We have one day of college football behind us and already we have seen upsets.  Forget point spreads, we’re talking outright winners who were 7 to 10 point dogs.  The average bettor sometimes get caught up in information from media and friends and over thinks it.  I believe this to be such with Washington vs Hawaii.  Here might be a few reasons why:

Their prepared!  They’ve had all summer long to get ready…right?

I’m constantly reminding clients that we are betting on 18-21 year old kids and unlike the NFL who get 4 pre-season games as warm-usp, the only live action college athletes see before the season begins are scrimmages with each other.  So “butterflies” go without saying, throw in a first year Quarterback (especially on the road) and it quickly can become a disaster. Only a few QB’s are able to play at a high level under these types of circumstances.  And when they do, they are considered elite.

How about the coach?

Yes, even coaches have nerves, especially with today’s expectations.  Head coach’s making their university debut will have their battles early in the season.  Getting the players to buy into the new culture is hard enough, let alone trying to win football games.  Petersen is a proven leader and Head Coach, but on the road, with an inexperienced Quarterback it will be a challenge even for a successful coach like him.

How about last year’s success?

What about it?  Too many times the AP has not a clue as to whom deserves to be in the top-25.  So instead of doing their homework, they look over last year’s team, scan over the schedule and put a ranking next to the school’s name.  In my opinion, this puts a target on them.  The opponent thinks all summer long how great it would be, to beat a ranked team.  Meanwhile the team that’s been crowned with immediate success walks around campus believing all what’s been said.  The public gets caught up in it too!  Vegas knows this and puts a line out that is higher than it should be, because they know the average bettor will believe what they read or see.

So, you’re saying Hawaii is going to win?

Hell no!  But, laying 18 points on their first game of the season, on the road, with inexperienced players at key positons is too high.  I like my chances with the Warriors.

Consider: Hawaii +18 

Good Luck!

Smitty

Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.