Closing Line Value

It seems like the talk of the sports gaming world lately has been about Closing Line Value. The closing line is the line at the sportsbooks when the game is about to start. It is the most accurate line because all of the money has been bet. Closing line value is determined by comparing the line you bet vs the line that was last available before the game started. Regardless of winning or losing your bet, the overall theory is that if you are beating the closing line, you are getting value in your plays. It is also stated that if a capper is beating the closing line over a small sample size, you can tell more about a capper than his wins and losses over that small sample size. It is also an indicator to sportsbook to determine “sharp” money. Sportsbooks have openly stated that they worry more about a player that beats the closing line in the short term than a hot streak.
I have broken down all my plays for this year:
As you can see here, I have a Closing Line Value of 2.6 points to start the year. 2 of my plays that have low CLV(North Dakota and Kent St) were played hours before gametime so it was hard to get CLV on those plays. I have still included them in this analysis to show transparency. I am not going to hide any of the plays to make myself look better. If we look at the openers that I have been stressing, you can see that the average CLV of those plays is higher at 3.2 points.
Let’s compare.
One of the top handicapping services out there has an avg CLV of their plays of 3.1 Points. They are getting 0.5 points higher CLV than myself. But you would also be paying close to $2,000 for that service for the whole season.
I put out all my picks on twitter and you can find the lines available at books that are widely available. I usually refer to 5Dimes or BetOnline. Both books are allowed to be used worldwide including Americans. I am not using a line from a book that is slow to move their lines and knowing ahead of time that they will move because they are behind. I am not inferring that anyone does that. I am just saying that I do not do that.
My point in all this is Don’t miss out on a good thing. I will be offering my services and all my plays for the rest of the year for Free on Saturday Edge. If anyone has any questions, feel free to write a comment or send a tweet at me and I will do my best to give an honest answer. I have been around the block on the internet in the sports gaming community. What I have found is that there are few people that want to take the time and work hard and be honest in this industry. I have joined Saturday Edge because all these guys give an honest effort to give you their picks and spend alot of time handicapping. This will soon become one of the best CFB handicapping places on the web. Take advantage of it now! Especially when a lot of stuff is FREE.
I’ve followed and have been making selections based on where I believe the line will move alongside your Sunday initial picks. What are your thoughts on the MU vs IU game on Saturday? I feel like the shift in value has made MU at -13.5 an attractive line.
I do like MU as well. Indiana looked so poor on defense vs BG. I also wasn’t impressed by their offense. BG made alot of mental errors in the secondary leading to Indiana easy points but BG was moving the ball so easy vs Indiana. MU has looked good, they do have a tough slate on deck so as long as they dont look ahead, I could see MU rolling. I wouldnt play it at 14 or over though
Great write-up Jimmy. In the 1st 3 weeks I played a total of 6 games on Sunday night at 5dimes and BookMaker and in all 6 games I beat the closing lines by several points but man have I messed up this week. Sunday night I was all over Missouri -17 and it has been bet down to 13 or 14. No way of buying out of this with a 3 to 4 point difference I just hate when I lose LV like that but 6 out of 7 is not bad but I can’t believe how bad I missed this one. Good luck this week……….
Agreed. MU is now at -13 so I’m hoping on board. I really like Virginia and Auburn as well. Virginia is a well-oiled machine since they have so much senior-leadership. Should finish the season in the upper tier of ATS records. I’m reallllly hoping we can get the Auburn line at -7.