College football betting is a passion of mine. I have invested many years learning what stats, trends and situations work better than others.

With the advent of the Internet I have spent nearly a decade discussing college football betting on forums and in chat rooms. I have scoured the unending pages of the web searching for information and advice on how to beat the bookies.

One of the reasons GoSooners and I created our 7 core college football betting tips was to try and provide some good, solid college football betting advice that was not the “same old” information or strategies that everyone else was reading and practicing.

Admittedly the majority of our tips and advice are based on “best practices” that we have used successfully over the many years that we have been betting on college football. However, they are not what I would consider or describe as “cutting edge.”

 

Thinking Outside the Box

So how does one become “cutting edge” when it comes to  college football betting?

How does one stay ahead of the “capping curve” when the oddsmakers are using sophisticated algorithms to create the point spreads and the general public has access to all the same information, stats and trends that you and I do?

That’s easy, just think differently than the oddsmakers and the general public. Come up with your own capping methods that don’t rely on the same information, stats and trends that everyone else, including the bookmakers, are using.

OK, that’s easier said than done, no doubt, but not impossible.

 

A West Coast Handicapping Legend

And to prove my point I will introduce you to one of the best college football handicappers I know, and his methods are completely unique and transparent.

GoSooners and I met Conan at theRX many years ago. Conan was the first person we thought of to join us here at The Saturday Edge, and the following is some of the correspondence that he and I have exchanged concerning that point.

However, as you’ll read, Conan is much more interested in talking about college football betting than anything else.  And the more I read of him explaining his handicapping methods, the more I wanted to share the information with you. I also found a lot of humor in his writing style, hopefully that was his intention.

So without further preface let’s get right to some of the good stuff.

 

Detecting MOVEMENT in Team Rank

Pezgordo: Could you give me your opinion on the best PAC-12 position groups (example: QB – USC; LB – Stanford, etc)?

Conan: It serves perhaps as a means of evaluating expectations as to who ranks where in the various categories you listed, however when it comes right down to handicapping individual match-ups, those numbers apply much more effectively to OOC contests, meaning how well do you think team X from the Pac-12 will stack up vs team Y from another conference.  The reason why I point this out is because lines are very tough to decipher using the same sort of rankings and numbers used by the bookmakers and just about every other public board or discussion group out there and they all lose money.  HA!  The best way to use this information is to detect recent MOVEMENT in rank or position and bet on that!  These are a few of the “secrets” to my success.

 

Understanding a Team’s Personality

The following answer is to my question as to whether he (Conan) would be interested in writing for The Saturday Edge? It is not so much an answer as an outline to his unique college football handicapping style. There is some excellent information here.

Conan: I think now that I have had a chance to see more Pez, what I think would benefit me the most (as it would benefit you) would for me to inject information in a freelance style where I might attempt to outline a team using characteristics that are unique to it and different for all others, hopefully contributing to a higher level of winning wagers, a higher more profound accuracy in my picks etc,

In essence I would be attempting to understand a team’s or a school’s personality by looking at some patterns that could easily impact gameflow one way or another… then look for some kind of proof that this has happened.  So this time of the year, it would be best for me not to question the freedom of expression I have afforded myself, particularly where I delve into issues such as team strengths, how they compare or rank vs one another – some things need to be looked at, but not YET! The caterpillar knows when the time comes to transform itself into a butterfly.-!!  What I am saying is pay as much attention to a team’s environment and culture as you would to its coaching staff and players.  It’s all useful information.

Noticing my initial feeling about an issue or what I believe to be the current order of rankings or a particular team’s rank compared  to my last judgment call gives me a good idea about my retention and limitations.  Knowing when to stop is as important as knowing when to start the handicapping process.  When information dries up, you will find that what you are looking for isn’t available.  If the practice sessions are closed, then don’t get arrested climbing over fences.  Move on.

 

A Different Approach

The one size fits all approach doesn’t always work with me.  I don’t require very much information about (e.g.) UCLA’s QB’s YET because there isn’t much to be had that is relevant to what I need to know, I’ll leave it alone for a while then come back and revisit it, hopefully in time to do some good… and so on as I work my way around the league.  I have some answers, not all answers by a long shot, and not enough answers spread around in a way that provides me with enough valid counter information to set up an internal dialogue on the subject.  So I’ll work on other issues and deepen my knowledge in other ways…. then, by the time I am ready for the internal debate, I am nearly certain about making a decision to wager.

To make a long story short, I can develop a huge amount of data storage in my mind and in bookmarks and , allow myself the luxury of letting my mind and fate decide where my heart and my eyes want to go. And for the time being, that means I need to do a lot of random browsing and set up my anchor points (areas of interest or information) all around the conference and the rest of the sport before I start to look into specifics with much urgency.  If I don’t or if I try to force an opinion based on lack of information, Alla will take back one virgin.

 

College Football Zen

You can say what you want about Conan’s writing style, I find it entertaining, others might not, but you can’t argue that it isn’t a unique approach to college football betting. His handicapping methods are definitely not conventional, but his results speak to their effectiveness.

I will have Part II of my ongoing correspondence with Conan next week, so make sure you stop by. He will also be joining us this fall as our resident PAC-12/West Coast Guru, though his exact start date will depend on when his college football muses inspire his creativity. LOL!

Please let me know what you think and feel free to share any unique college football betting methods that you may have. Also, if you want to ask Conan a question please leave it in the comments section below or send it to me at pezgordo at saturdayedge.com. Thanks – Pez.