The Arizona Wildcats are coming off a rout win over Washington State, but I’m mostly convinced it was due to poor game plan and execution by the Cougars which helped the runaway score.  As a result the opening line vs the Bruins reflected the victory by making the Wildcats only 4 point dogs on their second consecutive road game.  But since this time the line has moved to 6.5 despite Arizona getting 75% of the betting action.

I have written about this topic before, but “reverse line movement” is critical to identify.  Ignoring these types of movements can cost a bettor dearly.  Here’s a quick description, in case you’re unfamiliar with the term.

Reverse line movement refers to a line move that contradicts the public percentages.  In this case, Arizona opened at +4 with 75% of betting action, yet the line moved against the Wildcats, making them +6.5. 

This is a red flag for me.  At this point it’s either the Bruins or no play.  So let’s dissect the match-up a little more and find some reasons to lay the number.

• Coach Jim Mora is 10-3 at home, while Rodriquez is 4-6 on the road never beating UCLA.

• The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following ATS win.

• Although routing the Cougs last week, Washington State was able to put up over 500 total yards.  The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 450 yards in their previous game.

• Wildcats are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

I’m definitely more of an underdog bettor and laying points always makes me uncomfortable, but I believe this is the right side.  My numbers have this game at -12 UCLA and with the public in disagreement, it’s a bonus.

Consider: UCLA -6.5

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.