points a night. We expect Gathers to get his double double, but Oklahoma is a much deeper team and will outlast the Bears in this one, pulling off a nice road win in the Big 12.

Brandon Fine handicaps college basketball and is a writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Brandon on Twitter throughout the college basketball season @vegaslinebeater and you can contact him at vegaslinebeater@gmail.com.