YTD 20-9 +10.41 units

Week 11 saw us come out in the red for only the 2nd time this season as Boston College and Syracuse faltered after promising starts in their respective games.  In hindsight, Syracuse should not have been a play with their top 2 quarterbacks inactive, but I still felt pretty good about the spot and match-up for Boston College.  Credit goes to Duke & Louisville for finding a way to win tight games on the road.

Week 12 in the ACC is a (mostly) attractive slate this week, we get what is potentially the ACC game of the year in FSU-Miami as well as another top 25 match-up in Clemson-Georgia Tech.  It’s a relatively light slate in the ACC this week with only 5 match-ups, but every team out there still has something valuable to play for, whether it is their first ACC Win (Wake Forest) or continued involvement in the national playoff conversation (Florida State).  This should be another exciting week in the ACC, so let’s get on with it!

Week 12 ACC Selections

Unfortunately time was very short this week, so write-ups are extremely brief.  But I wanted to post them all here as I really like this card. Good luck guys!

Wake Forest Demon Deacons +17 Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

I made this line NCSU -13.5 but even then had a hard time seeing a play on this Woflpack team; doesn’t this just feel like two teams heading in opposite directions.  It’s incredibly difficult to imagine laying 17 points in a conference game with a team who is 1-5 in ACC play with an average margin of -18 points per game (average score NCSU 20 ACC Opponent 38.  Wake is roughly equivalent to that (ACC Scores: Wake 11 Opponent 30) but they are the ones getting 3 scores!  It’s just difficult to see State moving the ball consistently with their offense that has struggled the last couple of months and is playing a Wake team coming off a 20-34 loss to Clemson that may have been their best performance of the season.  State should win this game but their isn’t very much about this team that suggests the ability to pull away from teams, and even with a terrible offense Wake should be able to move the football against what may be the leagues worst defense.  State 27 Wake 20

Pittsburgh – North Carolina Over 66 (-110) Risking 0.55 units to win 0.5 units

North Carolina has the worst defense in the league and is playing a Pittsburgh team who is going to batter them at the line of scrimmage and move the ball all game long.  Marquise Williams has finally found some rhythm offensively this year and should be able to move the ball on a Pittsburgh team who has struggled at times in giving up the big play.  Both of these defenses are poorly ranked in my explosive play index (#84 for Pitt, #124 for UNC) and have struggled to keep opponents out of the end zone in the red zone ( #105 red zone effeciency D for Pitt, #97 for UNC).  I see another UNC shoot-out in a  game I made the total at 72.

Miami +3 (1 unit)

FSU tightrope act should be tested again against one of the best big play teams in the country who won’t be intimidated by the Noles and their long win streak.  Miami has the 2nd best talent level in the conference and I believe that they are finally ready to step into the national spotlight under Al Golden.  Big game for Duke Johnson tonight a year after his season ending injury vs FSU.

Georgia Tech +3 (1 unit)

I made Georgia Tech -2 when factoring in the return of Watson for Clemson, so I have to take the value here with the home dog that has gone under the radar down the stretch and is led by their most productive option attack in years.  In what figures to be a surprisingly cold day in Atlanta take the points at home with the much better ground attack.

Virginia Tech +4 (0.5 unit)

Virginia Tech has been a huge disappointment but  this game finds them in a good spot, coming off a bye against a Duke team who looks a little worn down to me.  I see a big game today for Michael Brewer in a contest that should be close all the way until the end.