YTD:  26-13 +10.79 units

 

Last time out we fell victim to a Georgia Tech backdoor to prevent the 2-0 sweep in the ACC title game.  Overall there is little to complain about as our plays were very good this year and we managed to win at a 66% clip on the season.,   It would be wonderful to replicate this success for bowl season but as always I would be very happy to walk away with more units won than lost.  I hope everyone has enjoyed their holidays but it is time to focus on one of the hidden perks of the end of the year: meaningless bowl games!

 

ACC Bowl Plays:

 

Georgia Tech Team Total Over 27.5 1.5U

I had a lengthy write-up that just got erased, but the jist is that GT has hit this number in 11 of 13 games this season and is catching MSU is a pretty flat spot of their deflating Egg Bowl loss that likely kept them out of the playoff.  Georgia Tech hasn’t historically been a prolific bowl team under Paul Johnson but I’m a believer in Justin Thomas and I see the Jackets being able to move the ball against a defense that ranked #87 in allowing big plays and only saw run plays 45% of the time (126th nationally).

 

Louisville +7 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Motivation has been a large factor in these bowl games, and I think that their has to be an edge here for Louisville as they are going against a big name opponent and want to continue their strong finish to the 2014 campaign and send Bobby Petrino home with a double-digit win season in his first year back in the Bluegrass state.  Georgia is loaded with talented players as always but this is yet another year where they underachieved and struggled to reach to lofty expectations that were placed on them.  To top it off they suffered a demoralizing defeat to their little brother (Georgia Tech) and now they have to get excited about a bowl game in Charlotte?  Not exactly a recipe for a motivated team.  Match-up wise, this is a pretty mediocre Georgia defense (when compared to some of their defenses of the past) and they really struggled up front, only ranking 54th in my run defense rankings and only 5oth in sack percentage.  Louisville isn’t a great running team but they are a team who uses the run to set up the pass.   The Cardinal passing numbers are also pretty poor but they are greatly impacted by the absence of DeVante Parker (who missed 7 games).  Parker is a first round NFL draft pick caliber talent and his return should make this Louisville offense much more dynamic.  While Georgia does come from the better conference, their SEC schedule was relatively easy as they missed many of the really good teams from the SEC West (the Bulldogs did not have to play Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU or Texas A&M) and as a result their SOS is actually pretty comparable to Louisville   This is the best match-up that the Belk Bowl has ever had, and I expect that we will see a very competitive football game.  Give me the points with the much better defense and the team who I believe has more reason to be excited to be here.  Louisville 24 Georgia 27

 

Clemson – Oklahoma Under 49.5 Risking 0.55 units to win 0.5 unit

Clemson – Oklahoma 1H Under 24.5 Risking .575 units to win 0.5 unit

When the news came out that DeShaun Watson was going to miss the bowl game, I went ahead and immediately locked in a big play on Oklahoma on a Pick’em line.  I also circled a play on the under, and while both numbers have moved towards the sides I like only one of them is still playable.  I believe that Clemson is an excellent under team this season, they have one of the nation’s top defenses and when Watson is out they actually rate as one of my least efficient offensive units in the country.  If Clemson had a decent run game they may be able to take some heat off of the QB position, but the Tigers rank just #107 in my running game rankings.  To add to their misery here they have lost OC Chad Morris to SMU, and should struggle with an OU team who’s biggest strength was against the run (my #12 ranked run defense).  Clemson also has my #122 ranked red zone offense, so in the rare event when they do reach the red zone I wouldn’t be surprised to see them struggling to come away with points.  Oklahoma has had injury issues of their own under center (Trevor Knight is expected to play) and have mainly focused on running the ball this year (#5 ranked run game, #27 in % rushing attempts).  Clemson was excellent all over the defensive end of the field this year, but their strength lies in their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage, and I expect them to make things very difficult for OU to consistently run the football.   I expect to see Clemson to look to play a field position type of game here where they approach this contest conservatively and rely on their defense yet again to keep them in the game.  Oklahoma 24 Clemson 13

