Are Post-Boise Blues Hitting Chris Petersen? 

One of the clearest things jumping out at boxscore readers this season is that the Washington Huskies are struggling on offense. That’s been partially hidden to the media because the team faced a very soft early schedule. It was exposed very clearly this past Saturday when new head coach Chris Petersen’s side ran into the strong defense of Stanford. You may have watched that 20-13 loss on TV. Washington’s offense only scored six points last week, with the rest coming on a defensive fumble return.

Here’s a quick review of Washington’s offensive yardage numbers this season vs. its four FBS opponents. The opposing defense’s current rank in yards-per-play is in parenthesis. 

[box] WASHINGTON’S OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES

336 yards and 4.5 yards-per-play vs. Hawaii (#40 in defense at 5.0 ypp allowed)

454 yards and 5.5 yards-per-play vs. Illinois (#73 in defense at 5.5 ypp allowed)

337 yards and 5.0 yards-per-play vs. Georgia State (#92 in defense at 5.9 allowed)

179 yards and 2.6 yards-per-play vs. Stanford (#2 in defense at 3.3 ypp allowed) [/box]

Note that Washington did play a high scoring game when stepping down in class against Eastern Washington of the FCS (which also helped derail media recognition). They beat the Eagles 59-52, who would then play a 52-51 game with Montana State the next week. (Hey Coach Petersen, get Montana State on the schedule!) 

Washington was able to match yards-per-play “par” against the poor defense of Illinois, but was at least half-a-yard below the season-to-date average of their other three opponents. And, obviously, those other three opponents would be allowing fractionally higher full season averages if they hadn’t enjoyed the benefit of playing Washington. When the season is in the books, a Pac 12 offense totaling 336 and 337 yards vs. Hawaii and Georgia State respectively may look ridiculous. 

Maybe this doesn’t mean much, and Chris Petersen will eventually get settled in at Washington as he leads the program to greatness. It’s only four games. I wouldn’t suggest judging any coach on his first four games. But, in this case, we do have some precedents that loom very large over proceedings. 

Former Boise State head coaches have a poor track record when they step up in class! 

• Dirk Koetter used success at Boise State to earn the job as head man at Arizona State. While a five-year record of 40-34 was hardly a disaster, the Sun Devils were just 21-28 in league action during his tenure. The program had expected to make a splash when they hired the hot new name in coaching (Koetter was just 42 when he took over ASU in 2001). Instead, they settled in as habitual also-rans. The administration and fans tired of the hamster wheel. Koetter has settled in as an assistant coach in the NFL since leaving ASU. 

• Dan Hawkins went from dominating the Western Athletic Conference at Boise State from 2001-2005 to the tune of 37-3 (53-11 overall, with four bowl bids) to utterly destroying the Colorado program from 2006-2010. It’s 2014 and the Colorado program still hasn’t recovered! It’s one of the single worst riches to rags stories in the sport in terms of a coach’s on-field reputation. It’s one thing to have disappointing results (Koetter). It’s another to destroy a program! (Note: in 2013 Hawkins was hired to coach the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League…he was fired after 5 games!). 

So, having success at Boise State has a way of creating illusions about what may be ahead when coaches step up in class. Maybe Chris Peterson is a much better head coach than those first two men. But, his early struggles are at least reminiscent of what happened before. The four-game sample size vs. FBS opponents is more menacing in that light. 

Some misleading final scores from last week… 

• UCLA beat Arizona State 62-27 last Thursday despite being outgained 626-580. The Bruins had an interception return for a TD, a kickoff return for a TD, and won the turnover category 0-4. I don’t want to suggest the wrong team won. ASU picked up a ton of garbage time yardage playing from way behind. But, UCLA’s victory margin was a bit polluted. 

• Temple beat Connecticut 36-10 (referring to last Saturday for everything from this point on) despite getting outgained 307-272. UCONN has a knack for giving other teams TDs this season. Temple scored on an interception return, on a fumble return, and with a safety. 

• Louisville was much more dominant against Wake Forest than the 20-10 final score made it sound. The Cardinals won total yardage 421-100, holding the Deacons to -22 yards rushing. Wake Forest got its only touchdown on a fumble return. 

• Texas wasn’t nearly as dominant over Kansas as the 23-0 final score made it sound. Texas only won yardage 329-313, but won turnovers 1-4, and had TD drives of 13, 18, and 27 yards (while missing an extra point). Kansas coach Charlie Weis was fired soon afterward. Texas coach Charlie Strong has built a solid defense but a relatively helpless offense. 

• Florida International beat UAB 34-20 last week despite getting outgained 380-297. FIU won the turnover category 0-6, and scored two non-offensive TDs. 

• Boise State suffered some blues of its own under new head coach Bryan Harsin. The Broncos won total yardage at Air Force 467-335, but lost on the scoreboard 28-14 thanks to a 7-2 loss in the turnover category. Harsin was supposed to be an offensive mastermind. SEVEN turnovers against defenders who have to fit into cockpits! 

• Nevada beat San Jose State 21-10 despite getting outgained 446-256. Nevada won the turnover category 0-3, and scored one of its three touchdowns on an interception return. 

See you again next Wednesday.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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