Previewing the College Football Final Four

College football’s long awaited National Championship tournament is imminent! Oregon will take on Florida State Thursday in the Rose Bowl, followed immediately by Alabama vs. Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. The two winners will meet Monday night January 12 in the Cowboys cathedral in Texas to determine a champion.

Here’s a quick look at what may be linchpin statistical factors in both games…

ROSE BOWL

Market-Projected Score: Oregon 40.5, Florida State 31.5 (Oregon -9, total of 72)

That’s Because: Both defenses look to be outmatched by the opposing offenses, with FSU’s defense really outmatched by the high octane attack of Oregon.

The Seminoles allowed 35 points and 465 yards to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship game. Georgia Tech can’t pass! Now they face the balanced and potent Oregon offense that averaged 10.0 yards-per-pass (#1 in the nation), and 5.5 yards-per-carry (#13). FSU wasn’t as bad all year on defense as they looked vs. Georgia Tech. But, they haven’t played to their level of athleticism all season. And, it’s likely to prove important that FSU only managed 17 sacks this season (#107 nationally out of 128 teams measured by www.cfbstats.com) against a schedule that was passing a lot from behind. How are they going to chase down Oregon quarterback (and Heisman Trophy winner) Marcus Mariota if they couldn’t sack mediocre ACC quarterbacks?

Also in play, Oregon may benefit from “cheap” points set up by Florida State’s turnover-prone offense. FSU suffered 27 giveaways this season, third worst of all bowl teams. Oregon was razor sharp in execution this season. We’re talking about a Ducks offense that had a 40/2 touchdown/interception ratio!

So, if you were wondering why this pointspread was so much higher than many of the other bowl games you’ve been watching. It’s because Oregon is seen as the much more explosive team…and the much less mistake-prone team. The betting markets don’t have Florida State as a top 10 squad even though FSU earned a #3 seed in the championship brackets.

Is this going to be an automatic blowout? Nothing’s ever automatic in college football. Florida State will have to play clean, and bring 60 minutes of defensive intensity if they want to spring an upset. Smart, physical teams can disrupt Oregon, as Stanford has done in recent seasons. Perhaps FSU’s first game as an underdog will put a chip on their shoulder that’s been missing through a season as comfortable favorites. A telling indictment of this year’s lack of intensity for FSU that a bowl opponent is supposed to score 40 against them.

SUGAR BOWL

Market-Projected Score: Alabama 33.5, Ohio State 24.5 (Alabama -9, total of 58)

That’s Because: Alabama is rated as the best team in the nation, and is playing at a “home away from home” against a visitor from the Midwest that has to start a relatively inexperienced backup QB. The SEC has crushed the Midwest in recent championship scenarios even when their opponents had star quarterbacks!

January 2007: Florida 41, Ohio State 14 (Florida was the underdog)

January 2008: LSU 38, Ohio State 24

January 2012: Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14

The Over/Under is much lower here because we’re likely to have a slower pace. And, you just can’t assume that an inexperienced quarterback is going to light up the scoreboard in the SuperDome against a team as good as Alabama…even if Cardale Jones did light up the scoreboard against Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game. He’s the great unknown here. If his Cinderella story continues, this Alabama team is more vulnerable than past entries. If Jones turns into a pumpkin, Alabama probably runs away and hides.

Why is Alabama more vulnerable? This defense is surprisingly soft when it comes to forcing turnovers. This hasn’t been well-publicized this season. Of the 16 teams playing in the “great 8” bowl games New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, Alabama ranks second-to-last with only 18 takeaways. You know who’s last? Wisconsin with 17! If Jones can execute when not being pressured…as he did so emphatically against Wisconsin (12/17/257 passing with 3 TD’s)…Ohio State has a chance to hang close.

Statwise, these teams were actually pretty comparable this season outside of forcing turnovers (OSU had 29 takeaways compared to 18 for ‘Bama). Handicappers will have to determine:

• How much dominating the Southeast matters compared to dominating the Midwest

• How much a “home away from home” field advantage matters to Alabama in New Orleans

• How likely it is that Cardale Jones can have another productive game under the spotlight

Odd that the selection committee created two semifinal matchups that are projected to be more one-sided than most of the preliminary bowls had been. Hopefully college football fanatics aren’t due for a letdown with a pair of blowouts.  

Some misleading scores from this past weekend’s bowls… 

• Cincinnati outgained Virginia Tech by a whopping 489-334 in its 33-17 loss in the Military Bowl. The Bearcats won yards-per-play 7.0 to 4.8, but lost the turnover category 3-1. Virginia Tech had a fumble return touchdown on the way to its misleadingly one-sided victory.

• Miami outgained South Carolina 422-344 in its 24-21 loss in the Independence Bowl. The Hurricanes owned the point of attack with a 186-60 edge on the ground, while winning yards-per-play 5.8 to 5.4. A 2-0 turnover deficit prevented them from playing to their favored status.

Back next week to review key stats from the semifinals as a way to preview the championship game matching Thursday’s winners.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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