YTD 19-7 +11.51 units

Week 10 only saw two selections posted in this space, with an easy loser on the Louisville-FSU Under and an easy winner on Boston College to cover the points against Virginia Tech.  That brings us to 6 of 7 winning weeks for the season (I abstained from posting for 3 weeks) and a very healthy 73% winning percentage.

This week, we see what is a very attractive ACC card with several tight spreads as we continue to work to separate out the middle class of the league into the teams that are going bowling and the teams that will be staying home for Christmas.  Just about everyone is still alive for the ACC Title game race in the Coastal, while in the Atlantic it would now take a significant Florida State slip-up to lose the title game bid.  On to Week 11!

 

Saturday Edge
YTD	19	7	11.51	73.08%
	Wins	Losses	Units	Win%
NCAAF Week 1	5	1	3.45	83.33%
NCAAF Week 2	2	1	0.95	66.67%
NCAAF Week 3	6	1	3.94	85.71%
NCAAF Week 4	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 5	1	2	-0.70	33.33%
NCAAF Week 6	2	1	1.40	66.67%
NCAAF Week 7	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 8	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 9	2	0	2.00	100.00%
NCAAF Week 10	1	1	0.48	50.00%

Syracuse Orange +3.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

This is another hold-your-nose type of bet, with Duke once again looking like the class of the Coastal and Syracuse coming off a loss to an NC State team that had lost 12 straight ACC games.  Add in the fact that the Orange are down to their 3rd string quarterback and this seems like a walk away win for Duke, right?  But upon closer inspection this is a very difficult match-up for Duke. Defensively, the Orange match up really well here as they boast my 5th ranked run D to help nullify Duke’s power run game that has been their offenses biggest strength (I have Duke ranked 7th in running efficiency).  While Syracuse is banged up on the offensive line and at QB, they are going against a Duke front line that has struggled against the run  (83rd ranked run effeciency D) so I expect that Syracuse can take some of the pressure off of new QB Austin Wilson by working to establish the ground game early and often.

While Duke is 3-1 and in the driver’s seat in the Coastal it should be said that the Devils have caught several breaks in some close games, earning each of their 3 ACC wins by a TD or less.  The Devils have only played one home game in the last 7 weeks and last week I think we saw some signs that this is a worn down football team.  I’m going to go ahead and call for the lookahead from Duke (VT at home next week) and I think their road weariness catches up to them in a game that Syracuse needs to find a way to win to earn bowl eligibility.   Cuse 24 Duke 20

 

Boston College Eagles +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

This should be a fantastic football game to watch if you appreciate old school football with well coached teams and really strong defenses.  Both of these teams have been really good in all facets defensively, but a couple of things point me towards BC here.  We get Louisville in a sort of flat spot, where they are coming off of a highly disappointing loss after blowing a big lead vs FSU, but also in a bit of a lookahead spot with a trip to South Bend on deck next week.  This is a game that I made a PK before considering the spot, so getting more than a FG at home with the much better running team (BC = #22 for me, Louisville = #116) is highly appealing in what figures to be a tight game.  Tight games also tend to swing on turnovers, so we get a bit of added comfort knowing that our side has only turned the ball over 7 times this year vs FBS opposition, 8th in the nation.  BC has been an under the radar team in vegas all season and I think Vegas got them wrong again this week.  Give me the Eagles straight up here as well for a little added value.  Eagles 31 Cardinals 21

Wake Forest  Demon Deacons +21 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 unit

We are starting our week in the ACC with a play that is not for the faint of heart.  Wake Forest is as bad as advertised this season, having gone 1-6 vs FBS foes with a 95-190 scoring disadvantage.  The weakness of the Wake Forest offense has been well categorized by many this season, but it goes without saying that it is impressive in this high scoring era to only top 20 points once in 7 FBS games.  So what can we possibly like about this match-up with a Clemson team that is having another outstanding season?

While Clemson continues to win football games, their doing so in a way that is very unusual for recent followers of the Tigers.  Since QB Deshaun Watson went down vs Louisville, the Tigers have really struggled offensively, failing to break 20 points in any of their last 3 games (though going 3-0 over that span).  Watson is a very big part of their offense and is not expected to start the game tonight.  Even when Watson has been healthy, the Tigers have greatly struggled to run the ball (my 118th ranked rushing attack this year, averaging 2.93 ypc vs FBS teams) and have in general have been very limited offensively.  When laying big points on the road you need to be able to rely on an offense to make explosive plays (93rd in my big play rankings) and to consistently pick up chunks of yardage (4.97 yards per play, only 101st nationally).  You also need to be able to finish red zone drives with touchdowns, and the Tigers rank 126th in that category (and are going against a Wake Red Zone D that ranks 15th in this category).  In short, I just don’t trust the Clemson offense to be able to run away with this game, especially against a Wake Forest defense that has easily been the strength of their team.  How often does the 101st ranked offense in the country lay 3 TD’s on the road?

Offensively it’s a brutal match-up for Wake just as it has been almost every week.  They are almost equally bad at passing (128th) as they are at rushing (126th) and are going against a Clemson defense that ranks in the top 15 in both categories.  All I can ask of this Wake offense is that they don’t turn the ball over constantly and give Clemson a short field to work with.  Wake has given up 6 defensive TDs this season so it’s going to be important for John Wolford to make good, quick decisions.  On the plus side, Wake Forest has a pretty good punting unit (45 yards per punt, 17th nationally) and has yet to allow a 20+ yard return so it is vital that they force Clemson into as many long drives as possible.  All we can ask is that Wake break  an occasional big play to get into scoring position because it is very unlikely that they are able to consistently sustain drives against this unit.  Not exactly encouraging, but realistic.

I admit that this is an ugly wager, but it is a line that I believe to be inflated (I made it -17) and it is the type of spot that an experienced and talented team like Clemson could easily overlook.  In making intelligent wagers we have to look to sometimes have to look to take good prices on bad teams, and I believe that is what we have here tonight.   I made the total 41.5 so I also lean toward the under in a game that will likely be pretty ugly.  Clemson 23 Wake Forest 9

 

Will have more to add to this thread tomorrow.  I won’t use all of these here, but these are the games that I’ve already played this week in the ACC:

Georgia Tech -3

Cuse +3.5

BC +3

UVA +20

 

Best of Luck!