Duke – Arizona State Under 67 -110 Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This is a runaway total to me on a game that I lined at 56.  We have a good offense (ASU) against what is a pretty solid defense, and a Duke offense that is very grind-it-out going against a Sun Devil team who struggled this season with the high flying offenses of the PAC-12.  I see Duke really struggling to move the ball here, but having decent defensive success at preventing Arizona State from moving the ball in big chunks.   The under here is also buoyed here by two teams who ranked very highly in turnover margin and who are both pretty good at protecting the football.  This is an decent match-up for Arizona State, as Duke isn’t a team who is really built to exploit their defensive weaknesses of tackling in the secondary and preventing big plays.   Duke also has my #1 special teams unit, so they should be able to limit returns against a Arizona State team that generally has better athletes.  I think it’s a tight game that ASU finds a way to win late.  Arizona State 28 Duke 24

Miami Hurricanes -3 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

This line is dropping as the game approaches but I have to take a chance on Miami here as I made the Canes -10 here.  South Carolina had their worst defense in a long time (my #110 unit) and really struggled at defending the big play which is where Miami excelled (#8 big play offense vs #94 big play defense).  The biggest concerns for Miami are their late season swoon after losing to FSU and the coaching mismatch but I expect  that South Carolina has plenty of reasons to be flat (lost to rival Clemson last time out) and that the Ole Ball Coach just wants the season to be over.  Give me Duke Johnson and Miami with a strong finish to the season Canes 41 South Carolina 28

Boston College – Penn State Under 40.5 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I made this total 36, which is a nice value in a game that figures to be very low scoring.  Penn State is my #1 ranked defense and is facing a BC team who runs a relatively simple scheme; if you account for Alex Murphy consistently then you will be able to greatly limit the success of their misdirection running game.  Penn State runs a very curious offense in that they throw a lot but are really bad at it (my #127th ranked passing game with a 54% completion percentage a 9-15 TD-INT ratio). Both of these do a lot of things that lead to low scoring games; they both prevent explosive plays (#34 for BC, #1 for PSU), they both limit opponents ability to move the ball (both top 15 in fewest FD’s a game allowed).  Both teams are well coached and will likely approach this game very conservatively, I think Penn State pulls out a close one where either team may not reach 20 points.  Penn State 17 BC 14

 

North Carolina – Rutgers Over 68 -105 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I have a small lean to Rutgers as a side here but don’t really want to play it when what feels like the much better play is the total.  What we have here is a game that points to being a shootout.  Both of these teams really struggled defensively this year in several of my key stats and are playing on a fast track in the dome in a bowl game that feels unlikely to draw much defensive intensity.  My match-up statistics made this number 72 so I see some line value as well.

These are both teams who have been burned repeatedly by big plays (Rutgers ranks #124 in this stat, UNC #120) and have offenses that have been relatively explosive (#48 in offensive big plays for Rutgers, #45 for UNC) when they have the ball.  Both of these teams have porous red zone defenses (Rutgers #61, UNC #120) and rank in my top 25 in offensive red zone efficiency.  While neither team has a great offense these are 2 of the worst 15 teams in the country in defensive yards per play allowed.  Give me the over in a game where I don’t expect a lot of defensive intensity and I do expect both teams to open up the playbooks in a wide-open affair.  Rutgers 41 UNC 38

Central Florida -2 Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units

UCF – NC State Under 49 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I have refrained from double dipping on too many games this season but I have to step away from that and take a shot on both the side and the total in this game.  I see this game as a tremendous obstacle for my Wolfpack, their going against a really good defense that will have a ton of time to prepare for them.  The issue for State is that their offense is relatively limited in it’s ability to stretch defenses and as a result the fundamentally solid defenses they have faced have been able to completely shut them down.  They have a QB who I like in Jacoby Brissett but the explosive play makers who make defenses respect the edges just aren’t there.  I see a game where UCF is able to completely control the LOS defensively and really limit NC State from moving the ball.  UCF does not have a great offense but they have a truly dominant defense and I expect them to be able to do well in the field position battle and pull away for the win.  UCF 24 NC State 14