YTD – 5-4 +$273

 

Well last week was one of those weeks.  Hit the bad side of 2 ballgames. Very easily should have been a 3-0 week and ended up 1-2.  The read on Kentucky was good and they kept Ohio at a decent from the 2nd qtr onwards. The Miami Ohio loss was a bummer.  Miami Ohio has 450 yards of offense and only 10 points to show for it. 6 TURNOVERS hurt. Miami Ohio was still up 7 towards the end of the 3rd quarter and they threw a 55 yard Pick 6 to get the game tied up and then on the 2nd last drive of the game, EKU ran a double reverse pass to score  a 43 yd TD Pass to hurt us.  Same story with Western Kentucky. We had a 14 pt cushion going into the 4th quarter but WKU turned the ball over twice and one was a 77 yard INT return for a TD. So what should have been a 3-0 weekend, turned out to churn a loss. But that is sports gambling, it happens. Hopefully we get some luck later on in the future but the plays were right in my opinion.

 

On to this week.

 

 

Louisiana Tech +3.5 at North Texas risking $321 to win $300

Two teams coming off big wins here. Digging a little deeper though, you can see that Louisiana Tech has more of the makings to be the better team IMO. Both these teams lost to big schools. Oklahoma and Texas. We pretty much know Oklahoma is a top 10 team in the country at worst and Texas has ? surrounding it, winning vs UNT and getting killed at home to BYU. The following week, both these teams got huge wins. La Tech got a huge road win vs the Sun Belt preseason favs ULL and UNT beat up SMU at home. The UNT win would be nice but we found out 2 days later that SMU was in shambles, losing their QB and HC June Jones resigning. Meanwhile, La Tech got a huge road win vs a team that still could be Sun Belt champs at the end of the year and ran and passed the ball really well. If you look at both of UNT’s games, they struggled to pass the ball. 15 yards passing vs Texas(that is not a misprint) and 105 yards vs SMU. They did run the ball really well vs SMU, so that negates the fact that they didnt pass as well. In this game, I see it being back and forth but I think La Tech’s offense gets a little lead here and I do not trust UNT to come back with a passing game and create some mistakes and La Tech pulling away late.

 

Central Michigan + 7 vs Syracuse risking $214 to win $200

 

This is a pretty simple scenario for me. I like getting a TD at home with a team that should have a good chance to win this game straight up.  CMU was one of my sleeper MAC teams to win the conference. They struggled at the start with their first game vs Chattanooga but came back and pulled away. They built on their good ending by blasting Purdue on the road. Even though it is Purdue, CMU beat up a Big Ten school on the road. That is a good sign to me that they have some talent there for a MAC school. Syracuse struggled mightily at home vs Villanova squeaking out a home win in OT. I have Syracuse being an average football team and I really think they shouldn’t be a TD fav on the road here and I see value with my MAC sleeper here.

 

Houston Team Total over 20 risking $330 to win $300

 

Was going to bet this at 20.5 but 20 popped up at 5dimes and I really like this one.  I am not sold on BYU being a great defense. They played 2 poor offensive football teams in UConn and Texas.  UConn had opportunities to put up 20 on BYU themselves but careless plays and turnovers and bad coaching hurt them. Texas with Swoopes in there is not a good offense and everyone knows they have no passing game and I feel running at BYU is playing to that D’s strength. One of the reasons I like this team total is I believe Houston will get alot of possessions due to tempo. While Houston has slowed down their tempo a bit, BYU is one of the fastest teams in the country and there will not be a shortage of plays. I feel this BYU team can be had in the air and I believe Houston should be able to put up some points.  I’ll add to the fact that BYU may be up a bit and we could get a garbage time TD with a team that loves to pass.

 

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